by I have a piece in The Conversation arguing against the common practice of publishing projections, based on holding constant parameters that are unlikely to remain so in practice. I suggest modellers need to bite the bullet, make predictions and stand by them. A slight clarification, arising from discussion. To the extent that we are concerned with policy, it’s fine to make conditional predictions about the consequences of alternative policy packages. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
Topics:
John Quiggin considers the following as important: Uncategorized
This could be interesting, too:
John Quiggin writes Dispensing with the US-centric financial system
John Quiggin writes How to dispense with Trump’s US
John Quiggin writes Trump has thrown out the global economic playbook. It’s time for Australia to write its own rules
tom writes Germany’s election & why it is important to understand the Ukraine War
I have a piece in The Conversation arguing against the common practice of publishing projections, based on holding constant parameters that are unlikely to remain so in practice. I suggest modellers need to bite the bullet, make predictions and stand by them.
A slight clarification, arising from discussion. To the extent that we are concerned with policy, it’s fine to make conditional predictions about the consequences of alternative policy packages.