I have heard of this. Have not used it. But, I wonder what will happen to our own creativity. We humans are supposed to be a curious, thoughtful, and an intelligent specious. We do the unexpected in different environments and situations which makes us unique. No two of us are alike or react the same. “It is a spectacular scientific puzzle that human beings are the sole species that seems to be able to think and feel beyond the limits of the scale for their species.1” Do we need we need a machine to do our thinking for us when exposed to reality? Prof. Zetland, The One-Handed Economist talks of ChatGPT and its dangers.

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Learning is struggle, The One-Handed Economist, David Zetland

ChatGPT excites people who think (I use this word with

“France Is Furious”: Anger Grows at Macron for Raising Retirement Age as Millions Strike and Protest (rsn.org), Democracy Now.

This is what happens when you let “the government” (“rich” taxpayers of a “progressive” tax) pay for your Social Security.  American Social Security was created “worker paid” by FDR exactly to avoid this (“so no damn politician can take it away from them”).

And for more than 80 years that has worked.  but lately the Left has been calling ..”demanding” “make the rich pay.”  this is suicide.  If the rich pay, they willl own it and they will decide when you can retire,  but if we keep paying for it ourselves, then we can decide when to retire…when we need to, or when we want to, whether we have “hard” jobs or just want to

This is a mixture of my comments and comments pulled from multiple sources (BLS, Cosmopolitan, , Why do Child Labor Laws Matter? Federal laws provide a minimum of protections for child labor. The laws were enacted nearly a century ago in reaction to children being exposed to dangerous activities.

Edwin Markham “Child at the Loom.” Cosmopolitan

There was a time in this country when young children routinely worked legally. As industry grew in the period following the Civil War, children, often as young as 10 years old but sometimes much younger, labored. They worked not only in industrial settings but also in retail stores, on the streets, on farms, and in home-based industries. “History of child labor in the United States—part 1: little children

The Exxon Tiger Rampant, Bad Crow Review, Weldon Berger

Links are at the end, doing linky stuff.

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“confidence is high in the oil and gas world”

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And why not? Record profits, massive new drilling projects in delicate environs, a presidential pronouncement validating decades more of fossil fuel burning and did we mention fabulous profits? Why yes: yes we did. For practical purposes, fossil fuel companies have their foot on the necks of humanity. We can’t breathe.

Reminds me of Dick Cheney’s Dick Cheney, David Addington, talking about the limits of executive authority:

“We’re going to push and push

Infidel753, “Prosecuting Trump — a caveat,” Infidel753 Blog

It’s starting to look as if Trump may be indicted fairly soon, an event much of the left has been impatient to see for some time (what I myself most wanted was to simply never hear another word about him, but it’s clear that the reality we live in is not going to grant that wish for the foreseeable future).  The case coming to a head is the Stormy Daniels hush payment, but indictments on other matters will likely follow eventually.

There may, however, be a downside.  Don’t get me wrong — come what may, Trump must be held accountable for his crimes, most especially for his role in inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol.  Failure to do so would discredit American justice,

In your face …, Homeless on the High Desert, Gda says . . .

October 21, 2017 in White Rose

“In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods.”

…“It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove

Dale Coberly talking about the French President Macron forcing retirement reform and what could result if US Social Security is paid for by taxes on the rich in income.

Macron Bypasses Parliament With ‘Nuclear Option’ on Retirement Age Hike, commondreams.org, Jessica Corbett

[The following is copied from article cited in link, with some editing by me. My short comment is below.]

“Amid protests against French President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular plan to overhaul the country’s pension system, his government on Thursday chose the ‘nuclear option,’ opting to use a constitutional procedure to force through reforms, including raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, without a vote in the lower house of Parliament.

After announcing the

Dale Coberly talking about reforming entitlements and the impact on Social Security . . .

CRFB, “The Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget”, is an organization dedicated to reducing the National Debt or federal budget deficit, so it says.  But it seems to spend most of its time calling for  “reforming entitlements,” meaning “cut Social Security” which has nothing to do with the Debt/Deficit. Social Security is paid for entirely by the workers who will get the benefits.  In the past it has lent money TO the government, and today the government is paying that money back, just like any ordinary business.  This was done so the larger Baby Boom generation could pay in advance for it’s own benefits just like any other generation and not leave

* Please help my Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, or maybe just saying something nice. David Zetland

Bad management and dry taps in Turin, The one-handed economist

Kiara writes*

Water scarcity in the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy) is the result of climate change, weak government policy, and corruption.

Turin’s watershed stretches across 570 km2 at the foot of the Cottian Alps. With water coming from the Sangone, Dora, Stura and Po rivers (Italy’s longest), Turin does not seem a natural place for water scarcity, but now its citizens struggle for water.

The first issue Turin faces is leakage. According to a member of the Turin Water Committee, 47% of its 356

Open thread Feb. 24, 2023 – Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com)

Tags: open thread

David Zetland is teaching a class and he is asking for commentary, Commentary to help his Water Scarcity students by commenting on unclear analysis, alternative perspectives, better data sources, in this post or maybe just saying something nice 🙂 to them. I am sure we can do better . . .

