Heterodox
I want to talk about an interesting overconfidence experiment that one of my professors subjected us to back in the day… So the deal is that you are given 10 numbers you are supposed to come up with guesses for, say like the current Wal-Mart stock price (you’re not allowed to check), the number of jelly beans in a jar, whatever. More specifically, you’re asked to come up with a “90% confidence interval” as your guess- in other words, give a range where you think the real number is going to...
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