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by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for March 29 – April 2 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

One fairly unique service I think I provide is not just forecasting the next few months, but into the next year as well. So in the second half of last year I was writing about how all of the indicators were lining up for strong growth in 2021 if the pandemic could be brought under control.

Now I am beginning to look at 2022, and what I see are increasing signs of jumps in the prices of important middle class commodities and assets, mainly houses and gasoline. Which means, we could see the old-fashioned type of end of an economic boom.

As usual, clicking over and reading will not just bring you right up to the

By Joseph Joyce

The Need for a Global Corporate Tax Regime

When the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began its call for a reform of the rules of global taxes in order to clamp down on the avoidance of taxes by multinational corporations, its efforts looked quixotic. But the OECD persisted, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now participating in negotiations with the other OECD members to reform the (non-)system. While there is much left to negotiate, the broad framework of an agreement to establish a new regime, which governs where taxes are assessed and the determination of a global minimum tax, now exists.

A new volume edited by IMF economists Ruud A. de Mooij, Alexander D. Klemm and Victoria

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By New Deal democrat

Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution?

My long-form review and forecast of the housing market and its potential effect on the 2022 economy is up at Seeking Alpha.

If the market stays like 2014 when interest rates went up, no biggie. But if it’s more like the 1950s, we have a problem.

As usual, clicking over and reading should be informative for you, and it rewards me a little bit for my efforts.

Via Truthout , (https://truthout.org/articles/flood-risks-are-rising-amid-climate-change-but-congress-is-delaying-action) comes a reminder of a perennial problem:

Floods are the most common disaster in the United States. And the 2020 hurricane season was the busiest to date in the Atlantic — 73 percent more “active” than normal, The Washington Post reported, with a record number of storms breaking ground on U.S. soil, totaling $37 billion in damage. The frequency of what is known as “sunny day” or “high tide” flooding (flooding linked to sea level rise and visible as water bubbling up from storm drains into city streets) is also on the rise. In 2019, the median flood frequency doubled from 2000 levels, up to four days per year. That median is

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Via the Oklahoman comes this news on Republican state legislation. I believe Florida and other states are enacting radical ideology in more than the voting rights arena: Oklahoma charter schools granted local tax revenue in ‘seismic’ settlement

A groundbreaking settlement will fundamentally change the way charter schools are funded in Oklahoma, despite vehement opposition from the state’s top education official.
The Oklahoma State Board of Education voted 4-3 on Thursday in favor of an agreement with the Oklahoma Public Charter School Association to settle a 2017 lawsuit.
The charter school association called the agreement a “tremendous step” for equality in school funding.
State schools Superintendent Joy Hofmeister said the settlement could

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by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for March 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Both the nowcast and the short term forecast continue to be red hot. But interest rates continue to batter the long term forecast.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and reward me a tiny bit for the efforts I put in.

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We are in the process of making changes to the comment section of Angry Bear to tackle the issue of comments disappearing or being delayed in posting. We need feedback from readers on their experience Friday and over the weekend: e-mail Dan at [email protected] or Bill at [email protected]

–by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for March 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Although rising long term interest rates are likely to have consequences in 2022, 2021 is shaping up to be a blowout year for economic (and hopefully employment) growth, driven by dual huge monetary and fiscal stimuli.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the figurative moment, and reward me just a little bit for my efforts.

By Joseph Joyce

Financial Globalization and Inequality

The global financial crisis slowed the pace of financial globalization, while the impact of the pandemic on its future course is unclear. But enough time has elapsed to assess the record of integrated financial markets that greatly expanded in the 1990s and early 2000s. The evidence on one issue—financial openness and inequality—is clear: financial globalization has increased inequality.

Enrico D’Elia of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and Roberta De Santiss, also of ISTAT, analyzed this issue in their 2019 working paper, “Growth Divergence and Income Inequality in OECD Countries: The Role of Trade and Financial Openness.” They

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by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for March 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Two important data considerations this week: (1) for the first time, some YoY comparisons – e.g., restaurant reservations – are compared with data after the onset of the pandemic. The distortions will intensify next week and last at least through the end of April; and (2) long-term interest rates, in particular for Treasury bonds, have considerably affected the long leading forecast.

As usual, clicking over and reading brings you up to the virtual moment, and rewards me just a little bit for the effort I put in to generating the forecasts and nowcast.

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By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for February 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

After months of virtually no changes in any of the time frames, suddenly there is activity in all of them. Some of it:

– is short term noise due to the disaster in Texas, some

– is related to the pace and effects of vaccination availability against COVID-19, and

– some of it is the resulting change in long term interest rates.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment about the economy, and will bring me a penny or so for my troubles.

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AB currently uses a WordPress comment system which has been problematic. As a result, I have been researching other plug-in systems when readers have asked about functionality not available in WP.

The Disqus system seems to have the functionality that was requested (may be dependent upon web browser being used). An ad-free version can also be purchased for a yearly fee. Does anyone have experience with Disqus (Washington Monthly uses Disqus)? If you do and have an opinion of Disqus, please send me an e-mail: [email protected]

Briefly, Disqus Commenter functions include:

Improved acceptance and formatting of cut and paste material including insertion of gifs, jpeg, and even videosNested comments to the author in a thread and thread of

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Strategy New Media Inc is our new host and IT fix-it company. MEV, our previous host, had ceased supporting WordPress platforms. so a move was mandatory. As of last night, Strategy is migrating AB to a new server, so as some have experienced difficulties in commenting I apologize. I have alerted Strategy to these glitches.

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