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Real-World Economics Review

The misuse of mathematics in economics

from Lars Syll Many American undergraduates in Economics interested in doing a Ph.D. are surprised to learn that the first year of an Econ Ph.D. feels much more like entering a Ph.D. in solving mathematical models by hand than it does with learning economics. Typically, there is very little reading or writing involved, but loads and loads of fast algebra is required. Why is it like this? … One reason to use math is that it is easy to use math to trick people. Often, if you make your...

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Reflections on the US election results

from Peter Radford Let the dust settle. Absorb the information embedded in the results. Take a deep breath and avoid partisan primping. First: this election was insanely expensive.  Candidates seeking election to Federal office spent an estimated $8.9 billion.  Their state level counterparts spent a further $7.8 billion.   Second:  all that expenditure had little effect.  Sure, the House changed hands, but by the slimmest of margins, and for all the...

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Inflation and policy: conceptual models matter

Summary: to understand inflation we should not use the neoclassical ‘one good, one worker, one sector, one piece of physical capital’ or Y = f(K,L) concept of production. We should use a concept looking at nominal production (Y(n)) with multiple interrelated sectors (‘S’), multiple products and capital conceptualized not as a physical entity but as ownership rights of land (including natural resources), depreciable capital and ‘non produced’ capital like patents and marketing rights:...

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DSGE models — a macroeconomic dead end

from Lars Syll Both approaches to DSGE macroeconometrics (VAR and Bayesian) have evident vulnerabilities, which substantially derive from how parameters are handled in the technique. In brief, parameters from formally elegant models are calibrated in order to obtain simulated values that reproduce some stylized fact and/or some empirical data distribution, thus relating the underlying theoretical model and the observational data. But there are at least three main respects in which...

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Neoliberal economics, Big Pharma and pandemics

from Imad Moosa   The spread of the virus has been aided by the neoliberal drive to privatise everything under the sun, including healthcare. Forty years of the privatisation of public health institutions (allegedly in the name of efficiency and for the benefit of consumers) has resulted in a disastrous situation as private healthcare providers have no commercial interest in preparing for or preventing emergencies. The spread has been aided by the lack of staff and material...

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Stress, a negative externality, is ubiquitous

from John Komlos  Stress, the body’s biological response to external threats, is generated in the economic system as a negative externality through countless pathways, that include long working hours, being underpaid, being evicted, income insecurity, unhealthy work environments, tight deadlines, being fired, long spells of unemployment, underemployment, low income relative to the median, reduction of earnings, unexpected medical expenses, college tuition, being victim of predatory...

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Is economics nothing but a library of models?

from Lars Syll Chameleons arise and are often nurtured by the following dynamic. First a bookshelf model is constructed that involves terms and elements that seem to have some relation to the real world and assumptions that are not so unrealistic that they would be dismissed out of hand. The intention of the author, let’s call him or her “Q,” in developing the model may be to say something about the real world or the goal may simply be to explore the implications of making a certain...

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The real economy is never in equilibrium

from Philip George What are vectors? . . . we defined a vector as a quantity having both magnitude and direction and represented it by an arrow. This makes sense in Euclidean 3-dimensional space. But in higher dimensions the idea of direction is not intuitive and we need a more formal definition that is consistent with the definition in three dimensions. In mathematics, an object is defined as a vector if it is an element in a vector space. This seems a circular...

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Knowledge and growth

from Lars Syll If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas. George Bernard Shaw Adam Smith once wrote that a really good explanation is “practically seamless.” Is there any such theory within one of the most important fields of social sciences — economic growth? In Paul Romer’s Endogenous Technological...

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Free trade theory fails to correspond to reality

from Jeff Ferry  For the last 90 years, the United States has pursued and advocated free trade. For the last 60 of those 90 years, American workers and other observers have watched America lose high-paying jobs to imports and asked: can this really be good for the American economy? Professional economists have answered, virtually unanimously, that yes, it is good, due to something called the Law of Comparative Advantage. They are wrong. Their free trade theory, based on the so-called...

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