Tuesday , October 27 2020
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Dan Crawford

Dan Crawford

aka Rdan owns, designs, moderates, and manages Angry Bear since 2007. Dan is the fourth ‘owner’.

Articles by Dan Crawford

September housing construction: another very positive month

5 days ago

By New Deal democrat
September housing construction: another very positive month

Yesterday September housing permits and starts were reported. Permits made yet another 10+ year high. This bodes very well for the economy in 2021, if the pandemic can be contained.
Sorry about the delay. Seeking Alpha didn’t get around to publishing it until this morning. Here’s the link.

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The Guardians of the Financial Galaxy

7 days ago

By Joseph Joyce
The Guardians of the Financial Galaxy

The rapid expansion of the pandemic and the ensuing economic and financial collapses brought about responses by policymakers, including actions undertaken on an international basis. The Federal Reserve acted together with other central banks to ensure that an adequate supply of dollars was available to support dollar-based financing outside the U.S. Similarly, the IMF moved rapidly to provide financial support to its members. These national and international institutions constitute a “two tier” system in international finance that occupies the role of lender of last resort.
International cooperation has occurred before, and Michael Bordo of Rutgers University gives an account of these efforts in a new

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Weekly Indicators for October 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha

8 days ago

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for October 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha
 My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

What was most noteworthy about the past week is the confirmation that consumer spending, so far, has continued to hold up even as emergency Congressional assistance has been terminated for a month and a half.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the moment on all of the important economic data, and will reward me with a penny or two in my pocket for putting the information together for you.

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Weekly Indicators for October 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha

15 days ago

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for October 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Because the pandemic so quickly and completely put the economy in a coma back in April, and the economy remains at severely depressed levels by most metrics compared with a year ago, in June I started to compared current levels with the worst pandemic readings.  This week I went further, and calculated the best readings since the pandemic began for most indicators, and am tracking those as well.
The results as of now confirm that the economy has *slowly* continued to improve into the autumn compared with summer.
As usual, clicking over and reading will give you a comprehensive look at where the economy is right up until this week,

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Constitutional Nit Picking

21 days ago

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts)
by Robert Waldmann
Friday, October 02, 2020
Constitutional Nit Picking

I object to this sentence in this article by Paul Kane in the Washington Post “In such a scenario, deciding the presidency falls to the House of Representatives, but in a rare twist mandated by the 12th Amendment after the contested 1800 election, each state’s delegation counts as one vote. “

In fact, we can blame the delegates at the Constitutional Convention (as well as the 7th Congress) for that particular offense against Democracy. Back in 1800, The Constitution Article II Section 1 included “But in ch00sing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote;” The one state one

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Weekly Indicators for September 28 – October 2 at Seeking Alpha

23 days ago

by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 28 – October 2 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Almost all of the indicators across all time frames are well off their worst levels. The question now is becoming whether or not they will stall out or reverse.
As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and rewards me just a little bit for my efforts.

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Meanwhile, climate change is heating up nights faster than days

26 days ago

Climate change is heating up nights faster than days in many parts of the world, findings that could have “profound consequences” for wildlife and their capacity to adapt to the climate emergency, researchers say.

The climate crisis is heating up nights faster than days in many parts of the world, according to the first worldwide assessment of how global heating is differently affecting days and nights.
The findings have “profound consequences” for wildlife and their ability to adapt to the climate emergency, the researchers said, and for the ability of people to cool off at night during dangerous heatwaves.
The scientists compared the rises in daytime and night-time temperatures over the 35 years up to 2017. Global heating is increasing both, but they

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The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: not a good week for Biden

27 days ago

The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: not a good week for Biden

Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are snapshots of the present; there is no guarantee they will be identical or nearly identical in early November.
Let’s begin with Trump’s approval. Disapproval remains absolutely steady at 52.7% for the third week in a row, while approval improved very slightly (by +0.3%), and remains right in its normal range for the past 3 1/2 years:

There is no indication that either Trump’s “law and order” pitch, or the replacement of the late

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Weekly Indicators for September 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha

28 days ago

– by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
While the underlying economic data still looks positive, the possibility for disruption based on a full-blown Constitutional Crisis following the election can no longer be overlooked.
As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you right up to the moment about the economy, and reward me a little bit for the work I do putting this together.

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Review: Bad Blood

September 25, 2020

By David Zetland (originally published at One-handed economist)
Review: Bad Blood
I’d heard about this book — the story of the rise and fall of Elizabeth Homes and her company Theranos — long ago, but I only decided to read it when preparing readings for my course, The World of Entrepreneurs. I wanted to understand her case, as an example of the dark side of Silicon Valley —  not the side of “fake it until you make it” —  but the side of “lie to everyone, about everything, if that gives you an advantage.”
Aside: I worked in three start-ups in Silicon Valley, of which two were dominated by frauds of the “funding secured” and “vaporware” models, respectively, so I have a real interest in similar stories. That said, I am pretty sure that at least 80% of

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The Return of Global Imbalances?

September 24, 2020

By Joseph Joyce
The Return of Global Imbalances?
The global economic contraction following the pandemic has led to a massive fiscal response. Governments have acknowledged the need to increase spending in order to offset the declines in consumption and investment. The decreases in public savings can lead to rising current account deficits that offset the capital inflows needed to cover the gap between savings and investment. But will these measures generate a return to the global imbalances that preceded the global financial crisis?
The IMF’s External Sector Report for 2020, subtitled Global Imbalances and the COVID-19 Crisis, appeared in August (see a summary here). The analysis was based on data from 2019 when the global current account imbalance (the

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Lifted from comments (Fred C. Dobbs)

September 21, 2020

The most complicated election in modern history is coming
— soon. Are we prepared?
via @BostonGlobe – September 20
A TEST FOR DEMOCRACY
Experts worry about a nightmare election during a pandemic marred by disenfranchisement and chaos, followed by an acrimonious legal and political dispute over the results that would test the nation’s democratic resolve. …
(A lengthy article, in six parts.)
Chapter 1 – A history of disenfranchisement
Chapter 2 – Fear and mistrust
Chapter 3 – Running elections amid COVID-19
Chapter 4 – Legal battles
Chapter 5 – Disinformation and cybersecurity
Chapter 6 – Mail-in voting

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August housing permits and starts bode well for 2021 economy

September 20, 2020

By New Deal democrat
August housing permits and starts bode well for 2021 economy
 As I mentioned yesterday, August housing starts and permits were reported. Since they are important long leading indicators, I promised an update.

And here it is, up at Seeking Alpha.
As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and helps reward me with a penny or two for my efforts.

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Colorado weather

September 10, 2020

CBSNews  Denver officially broke a record with 101 degrees on Saturday7 (Sept. 5) tied a record with 97 degrees on Sunday and came within two degrees of the record with 93 degrees on Sunday. Overall it was one of the hottest Labor Day weekends on record in Colorado.
DENVER (KDVR) —  We set two record lows in Denver.  The first occurred Tuesday night (Sept. 8) at 31 degrees.  This ties 1962 for the earliest first freeze on record.  The second record low occurred Wednesday morning at 31 degrees.

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San Francisco skies

September 10, 2020

A friend sends a picture of the sky at 9:30 AM in San Francisco CA.  The color matches other pictures I have seen.
Picture 1

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Trumpian by Ken Melvin

September 8, 2020

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Let’s take a look at the ‘Greatest’ Trump Economy. The first graph shows the BLS Civilian Unemployment rate from 2000 t0 2020. Use the link for a better look Civilian unemployment rate If you look really close, no you have to look a little closer yet, you can see the Trump effect. The second graph […]

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