by In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, Europe can no longer content itself with declarations of intent. It urgently needs to pull itself together and regain a grip on world affairs, without any illusions about what will come from the United States. The crux of the matter is that it is impossible to face up to the socio-economic, climatic and geopolitical challenges that are shaking the planet as long as the European Union (EU) makes its decisions by the unanimous vote of all 27 member states. Unfortunately, this is currently the case for all major decisions, particularly those with budgetary or financial implications. The only way out of the impasse is for a strong core of countries, led by France and Germany, to finally put concrete proposals on the table enabling progress to be made
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In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, Europe can no longer content itself with declarations of intent. It urgently needs to pull itself together and regain a grip on world affairs, without any illusions about what will come from the United States. The crux of the matter is that it is impossible to face up to the socio-economic, climatic and geopolitical challenges that are shaking the planet as long as the European Union (EU) makes its decisions by the unanimous vote of all 27 member states. Unfortunately, this is currently the case for all major decisions, particularly those with budgetary or financial implications.
The only way out of the impasse is for a strong core of countries, led by France and Germany, to finally put concrete proposals on the table enabling progress to be made on both budgetary and institutional fronts, without waiting for unanimous agreement from the other countries. The concept of a strong core to overcome the obstacles of unanimous consensus has been raised many times in the past, most recently in the report by Mario Draghi proposing a massive investment plan for Europe.
The time has now come to give it substance and make real progress. For this to happen, three conditions have to be met: This core group must be given solid institutional and democratic foundations; it is essential that Germany, and not just France, Italy or Spain, should be able to play its part, particularly on the budgetary front; and within each country, and at the European level as a whole, several political visions, from both the right and left, must be able to express themselves and flourish.
Strengthened parliamentary union
Let’s start with the first point. To create a core group of countries capable of making important budgetary and financial decisions with all the necessary democratic legitimacy, it is important to base it on a solid institutional and political framework. The most logical starting point would be the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly (FGPA), set up in 2019 as part of the renewal of the bilateral Franco-German treaty. A young and little-known institution, made up of 100 lawmakers from all the parliamentary groups in the Assemblée Nationale and Bundestag, the APFA has met between two and three times a year since its creation and has so far been confined to a mainly consultative role.
But there’s nothing to prevent the two countries from giving it an essential decision-making role, particularly on budgetary matters, and opening it up to all EU countries wishing to join this strong core, thus transforming it into a genuine European assembly, as in the draft « Manifesto for the Democratization of Europe » (tdem.eu). This strengthened parliamentary union, which could be called a « European parliamentary union » (EPU), would bring together within the EU those countries ready to unite further to influence world affairs and invest in the future, and in particular to borrow jointly to finance investments in energy, transport, research and new technologies.
Let’s turn to the second point. While some countries, such as France, Italy and Spain, can identify with such a vision, the central difficulty has always been to convince Germany, which is very reticent about the idea of joint borrowing, or even borrowing in general. This situation is now changing: A growing segment of the German public understands that the country urgently needs to invest in its infrastructure, in the disadvantaged regions of the East as well as throughout the country. This is now the majority opinion of German economists, recently joined by a large proportion of employers. In fact, the issue is in the process of shattering the coalition between the left and the liberals.
To overcome the last remaining reservations, however, it’s necessary to demonstrate that joint European borrowing is the right tool and guarantee that it will not lead to a « transfer union, » an absolute bogeyman on the other side of the Rhine. For example, it can be stipulated in advance that transfers will not exceed 0.1% of GDP (article 9 of the draft TDEM, see tdem.eu). This is unfortunate: If students from all over Europe are going to attend the same campuses to prepare for the future of the continent, then one day we’ll have to stop complex calculations and address all Europeans indiscriminately. But in the meantime, we need to find ways to move forward and build trust between countries and states with different histories. It’s worth the effort. The euro and the European Central Bank (ECB) now have such a global financial footprint that it’s in everyone’s interest to agree to borrow together, even without transfers.
Third and last point: For a project of such importance to see the light of day, it is essential that several political visions can be brought together. In the Draghi report, the approach is deliberately liberal and technophile. The former ECB president insists on public subsidies for private investment, for example in industry or artificial intelligence, and on clusters of excellence in major metropolises. Liberals and the right will also be in agreement and will no doubt emphasize the strengthening of military budgets and the promotion of a « fortress Europe. »
The left, on the other hand, will place the emphasis on social, educational and health investments, and infrastructure open to the greatest number of people, in poor suburbs as well as in outlying regions, as well as on tax justice objectives. It will be up to the European assembly and national parliaments to decide, on the basis of contradictory deliberations, under the watchful eye of Europe’s citizens. What does it matter if this reinforced union begins with just a few countries? The urgent need today is to react to the shock of Trumpism by asserting the strength of European values – those of parliamentary democracy, the social state and investment in the future.