Saturday , August 24 2019
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Tag Archives: Monetary System

The Fed overtightened. Now it’s behind the curve. Recession awaits

Sorry for the alarmist post title. But the Fed has completely bottled it. I’ve been warning for some time that it could go this way. And now, we are in in the endgame. First, the Fed overtightened through 2018. Then, forced at gunpoint by financial markets into a retreat this year, it has been very slow to recognize the tightening financial conditions. Now, it is so far behind the curve that a major recession is  breathing down our necks. Let me put this all together below. And...

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Why what economists are now saying about inflation matters

The US Personal Income and Outlays report for June 2019 came out this morning. It showed personal income increasing 0.4% and wages and salaries increasing 0.5% last month. These are good numbers. And in conjunction with a lot of other data we have seen recently, it should put to rest worries we have seen about an imminent recession. But, over the medium-term, it makes sense for economists to worry about a potential downturn, especially given the weakening growth we have seen in...

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Hippie-punching MMT

I have been trying to organize a decent exchange on MMT on the new financial media platform Real Vision. My first attempt got dropped because the conversation wasn’t forward looking, diving into the issues people care about, namely the likelihood that MMT-oriented policy prescriptions get executed and the ability of MMT-oriented policy prescriptions to deal with inflation, growth, inequality, or full employment. So I am still on the hunt, trying to organize a ‘debate’ around those...

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Are interest rates the most effective economic policy tool?

By Marshall Auerback This post first appeared on AlterNet Cutting rates at this juncture simply perpetuates current bubble-like conditions and therefore will make the ultimate outcome worse when the bubble inevitably bursts. The one silver lining in the nomination of political hack Steve Moore to the Federal Reserve is that it might spur a productive discussion on the benefits (or lack of them) of monetary policy as an instrument of economic growth. This is principally because it’s...

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US curve inversion worsens as the Fed acquiesces to market sentiment

Yesterday’s climbdown by the Federal Reserve on both interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction was not enough to satisfy the market’s disquiet about the US economy. Equity markets sold off and US Treasury yields rallied as the inversion in the middle of the yield curve steepened. What’s driving this is renewed concerns about the real economy. And ultimately, the Fed may have not proven itself dovish enough yesterday. Some thoughts below The real economy The big question now...

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