Thursday , September 23 2021
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

FX Crises and the Trajectory of Interest Rates

In this post, I want to get a sense of foreign exchange crises since 2008. The data that I am using is taken from the World Bank. It is not perfect. It is a bit spotty and could be improved upon. It is also annual data, so it will not pick up intrayear crises. But it is solid enough that it should give us a good first cut on the dynamics of foreign exchange crises. The first question to ask is simple enough: how many foreign exchange crises were experienced in this time period? For...

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Is China Facing a Minsky Moment?

As Evergrande looks about to default on its debt many are asking whether this might be a Lehman moment for China. That is, are we about to see a wave of defaults that bring down the Chinese financial system as we did in Western countries in 2008? Much of the discussion is based on a misunderstanding. The Western financial system as it stood in 2008 was a largely laissez-faire system. There were, of course, regulations in place and there were also protections – most notably, deposit...

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Μνήμη Terry McDonough – In memoriam

Πέθανε στις 17/9/2021 ο Terry McDonough. Στη μνήμη του αναρτήθηκε στην ιστοσελίδα της Επιστημονικής Εταιρείας Πολιτικής Οικονομίας (https://politicaleconomy.gr/main/en/memoriam-terrence-mcdonough) το ακόλουθο κείμενο στα ελληνικά και στα αγγλικά Στη μνήμη του Terrence McDonough O θάνατος του Terrence McDonough στις 7 Σεπτεμβρίου 2021 κάνει το ρεύμα της Πολιτικής Οικονομίας φτωχότερο. Ο Terrence McDonough ήταν ένας από τους σημαντικότερους νεώτερους υποστηρικτές της...

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Australia’s COVID plan was designed before we knew how Delta would hit us …

… We need more flexibility. That’s the headline for my latest piece in The Conversation https://theconversation.com/australias-covid-plan-was-designed-before-we-knew-how-delta-would-hit-us-we-need-more-flexibility-168189 (with Richard Holden and Steven Hamilton) Conclusion In these rapidly changing times it makes no sense to fix a policy plan based on a months-old model. We need to respond flexibly to new evidence as it comes to hand. We need to consider all kinds of data,...

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Econometrics — a second-best explanatory practice

from Lars Syll Consider two elections, A and B. For each of them, identify the events that cause a given percentage of voters to turn out. Once we have thus explained the turnout in election A and the turnout in election B, the explanation of the difference (if any) follows automatically, as a by-product. As a bonus, we might be able to explain whether identical turnouts in A and B are accidental, that is, due to differences that exactly offset each other, or not. In practice, this...

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On the road again

And heading South out of Denver into the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico. Get to “Dan” for issues and problems. More on healthcare when I settle in tonight, Doing some deeper dives into Biden’s ACA modifications, Medicare, and Jayapal’s Bill. Have to split them apart otherwise it would be as long as the opioid’s post. You should read the long Purdue – opioid post, if you have not. I layout the time line of when Purdue introduced...

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