Understanding the situation in Ukraine and how it will likely evolve in the future is impossible for me, partly due the inherent complexity and unpredictability of war and international relations, and partly because the main players have such strong incentives to strategically misrepresent their actions and intentions. Are the Ukrainians really getting killed by Russian artillery fire in unsustainable numbers, or are the Ukrainians putting pressure on Biden and the Europeans to step up arms deliveries? Is the U.S. committed to supplying the Ukrainians with needed weapons as rapidly as training and logistics permit, or are we slow-walking arms deliveries? Are we willing to leave the end-game negotiations entirely to the Ukrainians, or are we
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Understanding the situation in Ukraine and how it will likely evolve in the future is impossible for me, partly due the inherent complexity and unpredictability of war and international relations, and partly because the main players have such strong incentives to strategically misrepresent their actions and intentions. Are the Ukrainians really getting killed by Russian artillery fire in unsustainable numbers, or are the Ukrainians putting pressure on Biden and the Europeans to step up arms deliveries? Is the U.S. committed to supplying the Ukrainians with needed weapons as rapidly as training and logistics permit, or are we slow-walking arms deliveries? Are we willing to leave the end-game negotiations entirely to the Ukrainians, or are we prepared to pressure Ukraine into a land-for-peace deal by withholding material support? Even if Biden/European leaders are willing to support the Ukrainians now, how will public opinion evolve (against Ukraine, I am afraid)? What happens if Russia turns off the oil or gas spigots? If Ukraine holds off the current Russian onslaught, will they be able to mount a sustainable offensive to reclaim captured land?
Granted I am not at all an expert in military affairs and international relations, but people who spend their lives studying these issues come to different conclusions that to me seem at least somewhat plausible.
Some links:
Logistical challenges getting HIMARS/MLRS to Ukraine.
Russian energy warfare.
Russian information warfare, outwaiting public opinion.
And Biden asks Blinken and Austin to tone it down on war aims. (I guess it’s message discipline for thee, but not for me.)