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Baseline Scenario

The Baseline Scenario is a blog created after the financial crisis in 2007-2008 by Professors Simon Johnson (MIT Sloan) and James Kwak (University of Connecticut School of Law). The blog examins issues that plague the global economy.

COVID-19: Not One Penny

By James Kwak The airline industry is trying to hold up the federal government for $29 billion in grants and another $29 billion in loans. They threaten that if they don’t get the grants they will lay off employees, and that if they don’t get the loans they will use their remaining cash on dividends and stock buybacks. Photo by Júlia Orige from PixabayFirst of all, the second threat is staggering in its audacity. At current course and speed, the airlines will go bankrupt. When you are in...

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COVID-19: Not One Penny

By James Kwak The airline industry is trying to hold up the federal government for $29 billion in grants and another $29 billion in loans. They threaten that if they don’t get the grants they will lay off employees, and that if they don’t get the loans they will use their remaining cash on dividends and stock buybacks. Photo by Júlia Orige from PixabayFirst of all, the second threat is staggering in its audacity. At current course and speed, the airlines will go bankrupt. When you are in...

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COVID-19: Who Bears the Losses?

By James Kwak Our business and household sectors are losing lots of money every day, and will continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. People no longer spend money at restaurants. Restaurant owners can no longer pay the rent or pay back their business loans. Restaurants fire their workers, who lose their paychecks and can no longer pay their rent, or their credit card bills, or their student debt. In an economic crisis like this, the overriding question is: who ultimately bears...

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COVID-19: Who Bears the Losses?

By James Kwak Our business and household sectors are losing lots of money every day, and will continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. People no longer spend money at restaurants. Restaurant owners can no longer pay the rent or pay back their business loans. Restaurants fire their workers, who lose their paychecks and can no longer pay their rent, or their credit card bills, or their student debt. In an economic crisis like this, the overriding question is: who ultimately bears...

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Thoughts About COVID-19: PPE

By James Kwak PPE, as we now know, stands for Personal Protective Equipment, like face masks and gloves. Right now there isn’t enough of it, and that’s one of the constraints on being able to test people, which is one of the biggest problems we face. Photo by ehpien (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) The only point I want me make here is this: This is how capitalism is supposed to work. If you’re a for-profit healthcare provider—or any kind of provider that is trying to provide the most value, however...

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Thoughts About COVID-19: PPE

By James Kwak PPE, as we now know, stands for Personal Protective Equipment, like face masks and gloves. Right now there isn’t enough of it, and that’s one of the constraints on being able to test people, which is one of the biggest problems we face. Photo by ehpien (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)The only point I want me make here is this: This is how capitalism is supposed to work. If you’re a for-profit healthcare provider—or any kind of provider that is trying to provide the most value, however...

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About that Democratic Primary …

By James Kwak Today is the day of the New Hampshire primary, and, perhaps more importantly, lots of people in California are getting their ballots around now. Before you cast your vote in the Democratic presidential primary, I wish you would read Take Back Our Party, either online (for free) or in print. But I know most of you won’t, so this is what I want to say. As a preamble, if you are a moderate Democrat—if you think welfare reform and financial deregulation were good ideas; if you...

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About that Democratic Primary …

By James Kwak Today is the day of the New Hampshire primary, and, perhaps more importantly, lots of people in California are getting their ballots around now. Before you cast your vote in the Democratic presidential primary, I wish you would read Take Back Our Party, either online (for free) or in print. But I know most of you won’t, so this is what I want to say. As a preamble, if you are a moderate Democrat—if you think welfare reform and financial deregulation were good ideas; if you...

Read More »

Take Back Our Party, Print Edition

By James Kwak I’ve never wanted to write a book as much as I wanted to write Take Back Our Party. And I’ve never wanted people to read one of my books as much as this one—in particular, before the 2020 Democratic primary season ends. For that reason, I bypassed the usual publication route. (As my editor at Pantheon liked to say, the period for turning a manuscript into a book is, for unknown reasons, the same as the gestation period of a human. In his defense, he did get both 13...

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Take Back Our Party, Print Edition

By James Kwak I’ve never wanted to write a book as much as I wanted to write Take Back Our Party. And I’ve never wanted people to read one of my books as much as this one—in particular, before the 2020 Democratic primary season ends. For that reason, I bypassed the usual publication route. (As my editor at Pantheon liked to say, the period for turning a manuscript into a book is, for unknown reasons, the same as the gestation period of a human. In his defense, he did get both 13...

Read More »