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Dan Crawford

Dan Crawford

aka Rdan owns, designs, moderates, and manages Angry Bear since 2007. Dan is the fourth ‘owner’.

Articles by Dan Crawford

Weekly Indicators for January 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha

11 days ago

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for January 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Surprisingly, Omicron has not had any wide impact on the coincident data – at least not yet.

On the other hand, the long leading forecast has become weaker, as interest rates have moved in the wrong direction.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on where the economy is and where it is going, and will reward me a little bit for organizing that information for you.

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First post on Angry Bear 2003

14 days ago

(Dan here…just a ‘for example’ of the econ blogosphere for your curiosity)

February 14, 2003 3:20 am

Income and Consumption by Angry Bear

So here’s the bit of information that lead me to finally decide to put my two cents on the web. Dave Neiwert reports that the 2003 Economic Report of the President contains language referring to plans to eliminate or reduce the income tax and replace it with a consumption (i.e., sales) tax. This is an astounding plan.

A general principle of Economics is that when the government wants the citizenry to do less of something, then the government should levy a tax on that activity. In this case, the ramifications seem twofold: (1) less taxes on income means more working (the principle acting in reverse) and

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Weekly Indicators for December 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha

18 days ago

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for December 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha

The last edition of Weekly Indicators for 2021 is up at Seeking Alpha.

I have been watching restaurant reservations for the first signs of the economic impact of Omicron. Well . . . .

Additionally, interest rates are hitting an important milestone this week, that is changing some of their ratings, and with that the reading of the long leading forecast.

As always, reading the post should bring you up to the moment, and reward me a little bit for bringing the information to you in a cohesive, logical format

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Weekly Indicators for December 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha

25 days ago

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for December 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Surprisingly, so far the Omicron variant has had no deleterious effect on any of the data, and in particular, on restaurant reservations.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the economic moment, and bring me a little late Christmas cash in my stocking.

Also – Programming Note: This week will also be very light on data, with two house price indexes on Tuesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. While I suspect there will be the need for a coronavirus update < sigh >, don’t be surprised if I play hookie one or two days again.

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Weekly Indicators for December 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha

December 20, 2021

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for December 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha

[Brief programming note: this coming week will only see existing home sales on Wednesday, and new home sales plus jobless claims on Thursday. In other words – don’t be surprised if I take a couple of days off. Omicron permitting]

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

While the large majority of the strictly economic data continues positive in all time frames, it can be trumped at a moment’s notice by Omicron.

I expect the comments on this week’s post at that site to be “interesting,” but not in an intellectually challenging way, if you catch my drift and I think you do.

In any event, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual

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The state of the American consumer

December 17, 2021

by New Deal democrat

The state of the American consumer

Yesterday I updated my alternative “consumer nowcast” fundamentals-based model of the economy, which serves as a check on my other models, and posted it over at Seeking Alpha.

Hard to believe that I first wrote up that model over 15 years ago way back when I was a fledgling diarist at Daily Kos. The one surprise has been that, back then, I didn’t think interest rates could decline further in any meaningful way. Silly me!

Anyway, for a review of the economy based on the state of the average American household, go over and take a look. Any my lunch money will thank you

Tags: American Consumer

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Weekly Indicators for December 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha

December 12, 2021

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for December 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

While stock prices made a new record yesterday, the more significant change this week was that Omicron most likely has already put a dent in peoples’ dining plans, as restaurant reservations declined significantly.

Also, the weekly measure of consumer spending continues to be strong, even though real wages have declined in recent months.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and will bring me my lunch money for the coming week.

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Weekly Indicators for November 29 – December 3 at Seeking Alpha

December 5, 2021

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for November 29 – December 3 at Seeking Alpha

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

After a long time of very few if any weekly changes among the indicators, there were three changes this week, and several other indicators that are close to changing as well.

Or, as the title to this week’s post says, there are “changes afoot.”

As usual, not only will clicking over and reading bring you up to the virtual moment as to what those changes are and what they might mean, but it will also reward me a little bit for the efforts I put in to bring you that information in an organized format.

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The Return of FDI

December 2, 2021

By Joseph Joyce

The Return of FDI

Last year’s collapse in foreign direct investment was seen by many as the first stage of a period of retrenchment. Political pressure to “reshore” production, particularly of goods of national importance such as medical equipment, would cause multinational firms to rearrange their global supply chains to minimize foreign exposure. The data released for FDI in the first half of this year shows that in fact, foreign investment has rebounded from last year’s decline. But the largest growth rates were recorded for the upper-income countries, where FDI had fallen precipitously in 2020, and China. FDI also rose in middle-income countries where it had not fallen as sharply in 2020. Low-income countries, on the

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Everybody’s Talkin’ ‘Bout Taxes–especially Wealth Taxes and Mark-to-Market of Capital Gains

November 28, 2021

(Dan here…I missed this piece by AB contributor Linda Beale, January 28, 2020. There are a few more)

by Linda Beale at ataxingmatter (https://ataxingmatter.blogs.com/)

Everybody’s Talkin’ ‘Bout Taxes–especially Wealth Taxes and Mark-to-Market of Capital Gains

Not surprisingly for those of you who are members of the ABA Tax Section, there is a meeting of that group next week in Florida when a thousand tax lawyers (give or take a few) will be talking about everything from basis to wealth taxes; GILTI, BEAT, Dual BEIT, to EITC.  Yours truly will be on a panel of the Tax Policy and Simplification Committee, meeting Friday morning, to discuss how the tax system should respond to the wealth gap.  Joining me on the dais will be Roger Royse

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Weekly Indicators for November 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha

November 28, 2021

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for November 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Despite the roiling of the financial waters (on thin trading, with all of the A-list movers and shakers away from their desks) on Friday, the underlying indicators for the economy in all timeframes remain generally positive.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment about conditions in the economy, and reward me a little bit for putting in the time and effort to bring you that information.

Tags: weekly indicators

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Having a Happy Thanksgiving

November 25, 2021

Thanksgiving finds Bill is in Arizona in a new home. If he is not on site early in the morning, you will know why in the Midwest and East Coast. He reports the ordering of a turkey dinner this year as it was too difficult to move all the people together for a family dinner so soon. Christmas spent together will be a bigger celebration in 2021.

My own family is all together for the first time in a couple years in California. We traveled there a few days ago.

However, Thanksgiving can be had anywhere and at any time whether traveling or at home. Akin to Thanksgiving are such things as inviting two others to dine with you in a crowded airport restaurant. Or inviting a new neighbor to your home for Thanksgiving demonstrating the spirit of it.

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Weekly Indicators for November 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

November 21, 2021

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for November 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

From time to time here, I put up a post including “you’re reading the right blog” in the title.  This week was similar at Seeking Alpha. In the past week or so, there have been a number of articles in the mainstream financial media about how the shipping bottleneck is at least beginning to ease, and gas and oil prices have begun to decline.

But that is something I started to write about in my “Weekly Indicators” columns almost in real time beginning 5 weeks ago.

This is exactly the kind of thing tracking high frequency indicators is designed to accomplish; a heads-up alert about a change in trend almost as

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