[unable to retrieve full-text content]Given what I know about the Fed’s reaction function, I believe pre-conditions favor Fed tightening irrespective of the slope of the yield curve.
The post Central bank tightening during a global growth slowdown as the curve flattens appeared first on Credit Writedowns.
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Equities in a holding pattern
The latest is that market are expected to fall after US President Donald Trump tweeted about US plans to undertake military strikes in Syria. This is after an up day that follows a down day for stocks. The days of low volatility are well and truly over.

Source: CBOE

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The VIX is trading above 20 now, up from lows below 10, before the ‘Great Correction’ in early February. I was just re-reading what I wrote at that time. And what caught my eye was the part where I said, “For now, I’m not particularly worried. When the fundamentals take a knock, that’s when we should worry. Let’s wait for the CPI next week and revisit this conversation.”
The CPI numbers were benign. But now we

[unable to retrieve full-text content]I have a lot of links on the Trump investigation. The key factor: while the Cohen warrant is Stormy Daniels related, it opens the whole Trump Organization to discovery.
The post Links: Trump enraged at Mueller investigation appeared first on Credit Writedowns.
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]Last week, Lael Brainard gave an important speech on financial stability. In effect, she said the Fed is likely to require increased capital buffers in the future. The key to if and when is in how large mitigating factors are in keeping financial stability concerns at bay.
The post Countercyclical capital buffers as the Fed’s third tightening channel appeared first on Credit Writedowns.
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

China cannot use its Treasury holdings as leverage. Here’s why

HomeMarketsChina cannot use its Treasury holdings as leverage. Here’s why

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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Weak jobs report puts a dampener on the Fed’s increasingly hawkish policy stance

HomeEconomyWeak jobs report puts a dampener on the Fed’s increasingly hawkish policy stance

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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Former Fed insider Daielle DiMartino Booth knows the Fed will be out of bullets at the next recession. Even so, its Chairman Jay Powell is now desperately trying to create as much runway as possible.
The post Inflation is building and the Fed will react: DiMartino Booth appeared first on Credit Writedowns.
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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Stocks fall below 200-day moving average as concern over Trump’s policies mounts

HomeMarketsStocks fall below 200-day moving average as concern over Trump’s policies mounts

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