RJS, Focus on Fracking

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Summary: Natural gas price hits 164 month high after doubling in 2 months; SPR at a 1058 week low, total US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high; natural gas rigs at a 31 month high..

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Natural gas prices hit 164 month high after doubling in 2 months

Oil prices rose for the third time in four weeks after the EU advanced a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil . . . after rising 2.6% to $104.69 a barrel last week as fears of lower supplies from Russia outweighed concerns about reduced demand from China, the contract price for US light sweet crude for June delivery opened

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Trade Deficit Rose 22.3% to Record High in March on Higher Imports of Industrial Supplies & Materials and Consumer Goods

Our trade deficit was at another record high in March, 22.3% higher than February’s record, as both our imports and exports increased, but our imports increased by quite a bit more . . . the Commerce Department’s report on our international trade in goods and services for March indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $20.0 billion to $109.8 billion in March, from a February deficit that was revised from the originally reported record $89.2 billion to a record $89.8 billion . . . in rounded totals, the value of our March exports rose by $12.9 billion to

RJS, Focus on Fracking,

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 1058 week low, US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 29th indicated that because of an increase in our oil imports, a decrease in our oil exports, a withdrawal from the SPR, and a slowdown in our refining, we again had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies, for the 9th time in 23 weeks and for the 18th time in the past forty-eight weeks, even after a big decrease in oil that could not be accounted

RJS; Focus on Fracking

Oil Prices Top $111 As Biden’s SPR Buyback Plan Leaks —

The Biden Administration will purchase 60 million barrels of crude in Q3 (Yahoo) in an effort to replace volumes in the U.S. strategic petroleum for the first time in nearly 20 years, CNN reports, after authorizing a record release over six months.

Citing an unnamed Energy Department official, CNN said what is referred to as a “long-term buyback plan” for oil would be announced later on Thursday. Delivery of those first 60 million barrels, according to CNN, would be paid for with revenue received from sales of emergency oil, while the time frame is not specific beyond “future years”.

Oil jumped to $111.5 per barrel for Brent–the highest price since late March

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Construction Spending Rose 0.1% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Higher

The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,730.5 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* above the revised annualized February estimate of $1,728.6 billion, and 11.7 percent (±1.0 percent) above the estimated annualized level of construction spending in March of last year . . . Census also reports that for the first three months of this year, construction spending has totaled $376.6 billion, 12.0 percent (±1.0 percent) above the $336.3 billion spent during the same three

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: New Home Sales Reported 8.6% Lower on Record Prices in March, after Prior Months Sales Revised Much Higher

The Census report on New Residential Sales for March (pdf) estimated that new single family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 homes during the month, which was 8.6 percent (±12.9 percent)* below the revised February annual sales rate of 835,000, and 12.6 percent (±11.3 percent) below the estimated annual rate that new homes were selling at during March of last year . . . the asterisk indicates that based on their small sampling, Census could not tell whether March new home sales rose or fell from home sales of February, with the figures in parenthesis representing the 90%

RJS, MarketWatch 666

1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories

Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than offset by weaker investment in inventories and a record trade deficit, which subtracted over 3 percent from GDP . . . the Advance Estimate of 1st Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that the real output of goods and services produced in the US contracted at a 1.4% annual rate from the output of the 4th quarter of 2021, when our real output grew at a 6.9% real rate . . . in current dollars, our first quarter

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + product inventories at an 13½ year low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 22nd indicated that because of a drop in our oil exports and a big increase in oil that could not be accounted for, we managed to add oil to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 8th time in 22 weeks and for the 17th time in the past forty-seven weeks . . . our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 98,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,934,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average

RJS; MarketWatch 666

Summary: March industrial production: G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for March indicates industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago.

Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record in March

The Fed’s G17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March indicated that industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago . . . the industrial production index, with the benchmark set for average 2017 production to be equal to 100.0, was at

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low after record jump in exports; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + products inventories at an 8 year low; a total oil + products exports at a record high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 15th indicated that because of a record increase in our oil exports, we had to withdraw oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 14th time in 21 weeks and for the 30th time in the past forty-six weeks. Our  imports of crude oil fell by an average of 159,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,837,000 barrels per

Commenter and Blogger Dale Coberly

I have been reading William Manchester’s biography of Winston Churchill. I do not know how reliable Manchester is, but I think I have learned more about a couple of things I thought I knew about, which might be worth thinking about with regard to events in Ukraine.

