Tuesday , June 28 2022
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Articles by Angry Bear

Producer Prices Up and Record Increase for Final Demand Goods

5 days ago

RJS, MarketWatch 666

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Summary: Producer Prices Rose 0.8% in May; Record Annual Increase of 16.6% for Final Demand Goods

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.8% in May, as average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 1.4% while final demand for services was 0.4% higher. The increase followed a revised 0.4% increase in April, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 1.3% while final demand for services was 0.2% lower. Also following a revised 1.6% increase in March, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.4% and final demand for services rose 1.2% and a revised 1.1% increase in February, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.2%. Margins

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Retail Sales Fell in May, March and April Revised

6 days ago

RJS, MarketWatch 666

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Summary: Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in May After March and April Sales Were Revised Lower

Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.3% in May after retail sales for April were revised 0.4% lower. The  Advance Retail Sales Report for May (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $672.9 billion for the month, which was a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%) from April’s revised sales of $674.7 billion. This was 8.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above the adjusted sales of May of last year . . . April’s seasonally adjusted sales were revised from the record high $677.7 billion reported last month to $674.7 billion, while March sales were revised from $671.6 billion to

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Global Oil Surplus Per Day as OPEC output fell to 1.049 million bpd below quota

7 days ago

RJS: Focus on Fracking

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Summary: Global oil surplus at 560,000 barrels per day in May as OPEC output fell to 1.049 million bpd below quota

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OPEC’s Report on Global Oil for May

Tuesday of this week saw the release of OPEC’s June Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for May, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation at a time when major cities in China were under restrictive Covid lockdowns, while at the same time exports of Russian oil were curtailed by sanctions imposed by the West….in light of those offsetting circumstances, OPEC and aligned oil producers had again agreed to increase their output by 400,000 barrels per day for a tenth consecutive month, ie

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Social Security Report – 2022

8 days ago

Dale Coberly: The 2022 Social Security Report came out on June 2.

There were no surprises. Things are still predicted to turn out pretty much as they have been predicted to turn out since the 1990’s or earlier.

The Report projects the Trust Fund will run out of money in 2035. After that, benefits will need to be reduced about 20% or the tax will need to be increased about 4%. Workers who are not their own boss will see a tax increase of about 2%.

The Report projects Social Security “fails the test of short term financial adequacy.” This means the Trust Fund falls below 100% of prudent reserves within ten years. This is not necessarily a real problem, but it warns of a coming real problem: When the Trust Fund actually runs out of money in 2035

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RJS: EIA US Oil Supply and Disposition Report

9 days ago

Summary: US oil supplies at a 17½ year low. SPR at a 35 year low after the SPR largest withdrawal on record. Gasoline supplies at a 6-month low.

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The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 10th show that after a big increase in our oil imports, another big oil withdrawal from the SPR, and an increase in oil supplies not accounted for more than covered a near record jump in our oil exports. We had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 7th time in 11 weeks, and for the 22nd time in the past 50 weeks, Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 831,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,985,000 barrels per day,

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April Trade Deficit Decreases on Lower Imports

12 days ago

RJS: MarketWatch 666

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Summary: April Trade Deficit Decreased by a record 19.1%, Led by Lower Imports of Consumer Goods and Industrial Supplies and Materials

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Our trade deficit was 19.1% lower in April, as our exports increased while our imports decreased. The  Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for April, incorporating an annual revision, indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by a record $20.6 billion to $87.1 billion in April. From a March deficit that was revised from the originally reported $109.8 billion to $107.7 billion. A revision which should result in an upward revision of about 0.14 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP when the third

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Oil and Natural Gas Hit New Highs

14 days ago

RJS Focus on Fracking

Summary: Oil price sees highest weekly close in 13 years; natural gas price hit new 13 year high before falling back

Oil prices rose for a seventh consecutive week as record high fuel prices showed no signs of dampening demand. After rising 3.3% to $118.87 a barrel last week as China ended their lockdowns and the EU banned 90% of Russian oil imports, the contract price for US light sweet crude for July delivery jumped to over $120 a barrel in early trading Monday. After Saudi Aramco unexpectedly raised its selling prices for oil to Asia, sparking concerns over tightening global supplies, but faded in afternoon trading to settle 37 cents lower at $118.50 per barrel, as traders weighed risks of a potential US recession