“Seville: public water, private interests,” The one-handed economist

David writes*

The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that will suffer the most from climate change. From soil erosion to heatwaves and heavy precipitation, this territory has already started to endure the consequences of the changing weather. Within this context, Seville serves as a particularly interesting case to study the availability and management of one of humankind’s most

This is another inciteful commentary by “annie asks you.”

Just like Josh in the movie “Big,” I am raising my hand, stating “I don’t get it.” I don’t get it as to why people would prefer trump over Biden especially after two years of a recovering economy. Maybe many of them were not around for 2007/8 when the nation did not return to normalcy for years after the crash. A politician finally read the tea leaves, the nature of the economy (which is about the same as the leaves) and got it right.

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“Why Do Voters Trust Republicans on the Economy More Than Democrats?” annieasksyou…

“For all of the ‘pain at the pump’ stories, the answer is that wages and salaries have kept pace with inflation since Biden took office—and by this measure,

Perfect follow-up to Dean’s earlier commentary “Declining population and diminished national power is bad news?” which I also posted at Angry Bear. In Dean’s earlier commentary, he makes a point of declining population not being a big issue. Decreasing productivity would be a far bigger issue except it is not an issue in the US. The numbers of older people are increasing in the US. As Dean points out, “If wage growth moves in step with productivity (that’s a big if, but has nothing directly to do with demographics), before-tax real wages would be 16 percent higher at end of a recent 15 year period.” What if?

Suppose people over age 65 consume 70 percent as much per person as the working-age population, and that we tax workers to ensure the older

I have known Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice for multiple years now. He has been prompting some type of relief for those who will never be able to payback these loans or are in default.

Portfolio-by-Age.xls (live.com) as taken from here: Federal Student Loan Portfolio | Federal Student Aid

The information in the chart above is from EOY 2020 and the Federal Student Loan Portfolio, Federal Student Aid, “Portfolio by Age” The General Link and which Chart (link) the data is taken from to back up my numbers is also above.

For the over 62, tack on another $20 billion for EOY 2022. Three hundred- thousand more people are in this category. The average amount of time to pay back was 15 -17 years at $250/month. From over 50 and above, these debts

At Infidel753 blog, author Infidel has a great commentary from February 14th. He discusses an “exhausted majority” making up America which has found the ongoing politics to be unacceptable, having checked out of either side of the battle. Granted, the politics of elections and the thereafter has turned into a mudslinging contest. The news media reporting has helped to bring it to a new low. People do not even want to listen to the 20 of the 30 minutes of reported news after commercials are over.

Infidel753: The “exhausted majority,” Infidel753 Blog

The term “exhausted majority” has come up a few times recently in discussion, and it’s important to be clear about what it means.  It is not just another term for “centrist” or “moderate”, and it

Calculated Risk: MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” calculatedriskblog.com, Bill McBride

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2023 01:42:00 PM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was up 51 basis points from the third quarter of 2022 but still down 69 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter

Open thread February 7, 2023, Angry Bear, angrybearblog.com

Tags: open thread

Another take on wages and salaries outpacing inflation. Not so says Robert Shapiro.

Inflation Reality Check: Don’t Blame Wages and Salaries for High Prices, Washington Monthly, Robert J. Shapiro

Yes, economics can be complicated, and economic reporters work under tight deadlines. There is no excuse for the media meme blaming rising wages for much of today’s inflation. The Wall Street Journal summed up this erroneous view in a recent headline, “Rapid Wage Growth Keeps Pressure on Inflation.” The Journal’s self-serving take is refuted by the data and rejected by the International Monetary Fund. And with corporate profits growing much faster than wages and salaries, it’s morally noxious to imply that ordinary people are greedy and disrupting the

According to Pence, Republicans will come up with a Better Deal to replace Social Security. Allow younger people to place their funds in private and commercial investment funds. Funds from which a portion will be taken to manage them and to which will be exposed to the ups and downs of the economy.

Abandoning Social Security is part of the Republican plan to resolve the national debt. Countering this pan would be to allow the trump tax cut of 2017 to expire with corporation returning to paying what they should in taxes. Did we see a similar increase in economic activity after the trump tax break when compared to the last two years? No . . .

February 3, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson

Last night, former vice

Commentary from Letters from an American by commenter Fern McBride

Will it last?’ (excerpts).

The combination of a hiring boom and ebbing inflation has confounded forecasters, who’ve been warning of a recession, By David J. Lynch

Whether the United States can keep defying the recession odds may depend on what happens in industries such as leisure and hospitality, health care and entertainment. These service businesses are enjoying a boomlet as consumers return to their pre-pandemic lifestyles.

Restaurants can’t find workers because they’ve found better jobs.

Hotels, airlines and medical clinics all are hiring like mad. The Las Vegas Sands, a casino and resort company, lists 50 job openings on its website, including for cybersecurity

Black History Month is in February if you do not know it. Prof. Heather Cox Richardson celebrates it with a mixture of past and present facts, points, and references to it. Some of her points are ugly. Amongst her reverence to Black History Month is the detail of how the Battle Hymn of the Republic came to be.