Churchill was a very gifted man who made mistakes, but he got Hitler right when no one else did, and so earned his place in History. In the past I have liked to point out that Neville Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” appeasement of Hitler over Czechoslovakia bought England the time it needed to rearm before Hitler started WW2.  I thought Chamberlain understood this and accepted the permanent stain on his reputation to “take one for the team.”  It

RJS Summary; Global oil surplus at 710,000 barrels per day in March despite OPEC’s 821,000 barrel per day production shortfall

OPEC’s Report on Global Oil for March

Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC’s April Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for March, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation after OPEC and aligned oil producers agreed to increase their output by 400,000 barrels per day for an eighth consecutive month, ie from the previously agreed to July 2021 level, which was in turn part of the fifth production quota policy reset that they’ve made over the past twenty-two months, all in response to the pandemic-related slowdown and subsequent irregular recovery

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Producer Prices Rose 1.4% in March, Annual Increase at 11.2%, with Goods Up 15.7%, Services Up 8.7%, All Record Highs

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.4% in March, as average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.3% and final demand for services rose 0.9% . . . that increase followed a revised 0.9% increase in February, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.3% while final demand for services rose 0.3%, a revised 1.2% increase in January, when wholesale goods prices rose 1.6% and the price index for final demand for services rose 0.9%, a revised 0.6% increase in December, when average prices for finished wholesale goods fell 0.1%, but margins of

RJS, Focus on Fracking;

Summary; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20-year low; US distillates exports at a 45 month high leaves domestic supplies at an 8 year low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 8th indicated that after a near record decrease in our oil exports, we were able to add surplus oil to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 7th time in 20 weeks and for the 16th time in the past forty-five weeks . . . our  imports of crude oil fell by an average of 305,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,995,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 41,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of

April 10 2022 Natural Gas PricesRJS, Focus on Fracking,

Summary; US natural gas prices hit 13 year high on falling production, falling inventories

Oil prices ended the week lower for the fourth time out of the last five weeks, as the IEA countries joined the US in an unprecedented release of emergency oil reserves . . . after falling 12.8% to $99.27 a barrel last week after China locked down their largest city and Biden announced an unprecedented release of oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the contract price for US light sweet crude for May delivery opened somewhat lower again on Monday as traders digested the details on the SPR release amid a ceasefire agreement on the Saudi-Yemeni border, but jumped as much as 4% after Saudi Arabia

RJS, MarketWatch 666, Summary: US Trade Deficit Virtually Unchanged in February, Near Record High

US trade deficit ticked lower February, as both our exports and imports increased, but the value of our exports rose slightly more than the value of our imports did . . . the Commerce Department report on our international trade in goods and services for February indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by less than $0.1 billion ($44 million) to $89.182 billion (reported as $89.2 billion) in February, from a January deficit that was revised down to $89.229 billion (also reported as $89.2 billion) from the record $89.7 billion deficit reported a month ago…in rounded figures, the value of our February exports

If readers are wondering what is the US doing to alleviate the rising prices of oil during the pandemic and the Russian invasion, RJS has written a good summation of what is going on in the US and where we might be during the drawdown of the SPR. It is dense reading due to the detail.

RJS’s Summary; US oil supplies at a 14-year low; SPR at a 19½ year low; distillates exports at a 21 month high; total oil + products exports at a 2 year high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 1st indicated that even after a big increase in our oil exports, we were able to add surplus oil to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 6th time in 19 weeks

RJS, MarketWatch 666

“February” Durable Goods: New Orders Down 2.2%, Shipments Flat, Inventories Up 0.4%

The “Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for February” (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by $6.0 billion or 2.2 percent to $271.5 billion in February, the first decrease in five months, after January’s new orders were revised from the $277.5 billion reported last month to $277.6 billion, still a 1.6% increase from December’s new orders . . . even with February’s big decrease, however, year to date new orders are still up by 14.2% from those of 2021…

The volatile monthly new orders for transportation

RJS, Focus on Fracking,

US oil supplies are at a 13½ year low, but oil exports are at a 8 month high; SPR at a 19½ year low after biggest draw since Aug 2011, gasoline exports at a 39 month  high; distillate supplies at a 95 month low, total oil + products supplies at a 95 month low after across the board drawdowns.

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 18th indicated that after a second straight big increase in our oil exports, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the twelfth time in 17 weeks and for the 28th time in the past forty-two weeks, despite another big increase to oil supply that could not be

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Retail Sales Rose 0.3 % in February After January’s Sales were Revised 1.0% Higher

Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 0.3% in February after retail sales for January were revised 1.0% higher . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for February (above) from the Census Bureau estimated our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $658.1 billion during the month, which was 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* higher than January’s revised sales of $656.1 billion, and 17.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above the adjusted sales in February of last year . . . January’s seasonally adjusted sales were revised up from $649.8 billion to $656.1 billion, while December’s sales were revised from $626.3 billion down to $625,459

RJS, Focus on Fracking; Oil prices went on another wild ride, but i’m going to copy what I wrote on the monthly OPEC report here. The oil surplus, albeit small, surprised me. If it was going to happen, it would be during the winter for most of the planet’s driving population. Note this is for February, before the Russian sh*t really hit the fan . . .