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RJS; EIA US Oil Supply and Disposition Report

15 days ago

RJS: Focus on Fracking

Summary: US oil supplies at a 17½ year low with SPR at a 35 year low; refinery utilization highest since 2019, refinery throughput highest in 17 months; gasoline supplies at a 6 month low even with gasoline imports at a 46 week high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 3rd indicated that after a major drop in our oil exports and another big oil withdrawal from the SPR, we had oil left to add our stored commercial crude supplies for the 6th time in 10 weeks, and for the 21st time in the past 48 weeks, even after an increase in demand that could not be accounted for…our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 64,000

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2022 Social Security Trustees Report

18 days ago

Dale Coberly has written on Social Security numerous times over the years. The Northwest Plan which he developed was recognized by the SS Administration as being a potential solution to a shortfall in SS benefits. Dale briefly describes below how the solution might work in resolving the SS shortfall. Just a heads up. I am not sure if Dale will give a lengthier report.

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The 2022 Social Security Trustees Report was released a few days ago.  So far the response has been fairly muted, the usual suspects repeating the same misrepresentations they have been repeating with every Report over the last ten years or more.

The Facts in the Report which go undiscovered by those who don’t “do the math” are:

We have reached “short term financial

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April Construction Spending Up 2%, March Spend Revised

19 days ago

RJS: MarketWatch 666

Summary: Construction Spending Up 0.2% on Higher Prices in April, after March Spending was Revised 0.6% Higher

The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for April (pdf) estimated the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending was at a $1,744.8 billion annual rate during the month. Up 0.2 percent (±0.8 percent)* from the revised March annual spending rate of $1,740.6 billion, and 12.3 percent (±1.3 percent) above the estimated annualized level of construction spending in April of last year. The annualized March construction spending estimate was revised 0.5% higher, from $1,730.5 billion to $1,740.6 billion, while the annual rate of construction spending for February was revised 0.4% higher, from $1,728.6

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Supply and Distribution Data from EIA Pretty much the same

22 days ago

RJS: Focus on Fracking

Summary: US oil supplies at a 17 ½ year low with SPR at a 34½ year low; gasoline exports at a 3½ year high; 4 weeks of total oil + product exports at a record high and leads to total oil + products supply at a 13½ year low total oil + product  supplies at a 13½ year low after record exports..

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 27th indicated that even after another big oil withdrawal from the SPR, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 9 weeks, and for the 27th time in the past 47 weeks, mostly because of a big decrease in oil supplies that could not be accounted for.

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Another view of the student loan debt crisis

23 days ago

I have worked with Alan Collinge and Student Loan Justice Org. for at least a decade on student loan bankruptcy. This article was taken from the Tallahassee Democrat. This article has some numbers on who is impacted, which has been presented, and largely ignored here and other places.

United States Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) led their colleagues in reintroducing their bicameral resolution outlining a bold plan for President Biden to tackle the student loan debt crisis by using existing authority under the Higher Education Act to cancel up to $50,000 in student loan debt for Federal student loan borrowers. The resolution calls on the President to

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1st Qtr Revision, PI and Outlays, Durable Goods, and New Home Sales

28 days ago

RJS: MarketWatch 666

Summary: 1st quarter GDP revision; April’s personal income and outlays, durable goods, and new home sales

1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk at a 1.5% Rate

The Second Estimate of our 1st Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services shrunk at a 1.5% annual rate in the 1st quarter, revised from the 1.4% contraction rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as growth of inventories and of fixed investment were revised lower, more than offsetting an upward revision to the quarter’s growth of personal consumption expenditures . . . in current dollars, our first quarter GDP grew at a 6.51% annual rate, increasing from what would work out to be a

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Natural gas prices hit 13½ year high, Oil Exports at 26 Month High . . .