“February 1, 2023,” Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson

On February 1, 1862, in the early days of the Civil War, the Atlantic Monthly published Julia Ward Howe’s “Battle Hymn of the Republic,” summing up the cause of freedom for which the United States troops would soon be fighting. “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord,” it began. 

“He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are

Dan Crawford: The passing of Barkley Rosser is terribly sad news. Angry Bear has had connection to Barkley since 2006 at least. He was also instrumental for helping Bruce Webb and the topic of Social Security gain traction nationally.

Tyler Cowen posted a link to his profile “Man in motion,”- JMU at James Madison University. “What economist J. Barkley Rosser can teach us about how we adapt to a changing world.“

Tags: Barkley Rosser

Economist David Zetland lets us know our place of birth has a much larger impact on our success or failure globally than what we suspect. It is not solely up to us to be successful. The country of our birth has a great impact.

The understanding of our luck to be where we are globally impacts our view of people’s success who our born into other countries.

“Born (un)lucky?” The one-handed economist, David Zetland

I was born an American and gained British citizenship (through my father) in my 20s. These two passports have allowed me to travel, live and work (until Brexit) in 20+ countries — all of them in the richest quartile of countries in the world.

People in the other three-quarters of the world’s countries have had fewer options in

Some history and knowledge about the House by Weldon @ Bad Crow Review. Known Weldon for a while now. He writes some good words. And this topic fits right in his wheelhouse of knowledge. Enjoy . . .

“How Long Before This Wears Off, Doc?” Weldon Berger, Bad Crow Review, “Could be a year, could be a lifetime . . .”

Links are at the end.

I’m pretty sure some of the fireworks which look white to me are actually some feeble shade of green. Taking matters into my own hands.

Nothing is unacceptable, for most people, in the sense that they’ll throw their brain and body into overcoming whatever it is. “This is unacceptable!” should be retired.

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Elect Someone

Infidel753: The ten most important events of 2022, Infidel753 Blog

1. The Ukraine war.  It’s sometimes hard to judge which event ranks most important in a given year, but this time, there was no question.  Putin’s invasion of Ukraine showed that his regime aspires to territorial expansion by crude, naked military force, a throwback to the pre-1945 order which we thought the world had cast off forever.  It showed that a medium-size nation determined to fight for its independence can mount a formidable resistance against a far larger invader.  It showed that democracies will rally together in the cause of resisting aggression by gangster-regimes, even leading Sweden and Finland to join NATO.  And it showed that the gross corruption and incompetence

15+ Websites to send great free New Year cards to friends and family (updated for 2021) (prwave.ro)

Angry Bear Readers and Writers 2023

US to purchase more oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

DOE Announces Repurchase of Oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, DOE.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves, December 16 announced that it will start repurchasing crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This repurchase is an opportunity to secure a good deal for American taxpayers by repurchasing oil at a lower price than the $96 per barrel average price it was sold for, as well as to strengthen energy security. 

President Joe Biden announced a plan to replenish the SPR using updated authorities allowing for fixed-price purchases of crude oil. The only thing I wonder about is whether the oil

AB writer, commenter and Social Security expert, Dale Coberly provides a different take on whether “President Biden Should Direct the Social Security Administration to Stop Penalizing Marriage.”

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Nancy Altman wrote the following piece, which appeared in PROGRESS AMERICA, on December 16, 2022 as well as Common Dreams.  I thought it needed a response because I regard it as dangerous to Social Security.  I have inserted my responses interlinear below embolden. 

Nancy Altman Begins here: 

Altman: Friend, I want to tell you a story―it’s a little long, but I think when we get to the end, it will be clear: President Biden should direct the Social Security Administration to stop penalizing marriage. 

Me: Social Security does not

Dale Coberly: Commentary on an article by Nancy Altman that I read yesterday:

“Senator Warnock’s Re-Election Is a Victory for Social Security,” Portside, Nancy J. Altman.

Nancy Altman wrote a pretty good book about Social Security [The Battle For Social Security (2005)] which I recommend. It’s readable and tells a story better than I can. In it, she explained the difference between worker paid insurance and welfare. And she told a story about how FDR intervened personally to keep his Committe on Economic Security, who wrote the plan, from turning it into welfare (“the dole”).

Unfortunately toward the end of the book she seems to have forgotten all of this and says, essentially,

“Social Security is not broken because it is paid for by the

Infidel753: No complacency after the election

Democrats have every right to celebrate the results of this month’s election.  The red wave fizzled out.  The Republicans took the House majority by only a tiny margin, which will be rendered unworkable by their own flaming-nutball fringe.  Democrats held the Senate and will probably get to 51-49 after the Georgia runoff.  Election denialists lost almost every race, and except in Arizona, there has been practically no “stolen election” nonsense.

Nevertheless, they should avoid complacency.  There are still reasons for concern going forward.

1.  Holding the Senate in 2024 will be very difficult.  Every Republican senator who will be up for re-election in 2024 is in a safely red state (with the