[unable to retrieve full-text content]by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The stars are aligning for the recovery from the present slowdown in the longer term. But in the meantime, the present and short term data is still soft. As usual, clicking over and […]

Interesting stuff from the One Handed Economist
“The road to dictatorship is depressingly predictable. Once power is stolen, the problem is to keep it. Anyone who might develop a separate power base must be struck down. Eradicate rivals, rule through force and fear. Trust no one, particularly family, friends and the army. Keep everyone on their toes with random executions, unpredictable policy changes and imaginative public tortures. So far, so historic. It could be a Shakespeare play. What distinguishes modern tyranny, Dikötter argues, is the cult of personality. Total control of the information space keeps the modern dictator in power.” Via New Statesman.

Interesting stuff from the One Handed Economist
From Intellectual to influencer: “In the case of the public intellectual, the institution was the academy and the role was thinking. In the case of the public influencer, the institution is the corporation and the role is marketing. The shift makes sense. Marketing, after all, has displaced thinking as our primary culture-shaping activity, the source of what we perceive ourselves to be.”
How true does this seem?

By Joseph Joyce
Does France Have an “Exorbitant Privilege”?

The U.S. has long been accused of using the international role of the dollar to exercise an “exorbitant privilege.” The term, first used by French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, refers to the ability of the U.S. to finance its current account deficits and acquire foreign assets by issuing dollars as a reserve currency. While flexible exchange rates have lowered the need for reserve currencies, the use of the dollar in international trade and finance ensures that there is a continuing need for dollar-denominated assets. The status of the dollar contributes to the surplus in U.S. international investment income despite its negative net international investment position (NIIP). But

Opinion _ The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – The New York Times

Watch how radically taxes on the wealthy have fallen over the past 70 years:
(Full column: https://t.co/XP0a4Iljti) pic.twitter.com/dGxmOjQ1b5
— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) October 7, 2019

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
If you’re wondering why it’s so late, it’s because SA pretty much shut down between Friday afternoon and this morning.
Anyway, recession risks are rapidly receding, at least through the 4th Quarter.  As usual, clicking over and reading puts a little jingle in my pocket, as well as brining you up to the moment on the economy.

By New Deal democrat
Tame inflation —-> “soft landing”?
I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha.
So long as inflation remains tame, the Fed has scope to bring about a “soft landing” to the slowdown, without there necessarily being a recession (so long as the Toddler in the White House doesn’t tip over the whole apple cart).
As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket.

(Dan here…op-ed lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts, written before coffee on a Sunday morning and feeling older I bet.  Thinking of older, my first computer was a Commodore 128, which isn’t even a minimum RAM amount on my Kindle much less my phone.  Still, I like my two year old basic laptop and a stripped down Windows 10 for personal use.  My wife has an Apple product.  I control my e-mail by being a curmudgeon, which I find much more efficient than any filters I have used. There are disadvantages to this approach.)
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I am typing on my mom’s computer. She introduced me to personal computers (some time ago). She was fairly fluent in DOS (explanatory. not for kids these days — never mind you wouldn’t believe what people used to put up

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
For all of the discussion about various iterations of the treasury bond yield curve, it is little noted that right now it is sending a different message than virtually every other long leading indicator for the economy.
As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment on the economy, and bring me a penny or two for my efforts.

David Zetland writes in his news letter for The one-handed economist:
“What if we stopped pretending the climate apocalypse can be stopped?”  lines up almost exactly with what I’ve been thinking in recent years, i.e., that we’re not making any serious dent in GHG emissions and that it’s better to focus on local community and resiliency. One ironic manifestation of this thinking is that property values in Amsterdam (a city in a region that will be underwater in 50-500 years — the timing will be difficult) may rise rather than fall, as people crowd into a place that’s well run relative to other places that are physically safer but institutionally dysfunctional. How will your future play out?

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha
I realized that I neglected to post a link to this Saturday’s Weekly Indicators post, which was up at Seeking Alpha.  So here it is.
The theme over the past few months has been that, despite worsening conditions in manufacturing, and almost singular forecaster attention to the yield curve, many of the short and long term indicators have been improving, or are starting to improve.
As always, clicking over and reading helps reward me a little bit for the efforts I put in.