29 days ago

RJS: Focus on Fracking

Summary: natural gas prices hit 13½ year high after a six-fold increase in less than 2 years; US oil exports at a 26 month high even with SPR at a 34½ year low & US oil supplies at a 17 year low; total oil + products inventories at a new 13½ year low even with highest refinery utilization rate since 2019 & greatest refinery throughput in 11 months; rigs down first time in 31 weeks

Natural gas prices hit 13½ year high after a six-fold increase in less than 2 years

Oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive week as a European embargo of Russian oil began to seem more likely. After rising 2.5% to $113.23 a barrel last week as fuel prices hit record highs on tight supplies and pulled nearby crude prices higher, trading

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highest refinery utilization rate since 2019, greatest refinery throughput in 11 months

May 29, 2022

RJS: Focus on Fracking

Summary: US oil exports at a 26 month high with SPR at a 34½ year low & US oil supplies at a 17 year low; total oil + products inventories at a 13½ year low even with highest refinery utilization rate since 2019, greatest refinery  throughput in 11 months…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 20th indicated that after another jump in our oil exports, another oil withdrawal from the SPR, and even after an increase in oil supplies that could not be accounted for, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 3rd time in 8 weeks, and for the 26th time in the past 43 weeks. Our imports of crude

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March and April’s retail sales Revised Higher

May 24, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in April after March Sales Revised 0.9% Higher

Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.9% in April, after retail sales March were revised 0.9% higher, while sales for February were revised a bit lower . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for April (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled a record high $677.7 billion during the month, which was up by 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from revised March sales of $671.6 billion, and 8.2 percent (± 0.7 percent) above the adjusted sales of April of last year . . . March sales were originally reported at $665.7 billion, up 0.5% from February; they are now indicated to have risen

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SPR and Supplies Low, Total Oil and Products the Same

May 23, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 34 year low, US oil supplies at a 17 year low, total oil + products  inventories at a 13½ year low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 13th indicated that after a jump in our oil exports, another oil withdrawal from the SPR, and an increase in demand that could not be accounted for, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 2nd time in  7 weeks, and for the 25th time in the past 42 weeks. Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of  299,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,568,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 62,000 barrels

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SPR and Distillates Low, Global Oil Surplus in April, Natural Gas Rigs High

May 17, 2022

RJS: Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 21 year low, distillates supplies at a 17 year low; 300,000 bpd global oil surplus in April, despite loss of 1.2 million bpd from Russia & Kazakhstan; natural gas rigs at a 32 month high..  

OPEC’s Report on Global Oil for April

Thursday of this week saw the release of OPEC’s May Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for April, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation at a time when major cities in China were under restrictive Covid lockdowns, while at the same time exports of Russian oil were curtailed by sanctions imposed by the West . . . in the face of those circumstances, OPEC and aligned oil producers had

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April’s consumer and producer prices; March wholesale sales

May 17, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Producer Prices Rose 0.5% in April; Record Annual Increase of 16.3% for Final Demand for Goods

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% in April, as average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 1.3% while final demand for services was unchanged . . . that increase followed a revised 1.6% increase in March, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.4% and final demand for services rose 1.2%, a revised 1.1% increase in February, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.2% while margins of final services providers rose 0.5%, a revised 1.2% increase in January, when wholesale goods prices rose 1.6% and the price index for final demand for

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SPR at a 21-year low, Distillates at a 17 year low

May 16, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 21-year low, distillates supply at a 17-year low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending May 6th indicated that after another drop in our oil exports, another oil withdrawal from the SPR, and an increase in oil that could not be accounted for, we again had oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies, for the 10th time in 24 weeks and for the 19th time in the past forty-nine weeks . . . our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 62,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,269,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 397,000 barrels per day during the prior week,

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Nat Gas Up, SPR, Oil, Distillates, Product supply Low

May 10, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking

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Summary: Natural gas price hits 164 month high after doubling in 2 months; SPR at a 1058 week low, total US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high; natural gas rigs at a 31 month high..

