– by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims once again continued their recent good streak. Bonddad Blog Initial claims declined -2,000 to 210,000, while the four-week moving average rose 2,500 to 211,250. Continuing claims, with the typical one-week delay, increased 4,000 to 1.807 million: While these aren’t the 50+ year lows we saw 18 months ago, they’re not far off. For forecasting purposes, the YoY% change for initial...
Read More »The good news on jobless claims continues
The good news on jobless claims continues – by New Deal democrat The good news on jobless claims continued this week, as initial claims declined -12,000 to 201,000. The four-week moving average also declined, by -3,500 to 215,250. Continuing claims, with the usual one-week delay, declined -27,000 to 1.862 million: Needless to say, this also helped the YoY comparisons, which are more important for forecasting purposes. Initial claims are...
Read More »Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century
Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000. Except for one week in September 2022, this is the lowest number in over 50 years (since 1969, to be more precise). The 4-week average declined -4,750 to 203,250,...
Read More »The good news on jobless claims continues
The good news on jobless claims continues – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first two are close to their post-pandemic lows of one year ago, and continuing claims are the lowest since the...
Read More »A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims
It appears there will be no layoffs pre-Christmas and Christmas. After Christmas, the delays in implementing EVs at GM will result in layoffs in Michigan. A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 205,000, while the four-week average declined -1,500 to 212,000. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1.865 million: No...
Read More »Jobless claims: good news all around
Jobless claims: good news all around – by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie for the 2nd lowest number in 10 months. The four week average declined -7,750 to 213,250. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 20,000 to 1.876 million: Even more importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes both for the weekly number and the...
Read More »Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold
Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims through September may have been affected by some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, and the last several weeks have...
Read More »Initial Jobless claims: were the recent lows just unresolved seasonality after all?
Initial claims: were the recent lows just unresolved seasonality after all? – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 5,000 to a 7 week high of 217,000 this week. The 4 week moving average rose 2,000 to 210,000 from its 9 month low of 208,000 last week. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims continued their recent sharp ascent, up 35,000 to 1.818 million. Aside from 2 weeks in April, this is the highest level of continuing...
Read More »Jobless claims continue near expansion lows
Jobless claims continue near expansion lows – by New Deal democrat Jobless claims continued very low last week, justifying taking down the “yellow caution flag” that had been in place for a number of months. Specifically, weekly new claims rose 10,000 to 210,000 – still a very low historical number. The more important four week moving average increased 1,250 to 207,500. Contrarily with a one-week lag, continuing claims rose sharply, up...
Read More »Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality
Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality – by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims rose 1,000 last week to 207,000. The more important 4 week moving average...
Read More »