– by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for May 31 – June 4 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

On the one hand, it’s amazing just how positive the indicators are almost across the board – including long term Treasuries getting relaxed about the inflation scare.

On the other hand, the surge in commodity prices looks like it’s about to bite corporate profits in the rear quadrant.

Also, I’ve tried out a new summary spreadsheet format which should make the concluding information easier to read.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy and the forecast. And it will reward me with my lunch money for next week.

Tags: open thread

By Joseph Joyce

International Factor Income in 2020

The sharp contraction in economic activity in the first half of 2020 due to the COVID pandemic was followed by a slow and uneven recovery in the second half of the year. The decline slowed global trade and capital flows, although not as much as initially expected. The economc slowdown also lowered investment income and remittances, the two main forms of international factor income payments. (There is also rent received on property.) Will these also recover as economic growth resumes?

Net investment income appears in the current account of the balance of payments as part of net primary income. For most countries FDI income is the largest component of investment income, followed by

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for May 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The theme of a supply-constrained economic Boom continues, with the addition this past week of the national average of gas prices going over $3 a gallon for the first time since 2014, probably in part to the Colonial Pipeline snafu.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you right up to date on the state of the economy, and bring me a little pocket change for gas money.

Big Pharma says they need to charge astronomical prices to pay for research and development. Yet, the amount they spend on manipulating the market to enrich shareholders completely eclipses what’s spent on R&D. Today, I confronted a CEO about the industry’s lies, with visuals ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/c3jSLr0yVd— Rep. Katie Porter (@RepKatiePorter) May 18, 2021
Tags: big pharma, drug prices

Weekly Indicators for May 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big news in this past week, even though it has been expected for several months, was on the inflation front. That doesn’t affect the nowcast, and hasn’t affected the short term forecast yet. The long term forecast continues to be buffetted by increased interest rates.

In my commentary this week, I make reference to supply constraints. I bring this up here because I read a tweet today by someone whose political analysis I respect, showing a graph of the spike in lumber prices, and stating that lumber was “in a bubble.”

No it’s not. The defining feature of a bubble is speculation on the continuing increase in

“It Took the Democrats Half a Century to Rediscover Trickle-Up Economics,” The Soap Box, Bruce Barlett

Republicans still cling to trickle-down delusions of the wealthy and big business delivering economic progress to the rest of the nation, while Joe Biden revives a philosophy of growth Democrats have not embraced since LBJ . . . Stimulating economic growth and prosperity from the bottom up.

Bruce Bartlett takes the reader on a journey to the times of FDR and the introduction of the concept of trickle-up economics citing a bit of  William Foster and Waddill Catchings 1928 book, The Road to Plenty (“[B]oth corporations and individuals must save), Will Rogers (money was all appropriated for the top) and William Jennings Bryan famous “Cross of

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for May 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

YoY comparisons remain ridiculous, so seasonally adjusted data, plus comparisons with 2019 where available are more informative.

That being said, all of the coincident and short leading indicators point towards continued strong expansion. The longer leading forecast is much murkier, partly because of some sharp movements in interest rates, and partly because the pandemic, the provision of enhanced unemployment benefits, and filling in jobs lost during the pandemic are in a race with one another.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to what is happening in the economy, and

by New Deal democrat

The long leading indicator of credit conditions has just been updated by the Fed

The easing or tightening of credit conditions has a good track record as a long leading indicator, giving us information about whether the economy will be expanding or contracting in 12+ months.

The Fed just updated its Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1, which covers both the easing or tightening of credit supply on the one hand, and demand for credit on the other. I have a report on this over at Seeking Alpha, discussing its implications for the next year.

As usual, clicking over and reading brings you valuable new information, and rewards me just a little bit for my efforts.

Tags: open thread

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for April 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Right now a lot of YoY readings are not very helpful, because the comparisons are against the worst of the pandemic. So I have been adding some comparisons with 2019 as well. The sum total of the outcome is that, while a (perhaps short lived) economic Boom is underway, there are no persuasive signs of overheating at this point.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and reward me with a penny or two for my efforts in putting together the information.

By Joseph Joyce

The Next “Lost Decade”

The 1980s were a “lost decade” of economic growth for those developing countries in Latin America that were enveloped in a debt crisis. Many now fear that we are on the verge of another debt crisis in the wake of borrowing by governments to support their economies during the pandemic. A concerted response will be needed to avoid it.

Countries such as Mexico and Brazil had borrowed during the 1970s to finance oil bills that had skyrocketed after OPEC had raised petroleum prices. International banks were happy to recycle the dollars that the oil-exporters had placed on deposit with them. The crisis came when the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker raised interest rates, and the U.S. experienced back-to-back

Tags: open thread

-by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for April 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

I feel like a broken record . . . With pedal-to-the-metal fiscal and monetary stimulus, plus the opening up of pent-up demand with a large pool of vaccinated people, the economy is on fire, and is going to remain so for some time to come.

The question is, as we look out into next year, how much of an impact are higher interest rates and at least transitory higher inflation going to have?

Anyway, as usual clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment with what the data in all time-frames is showing, and reward me with a penny or two for lunch money for the effort I put in.

Tags: open thread

Tags: open thread

By Steve Roth (originally published at Evonomics)t https://evonomics.com/how-redistribution-makes-america-richer/

You hear a lot about bottom-up and middle-out economics these days, as antidotes to a half-century of “trickle-down” theorizing and rhetoric. You’re even hearing it, prominently, from Joe Biden:

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They’re compelling ideas: put more wealth and income in the hands of millions, or hundreds of millions, and you’ll see more economic activity, more prosperity, and more widespread prosperity. To its proponents, it seems deeply intuitive or even obvious, a formula for The American Dream.

But curiously, you don’t find much nuts and bolts economic theory supporting that view of how economies work. There’s been lots of

– by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for April 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big call I made last year is that conditions were setting up for a Boom this year, once the pandemic started to be overcome. Well, almost half of all Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine, and all the signs are that the Boom is well and truly upon us.

So the nowcast and short term forecast is all about chronicling the Boom, while the long term forecast is about what happens as the Boom begins to fade.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment about the economy, while rewarding me just a little bit for my efforts.

Tags: open thread

Coronavirus dashboard for April 12: more good news, more bad news

The good news is, vaccinations work.Vaccine effect in the UK:

By age group:

Vaccine effect in France (in the face of an increasing case count):

Vaccine effect even in Chile:

While confirmed cases have gone up by 100% in Chile, deaths have “only” gone up by 50%. Even employing a 4-week lag, 4 weeks ago cases had gone up 50%, while deaths are up 33% from 4 weeks ago:

Vaccine effect in the US:

Now, the bad news.A 4th wave has clearly begun in the US, as confirmed cases are up over 30%, from 53,300 3 weeks ago to just over 70,000. Deaths have plateaued:One week ago I said that Michigan would be the acid test for what happened with deaths