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Natural gas prices hit 164 month high after doubling in 2 months

Oil prices rose for the third time in four weeks after the EU advanced a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil . . . after rising 2.6% to $104.69 a barrel last week as fears of lower supplies from Russia outweighed concerns about reduced demand from China, the contract price for US light sweet crude for June delivery opened

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Trade Deficit Rose on Imports of Industrial Supplies, Materials and Consumer Goods

May 9, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Trade Deficit Rose 22.3% to Record High in March on Higher Imports of Industrial Supplies & Materials and Consumer Goods

Our trade deficit was at another record high in March, 22.3% higher than February’s record, as both our imports and exports increased, but our imports increased by quite a bit more . . . the Commerce Department’s report on our international trade in goods and services for March indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $20.0 billion to $109.8 billion in March, from a February deficit that was revised from the originally reported record $89.2 billion to a record $89.8 billion . . . in rounded totals, the value of our March exports rose by $12.9 billion to

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SPR, oil, distillates, product Inventories low

May 8, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking,

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 1058 week low, US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 29th indicated that because of an increase in our oil imports, a decrease in our oil exports, a withdrawal from the SPR, and a slowdown in our refining, we again had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies, for the 9th time in 23 weeks and for the 18th time in the past forty-eight weeks, even after a big decrease in oil that could not be accounted

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Oil Buyback Replenishing SPR

May 6, 2022

RJS; Focus on Fracking

Oil Prices Top $111 As Biden’s SPR Buyback Plan Leaks —

The Biden Administration will purchase 60 million barrels of crude in Q3 (Yahoo) in an effort to replace volumes in the U.S. strategic petroleum for the first time in nearly 20 years, CNN reports, after authorizing a record release over six months.

Citing an unnamed Energy Department official, CNN said what is referred to as a “long-term buyback plan” for oil would be announced later on Thursday. Delivery of those first 60 million barrels, according to CNN, would be paid for with revenue received from sales of emergency oil, while the time frame is not specific beyond “future years”.

Oil jumped to $111.5 per barrel for Brent–the highest price since late March

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Construction Revisions Add 28 Basis Points to 1st Qtr GDP

May 6, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: Construction Spending Rose 0.1% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Higher

The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,730.5 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* above the revised annualized February estimate of $1,728.6 billion, and 11.7 percent (±1.0 percent) above the estimated annualized level of construction spending in March of last year . . . Census also reports that for the first three months of this year, construction spending has totaled $376.6 billion, 12.0 percent (±1.0 percent) above the $336.3 billion spent during the same three

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March New Home Sales Reported 8.6% Lower on Record Prices

May 3, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

Summary: New Home Sales Reported 8.6% Lower on Record Prices in March, after Prior Months Sales Revised Much Higher

The Census report on New Residential Sales for March (pdf) estimated that new single family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 homes during the month, which was 8.6 percent (±12.9 percent)* below the revised February annual sales rate of 835,000, and 12.6 percent (±11.3 percent) below the estimated annual rate that new homes were selling at during March of last year . . . the asterisk indicates that based on their small sampling, Census could not tell whether March new home sales rose or fell from home sales of February, with the figures in parenthesis representing the 90%

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GDP Shrunk, Record Trade Deficit, and Slower Growth of Inventories

May 2, 2022

RJS, MarketWatch 666

1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories

Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than offset by weaker investment in inventories and a record trade deficit, which subtracted over 3 percent from GDP . . . the Advance Estimate of 1st Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that the real output of goods and services produced in the US contracted at a 1.4% annual rate from the output of the 4th quarter of 2021, when our real output grew at a 6.9% real rate . . . in current dollars, our first quarter

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SPR, Oil, and Distillate Supplies Low

May 1, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + product inventories at an 13½ year low

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 22nd indicated that because of a drop in our oil exports and a big increase in oil that could not be accounted for, we managed to add oil to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 8th time in 22 weeks and for the 17th time in the past forty-seven weeks . . . our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 98,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,934,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average

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March Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record

April 26, 2022

RJS; MarketWatch 666

Summary: March industrial production: G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for March indicates industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago.

Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record in March

The Fed’s G17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March indicated that industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago . . . the industrial production index, with the benchmark set for average 2017 production to be equal to 100.0, was at

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SPR and Oil Supplies Low, same with Distillates and Products

April 25, 2022

RJS, Focus on Fracking

Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low after record jump in exports; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + products inventories at an 8 year low; a total oil + products exports at a record high

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 15th indicated that because of a record increase in our oil exports, we had to withdraw oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 14th time in 21 weeks and for the 30th time in the past forty-six weeks. Our  imports of crude oil fell by an average of 159,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,837,000 barrels per

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