Tags: open thread

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a dire warning about what is to come for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its latest ensemble projections.

The agency believes that as many as 92,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 in the next three weeks despite the rollout of the vaccine. This represents a 25% increase in total COVID-related deaths, which have now topped over 384,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The CDC’s forecast also suggests that total COVID deaths will reach up to 477,000 by Feb. 6.

By Joseph Joyce

FDI and the Pandemic

The fluctuations in portfolio capital flows to emerging markets over the past year have been well documented. But foreign direct investment (FDI) has also plunged in those countries as well as in the advanced economies. Moreover, FDI faces more long-term challenges than other forms of capital flows.

In October the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported FDI data for the first half of the year. The OECD found that global FDI flows fell by half in the first six months as compared to the second half of 2019. Inflows to the OECD area countries fell by 74%, driven by lower flows to the U.S. and reverse flows from Switzerland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Outflows fell by

Having just had an operation at Mass General earlier this week, I was pleased to hear that the nurses I met had their first vaccination. But then I checked the Boston Globe and Med Page Today on our local progress in relation to my own turn. Worth a discussion and feedback on your own locality.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/marty-makary/90649

Quote:

This is a manufactured problem. The CDC, states, and hospitals should have distinguished frontline COVID-19 workers from everyone who has a job connected to healthcare. As University of Iowa immunologist and CDC committee member Stanley Perlman, MD, PhD, told the New York Times, the CDC never intended to include workers who don’t interact with patients, like administrators and graduate

Tags: open thread

by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for December 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

While there have been some signs of softening in a few of the high profile metrics, overall the economy continues to remain surprisingly resilient.

As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment, and put a little coin jingle in my pocket.

(Dan here…I lifted reader Michael Smith piece on water use in open thread Dec. 22. The topic is well worth writing about…AB used to discuss this issue regularly starting in 2008 during the severe drought in the US when the southeast was contemplating court action amongst themselves to ensure their own supplies.. Search “water” in AB for a sample)

Michael Smith writes:

I should probably write a longer piece on this but I’ll try to summarize the best I can.

Had lunch with a prominent client scientist in my region that frankly scared the crap out of me. The hydrologic cycle is being seriously disrupted.

Here is what we know:

The Powell 100th meridian has moved east, by a lot.

Approximately 85% of our produce comes from drought

Tags: open thread

by New Deal democrat 

Weekly Indicators for December 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Even with deterioration in a few noteworthy items like new jobless claims, the overall tenor of both the forecast and the nowcast remains positive.

As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you and remunerative for me to the tune of a penny or two in my pocket.

By Joseph Joyce

Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets amid the Pandemic

Among the most notable economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the turnaround in capital flows to emerging markets. A sudden reversal in portfolio flows of over $100 billion to these countries in March has been offset by a surge of capital this fall. But many of these countries have accumulated debt burdens that will affect their ability to recover from the pandemic.

The IMF examined portfolio flows to these economies in last April’s issue of the Global Financial Stability Report (see also here). The report showed that prior to the pandemic, bond portfolio inflows had been larger than equity portfolio flows, with cumulative flows since 2005 of

By Joseph Joyce

Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets amid the Pandemic

Among the most notable economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the turnaround in capital flows to emerging markets. A sudden reversal in portfolio flows of over $100 billion to these countries in March has been offset by a surge of capital this fall. But many of these countries have accumulated debt burdens that will affect their ability to recover from the pandemic.

The IMF examined portfolio flows to these economies in last April’s issue of the Global Financial Stability Report (see also here). The report showed that prior to the pandemic, bond portfolio inflows had been larger than equity portfolio flows, with cumulative flows since 2005 of

Tags: open thread

By New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for November 30 – December 4 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

There is more evidence of weakening of the coincident data, probably as the result of the completely out of control pandemic. Some of that is probably due to new restrictions, some to winter weather causing people to curtail some activities, and some (probably most of all) to people becoming much more cautious about any activity that causes them to come into contract with others. 

As usual, clicking over and reading rewards me just a little bit for my efforts.