February global oil surplus of 360,000 barrels per day is first in 13 months, despite OPEC production shortfall of 668,000 barrels per day 

OPEC Oil Report for February

Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC’s March Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for February, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation after ‘OPEC+’

RJS, Focus on Fracking,

Commercial crude supply rise as SPR falls to 19½ year low, total oil + products supply at new 95 month low; exports of distillates at a 20-month high after largest drop in domestic demand in 18 months

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 11th indicated that even after a big increase in our oil exports, we still had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the fifth time in 16 weeks and for the 15th time in the past forty-two weeks, because of a big increase in oil supplies that could not be accounted for . . . our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 76,000 barrels per day to an

RJS; MarketWatch 666, Covered here is everything having a major price change. This includes the 2.4% increase in the price index for men’s underwear, the 3.8% increase in the price index for women’s underwear, and also prices for what are now more than 40 items having a double-digit year over year increase.

CPI Rose 0.8% in February on Higher Prices for Food, Fuel, Clothing, Appliances, Rent, Insurance, & Airfare; Annual Inflation at a 40 Year High

The consumer price index rose 0.8% in February, as higher prices for food, fuel. clothing, rent, airfares, health and car insurance, and appliances and were only slightly offset by lower prices for electricity, used vehicles, and telephone hardware . . . the Consumer Price Index Summary from the

RJS, Focus on Fracking, Oil jumps $15 to a 13½ year high, then tumbles $21; natural gas supplies now 16% below normal

Oil prices fell for just the second time since November this week, but not before jumping nearly $15 to a new 13½ year high before the market even opened for the week . . . after rising 26.3% to a 13½ year high of $115.68 a barrel last week after much of Russia’s oil was sanctioned or eschewed by the market, the contract price for US light sweet crude for April delivery shot up nearly $15 to $130.50 a barrel in off market trading on Sunday on the prospect for a full embargo of Russian oil and products by aligned Western countries, but pulled back from that peak in Asian trading after it became clear to oil traders Germany and other

RJS, MarketWatch 666, including estimates on the hit to GDP . . . the December deficit was revised up to what would have been a record high at the same time.

US Trade Deficit Rose 9.4% to a Record High in January After December Deficit Revised Higher

Our trade deficit rose 9.4% in January, as the value of our exports decreased while the value of our imports increased . . . the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for January indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by a rounded $7.7 billion to a rounded $89.7 billion in January, from a December deficit that was revised up from $80.7 billion to $82.0 billion, while all prior monthly trade deficit figures for 2021 were revised as

RJS, Focus on Fracking, The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 4th indicated that even after a big drop in our oil exports and an increase in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the eleventh time in 15 weeks and for the 27th time in the past forty-one weeks because of a big increase in demand that could not be unaccounted for . . . our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 552,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,319,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 1,061,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,374,000 barrels per

RJS, Focus on Fracking, Largest one-week price jump on record leaves oil prices at a 13½ year high

Oil prices increased for the tenth time in eleven weeks this week, and finished at a 13 1/2 year high, after a combination of sanctions, the threat of sanctions, and threats to shipping in the Black Sea had taken more than half of Russian oil off the market . . . after ending last week up 1.5% at $91.59 a barrel after earlier hitting $100 with the onset of war in Ukraine, the contract price for US light sweet crude for April delivery  opened more than 3% higher on Monday, after the U.S. and Western allies imposed sanctions on Russian banks, prompting fears that payment for oil exports would be affected, and quickly spiked more than 7% to trade above

RJS, MarketWatch 666; January’s construction spending

As usual, I estimate the impact of revisions to prior months on 4th quarter GDP, and the impact of the January report on 1st quarter GDP…

Construction Spending Up 1.3% on Higher Costs in January after December and November Spending Was Revised Higher

The Census Bureau’s report on January construction spending (pdf) estimated January’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,677.2 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 1.3 percent (±0.8 percent) above the revised annualized estimate of $1,655.8 billion for construction spending in December, and 8.2 percent (±1.2 percent) above the estimated annualized level of construction spending of

RJS, Everything Got Worse . . .

US oil supplies at a 13-year low; SPR at a 19 1/2-year low, total oil + products supply at a 94-month low after across the board draws; distillate supplies at a twenty-seven-month low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 25th indicated that after a big jump in our oil exports and a drop in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the tenth time in 14 weeks and for the 26th time in the past forty weeks . . . our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,061,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,767,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Here I (run75441) am being lectured by the author, RJS. “last week you asked me to write something explaining how & why the GDP deflators were revised. So I did, expanding the paragraph I was going to write on it to six, and included it as an addendum to my usual reporting on the GDP revision at Marketwatch 666, however, three days after I sent it to you, it’s still not up on AB.

I think it’s important, and that it will continue to impact seasonally adjusted data going forward, since I see no easy way that pandemic related impacts could be isolated from other impacts. Even if the agencies attempt to adjust the seasonally adjustments for pandemic impacts, it will be at best an educated fudge. That educated fudge will remain