by Let’s face it: France will not emerge from its current political crisis by inventing a new central coalition. The idea that the country should be governed by bringing together all the so-called « reasonable » parties, from the center-left to the center-right, from the Parti Socialiste (PS) to Les Républicains (LR), excluding the « extremes » – La France Insoumise (LFI) on the left and the Rassemblement National (RN) on the right – is a dangerous illusion, which will only lead to further disappointment and strengthen the extremes in question. Firstly, because this coalition of the reasonable looks very much like a coalition of the better-off. Excluding the working class from government is certainly not the way out of the democratic crisis. Secondly, electoral democracy needs clear and
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Let’s face it: France will not emerge from its current political crisis by inventing a new central coalition. The idea that the country should be governed by bringing together all the so-called « reasonable » parties, from the center-left to the center-right, from the Parti Socialiste (PS) to Les Républicains (LR), excluding the « extremes » – La France Insoumise (LFI) on the left and the Rassemblement National (RN) on the right – is a dangerous illusion, which will only lead to further disappointment and strengthen the extremes in question. Firstly, because this coalition of the reasonable looks very much like a coalition of the better-off. Excluding the working class from government is certainly not the way out of the democratic crisis. Secondly, electoral democracy needs clear and accepted alternations to function properly.
The virtue of the left-right bipolarization, provided that its content is sufficiently rapidly renewed in the face of global change, is that it makes such alternations possible. Two coalitions driven by antagonistic but coherent visions of the future and based on divergent socio-economic interests alternate in power, and this is how voters can form their opinions, adjust their votes and have confidence in the democratic system itself. It was this virtuous model that enabled the consolidation of democracy throughout the 20th century, and it is toward a new left-right bipolarization that we must move today if we wish to avoid democratic disintegration.
Once that’s acknowledged, how do we proceed? In countries with a first-past-the-post system, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, bipolarization is a matter of course. But you have to know what kind of bipolarization you want. Across the Channel, Labour has replaced the Conservatives, but with a program so timid that it is already generating mistrust, having won power with a low score and thanks to very strong divisions on the right. Across the Atlantic, bipolarization has turned in on itself. After abandoning any redistributive ambitions, the Democrats have become, over the last few decades, the party of the most highly educated, and of the highest income earners.
The Republicans retain a strong support base among the business world, but they have succeeded at little cost in attracting the popular vote by breaking with the Democrats’ dogma of free trade and liberal, urban and elitist globalization. Time will tell whether a new turnaround is possible. What is certain is that it will require a major change of course for the Democrats. In a democracy, it’s impossible to obtain your best scores among both the most privileged and the most disadvantaged. If the Democrats want to become the party of social justice once again, it must accept the loss of the vote of the privileged by proposing vigorous redistribution measures, which will have to respond not only to the aspirations of the urban working class but also to that of small towns and rural areas. For example, you can’t bet everything on canceling student debt: You also need to reach out to those who have taken on debt to buy a home or a small business.
In the French context, these kinds of questions are posed differently. The left is still very much alive, but here too it has lost the popular vote in the towns and villages hard hit by trade liberalization, deindustrialization and the absence of public services. In 1981, the left scored virtually the same among the working class, whatever the size of the town or city. Over the last few decades, a territorial divide on a scale unseen for a century has emerged between the urban working class (who continue to vote left) and the rural working class (who have switched to the RN). It is on this territorial divide that the political tripartition was built: A n objectively very privileged central bloc intends to govern the country based on the divisions between the urban and rural working classes between the left and right blocs (A History of Political Conflict, by Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty, 2023).
The presidential election can play a useful role in breaking out of this tripartition: It encourages people to come together in the second round, and can speed up the advent of a new bipolarization. But that won’t be enough: What we need above all is in-depth work within the political parties and the citizens who support them. On the left, the parties must learn to deliberate and settle their differences democratically, first by MPs from the Nouveau Front Populaire left-wing coalition voting among themselves, then by directly involving left-wing voters. The priority must be to respond to the aspirations of the working classes in all territories, and to rally people far beyond each party’s electoral base. In particular, LFI will have to show humility and accept a simple fact: Its current electoral core is real, but it is a minority in the country, and can hardly envisage victory in the second round.
On the right, it’s time for LR and the more right-wing factions of the Macronist camp to accept the idea that they need to form a majority coalition with the RN. This is already what they did when they voted for the immigration law and many other texts (such as the anti-tenant law). It’s time to openly embrace the union of the right, otherwise it will sooner or later be imposed at the ballot box. This is also what will force the RN to move away from easy posturing and to shift its economic and budgetary discourse to the right, contributing to the emergence of a new bipolarization. What is certain is that it is not healthy to leave LFI and RN outside the system: They must both assume their place within their respective coalitions and face the difficult test of power. This is the price democracy will have to pay to emerge from its current crisis.