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Some insights into (declining) US economic health

Summary:
In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually decelerating. And this will almost certainly hit earnings. The only question now is how far that deceleration goes. Some thoughts on this belowGermany and employment are badThe Fed is on hold, having rescinded its guidance for rate increases in 2019. And as I outlined y...

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In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually decelerating. And this will almost certainly hit earnings. The only question now is how far that deceleration goes. Some thoughts on this below
Germany and employment are bad
The Fed is on hold, having rescinded its guidance for rate increases in 2019. And as I outlined y...

Edward Harrison
I am a former European credit markets and M&A guy who started out as a diplomat. — so I have some pretty diverse interests.

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