Dean Baker considers whether Trump’s group of supporters would be able to manipulate the bureacracies of the federal government to alter the economic outlook of the nation in a more expansive way than Larry Kudlow and others, but the data itself ( if that is even needed?)  He says not likely, but how creative would one need to be?
Dean Baker wonders out loud…
Would Trump Try to Manipulate Economic Data Before the Election?
I talked to a reporter last week who wanted to know if Donald Trump could manipulate economic data for political advantage. For example, could Trump make the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show a lower rate of unemployment or the Bureau of Economic Analysis show a higher rate of GDP growth, just before the election next fall?
…First,

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts)
by Robert Waldmann
Has 21st century conservatism contributed anything useful at all ?

This is a question I haven’t asked myself. I have long looked for reasonable and reasonably honest conservatives. It is frustrating, because I have found many, but few are still conservative. I don’t want to get distracted from my distraction; but there is a pattern of me finding a conservative whom I consider reasonable, then that guy breaks with the conservative movement within a year.The new topic is conservative ideas. The question is, is there any conservative thought which is worth consideration, which they hadn’t already written and which not been said by 1900. I suppose this might be considered an unfair

By New Deal democrat
An update on forecasts

I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, describing the order in which data has tended to deteriorate before consumer-led recessions. A few conditions have been met; most others have not.
I have previously written that if a recession is in the works over the next few quarters, it is more likely to be a producer-led recession, a la 2001. In that regard, a few weeks ago I said that Q2 corporate profits would be a crucial report.
Well, they were reported a couple of weeks ago. I hadn’t linked to that article before, but that too was posted at Seeking Alpha.
The bottom line is that both the nowcast and the long-term 12+ month forecast are reasonably clear. The short term, 3 – 9 month forecast, is a lot dicier, and

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts)
by Robert Waldmann
I get Ruthless With David Leonard

David Leonard picks cherries in a generally good op-ed. I agree entirely with his general conclusion that Democrats should run a populist campaign (no triangulation — he should have noted that Clinton ran on raising taxes on the rich and cutting taxes on the middle class in 1992 — he was a populist before he was a triangulator). He also says don’t talk about decriminalizing border crossing or eliminating private health insurance. I agree entirely. He relies on a Pew poll on issues. It is an interesting poll by a good pollster.
However, I think there should be a rule that any commentary on polls should consider all available still relevant polls. The

(Dan here….some sharp humor for Sunday)

I made something in honor of #sharpiegate. Enjoy. pic.twitter.com/vTm6KPaFAt
— Sam Spiegel 🆘 (@UNSEATpac) September 5, 2019

By New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for September 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
The nowcast and the long term forecast have been pretty stable, but the short term forecast has been volatile recently – and the monthly series (slightly negative) vs. the weekly data (more positive) are not in sync.
This is likely because there is much more monthly data (usually from the government) than weekly data (more often from private sources) about manufacturing.

By Joseph Joyce
Is Inflation a Global Phenomenon?

The persistence of inflation at relatively low rates despite years of monetary stimulus has led to wide-ranging investigations into its determinants. Traditionally the rate of inflation has been linked via a Phillips curve relationship to domestic factors, such as slack in the labor market. But is there also a global element?
Maurice Obstfeld, who has returned to UC-Berkeley from his post as chief economist at the International Monetary Field, examines some of the mechanisms by which global factors could affect U.S. inflation in a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, “Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy.” He reviews the evidence on the Phillips curve, and reports that there is

Figure 1
Via mashable:
Alaska’s exceptional summer continues.
The most rapidly changing state in the U.S. has no sea ice within some 150 miles of its shores, according to high-resolution sea ice analysis from the National Weather Service. The big picture is clear: After an Arctic summer with well above-average temperatures, warmer seas, and a historic July heat wave, sea ice has vanished in Alaskan waters.
“Alaska waters are ice free,” said Rick Thoman, a climate specialist at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.
“This is definitely an extreme year — even by more recent standards in a changed Arctic,” noted Walt Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
In the continually warming Arctic, sea ice has