Tags: Seeking Alpha

By New Deal democrat
First look at the 2021 economy: housing

As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out.
So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has been a powerful positive omen for the economy going into 2021.
Yesterday residential construction spending for October was reported and continued that string of very positive signs. The below graph compares inflation-adjusted residential construction spending with single-family housing permits since the construction series began in 2002:

These are the two least volatile of all of the housing metrics. Since sales have to be made first and permits obtained, before construction

by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for November 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha

A little later than usual, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
While there has been no big deterioration, there are further slight signs that the out of control pandemic is taking a toll on the recovery that has been underway for the past 6 months.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me a little bit for my efforts.

"I guarantee you…" pic.twitter.com/HRjKjtrziV
— Bad COVID-19 Takes (@BadCOVID19Takes) November 23, 2020

(Dan here,,,I think worth looking at in American Affairs)
New Fault Lines in a Post-Globalized World
By Marshall Auerback and Jan Ritch-Frel

November 20, 2020The economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic has upended the global economic system and, just as importantly, cast out the neoliberal orthodoxy that dominated the industrialized world for the past forty years. But Covid-19 has only accelerated a process that was already well underway, impacting trade negotiations between China, the United States, and the European Union and spreading throughout the world’s largest economies. Although many defenders of the old order lament this trend, it is as significant a shift as the dawn of the era of global trade that began with the birth of the World Trade

The Democrats’ problem in the Senate, explained

One of the memes that I have read quite a few times in the past week is that the Democrats have won 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections and that the institutions of electoral government discriminate against them.

A review of the actual results of the last 8 elections does not quite support that assertion. In only 4 of those 8 elections has either party mustered a majority of voters; in the other 4 the victor won by a plurality. This to my mind betrays a fundamental disaffection (relatively speaking) for the choices given the electorate.

Here are the raw numbers:

Year      Dem.    GOP
1992.    43.0%.  37.4%
1996.    49.2%.  40.7%
2000.    48.4%.  47.9%
2004.    48.3%.  50.7%
2008.    52.9%.  45.7%

Via Truthout comes this thought:
In 2016, the big takeaway was that 53 percent of white women voters cast their ballots in favor of Donald Trump, according to exit polls, helping cement his victory. But, in 2020, white women voters surpassed their 2016 levels of support as, according to exit polls, 55 percent of white women turned out to vote for the president…
Via the New York Times exit poll reporting reflects this impression from the Edison Research polling.

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for November 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
With Joe Biden assuming the Presidency on January 20, and an announcement of a successful vaccine by Pfizer that should be available by next spring or summer, the short and long leading indicators should once again be giving their usual signals for next year. And we have a pretty good idea of what that means…
As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you virtually up to the moment about the economy, and also reward me a little bit for my efforts.

By Joseph Joyce
2020 “Globie”: The Carry Trade

It is time to announce the recipient of this year’s “Globie”, i.e., the Globalization Book of the Year. The award gives me a chance to draw attention to a book that is particularly insightful about some aspect of globalization. This year’s winner is The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis by Tim Lee, Jamie Lee and Kevin Coldiron. The prize lacks any monetary reward, but no doubt the distinction of having won has value in itself. Previous winners are listed at the bottom.
The classic carry trade involves borrowing and investing in different currencies. For many years the Japanese yen served as the source of

Dan here: I received this note from Spencer’s son Matt late afternoon yesterday. Thank you Matt for the note. I knew Spencer as an economist who had a fact-based analysis of industry trends and a direct and clear way of demonstrating and describing a point to the discussion for over a decade. 2011 provides an example. Dean Baker noticed at times. I cannot find Paul Krugman’s mention but here is part of the year 2013.
Matt Spencer sent this note about his dad:
I regret to inform you that Spencer England passed away at 4:30 this morning Nov 8, 2020, due to health related issues.
He was a former Marine, had a love for economics from a very young age, and spent many years with the Central Intelligence Agency dissecting world economies after he served. He then

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for November 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
With the almost certain election of Joe Biden to the Presidency, we can expect a much more organized and effective Federal response to the pandemic beginning on January 20. If the pandemic is brought under control by spring sometime (and maybe a vaccine becomes available), the ordinary function of the leading economic indicators will be resumed – which means they start to have extra importance right about now.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment in terms of what those indicators forecast, and reward me a little bit for giving you that information.
P.S.: Because I am in much better frame of