by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for September 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Despite the fact that Delta has been almost as bad as last winter’s wave of infections, which was the worst to date, and has been almost as bad in terms of deaths as the first wave that hit the NYC area hard, it has had almost no effect on the economy, and in particular consumer behavior.

In the longer term, relatively low unemployment and higher inflation may spur the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later, but this has not dragged down the long leading indicators too much at this point.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you nearly up to the moment as to the economic situation, and

Tags: open thread

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for September 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big surprise of the past several months has been how little effect the Delta wave has had on the data, and in particular consumer data. 

As usual, clicking over and reading hopefully is rewarding to you, and a tiny bit rewarding to me as well.

Over this year, our readership has grown by >28% as measured by Google Analytics which uses a thirty-day rolling average to reflect solid trends in readership. The Bear, better known as Angry Bear in the blogosphere, is well past the initial milestone of consistency and maintenance of readership and the associated increases.

No small achievement.

An array of thank yous to newer Angry Bear contributors Eric Kramer, Ken Melvin, Michael Smith; colleagues Barkley Rosser, Peter Dorman, Sandwichman, and pgl (based at Econospeak); the prolific New Deal democrat (based at Bonddad blog); long time contributors Robert Waldman, Ken Houghton, Dale Coberly, and other commenters/ bloggers like RJS, Joseph Joyce, etc.

Especial credit to run75441 (Bill H.)

By Joseph Joyce

The Global Impact of the Fed’s Pivot on Asset Purchases

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced last month that the Fed would slow its purchases of bonds, most likely by the end of this year. The timing of the cutback will depend on several factors related to the economy, and last week’s disappointing employment report if repeated could push back the date. The financial markets will now begin anticipating the impact of the reduction in the Fed’s asset holdings.

The origins of the increase in the Fed’s holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securites can be traced back to the global financial crisis. The Fed’s assets grew from $870 billion in August 2007 to $2 trillion in early 2009. When the Fed introduced

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for August 30 – September 3 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Even the indicators which should be most sensitive to rhe raging of the Delta variant show no significant deterioration. A few indicators actually improved.

As usual, clicking over and reading should reward you with knowledge and reward me a little bit for my efforts.

Tags: weekly indicators

By Dale Coberly

Condorcet and Malthusian essay

relevant to Social Security

and the problem of too much kindness

[note, important sentences in the following are quoted from another author because it’s easier for me to write that way.  Credit will be given at the end of the article.]

Goetzman: “In 1794 as the Reign of Terror raged the Marquis de Condorcet penned one of the most optimistic tracts of the eighteenth century.  He wrote hurriedly and in hiding…evading an arrest warrant that would surely mean his death.  Condorcet was a brilliant mathematician—a major contributor to the development of calculus—…He was one of the most enlightened of Enlightenment figures: an abolitionist, a promoter of women’s rights, an advocate of democracy,

By Dale Coberly (Dale has been posting on AB on Social Security for over 12 years…some of his work and Bruce Webb’s can be found under our new category Social Security)

Social Security Trustees Report OutCRFB Lies About It

When is a not-a-lie really a lie?

When the liar gives you a part of “true information” and leaves out “the whole truth” in order to lead you to a false conclusion.  Or worse, to lead you to do something that hurts you.

Today Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, issued a statement in which she said:“Acting today, we could fix Social Security with a 27 percent tax increase or 21 percent benefit reduction.”

What makes this a lie, though technically “true,” is that MacGuineas

By Steve Roth ( Steve Roth is a contributor to Angry Bear and is currently publisher of Evonomics. Originally published at Evonomics)

April 14, 2021

You hear a lot about bottom-up and middle-out economics these days, as antidotes to a half-century of “trickle-down” theorizing and rhetoric. You’re even hearing it, prominently, from Joe Biden.

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They’re compelling ideas: put more wealth and income in the hands of millions, or hundreds of millions, and you’ll see more economic activity, more prosperity, and more widespread prosperity. To its proponents, it seems deeply intuitive or even obvious, a formula for The American Dream.

But curiously, you don’t find much nuts and bolts of economic theory supporting that view of

Evonomic’s contributor Jag Bhalla offers his narrative of how the vaccine choices played out in the US and looks to continue along the same lines with the booster shots for Covid 19 in Vaccine Greed: Capitalism Without Competition Isn’t Capitalism, It’s Exploitation.

DID GREED JUST save the day? That’s what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed recently. “The reason we have the vaccine success,” he said in a private call to Conservative members of Parliament, “is because of capitalism, because of greed.”
Despite later backpedaling, Johnson’s remark reflects a widely influential but wildly incoherent view of innovation: that greed — the unfettered pursuit of profit above all else — is a necessary driver of technological progress. Call it the

By Joseph Joyce (Professor of Economics at Wellesley College, where he holds the M. Margaret Ball Chair of International Relations. He served as the first Faculty Director of the Madeleine Korbel Albright Institute for Global Affairs.)

China’s Outward FDI

Chinese firms that want to list their stock in U.S. equity markets face a series of hurdles. The Securities and Exchange Commission is implementing a new rule that requires the firms to provide information regarding their ties to the Chinese government, while the Biden administration is banning Americans from investing in 59 Chinese firms. Moreover, Chinese authorities have their own concerns about the foreign listing of Chinese firms. Chinese multinationals also face impediments to their

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for August 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

For the first time, there are some significant if still minor impacts on the economy showing up due to the Delta wave.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economy, and help me out a little bit with my lunch money.

By New Deal democrat

Lending supply and demand both increased in Q2

The June JOLTS report will be posted at 10 am eastern time (Dan here…Aug. 9)

While we are waiting for that, here is a link to my update on the Senior Loan Officer Survey, which is a long leading indicator, which was posted at Seeking Alpha.

Easier lending standards, and increased demand for loans, is a strong positive for the economy going out 12 months.As usual, clicking over and reading will reward me a little bit for my efforts.

Economist Farmer Michael Smith continues his take on Agricultural Economics. The Golden Seed . . . “Drought Resistance by Engineering Plant Tissue-Specific Responses”

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I’ll cut to the chase, for centuries we have been searching for the golden goose to lay the golden egg. This search for perfection in an imperfect world leads our collective minds to continue to seek out this perfection, or some amalgamation or imperfect things that collectively can be considered close to perfection.

Climate change is now forcing us to innovate at a rapid pace because our semi-perfect is now wholly imperfect.

We planted corn this year, let it go to silk and spent yesterday pulling the ears from the stalk and measuring our yield. We spring planted

A

By David Zetland

Review: Shop Class as Soulcraft

I can’t remember who recommended this 2009 book (subtitle an inquiry into the value of work) by Matthew B. Crawford, but I have been recommending to many people — whether they have rough or soft hands.

The hook: Crawford got a PhD in political philosophy (U Chicago). After getting a job at a think tank, he decided that work was neither tangible nor useful. So he bought a motorcycle repair shop.

So this book is about two things: debunking the myth that manual labor doesn’t require brains, skill & judgement, and focussing readers on the existential question of “why am I doing this?”

It came to me at an opportune time, as I have been putting more of my time into hobbies like woodworking,

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for August 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Although the Delta wave is raging, nothing is impacting behavior. Neither producers nor consumers appear to have altered their behavior in any significant way at all because of the Delta.

As usual, clicking through and reading will bring you right up to date on the economy, and bring me a little pocket change for my efforts.

Tags: open thread

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for July 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Ironically, as the bond market smells weakness ahead, driving long term rates down, it also sets up a rebound from that weakness further out. In the meantime, Q2 corporate profits are through the roof.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the virtual moment, and bring me some change for a libation or two.