Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August,

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.88 million in August, down 1.8% from July’s preliminary pace and down 3.7% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a slightly larger YOY % decline, as there was one fewer business day this August compared to last August.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the existing single-family home sales price last month was up 3.5% from

Robert’s proposal as to what should be in presidential candidate Kamal Harris’s future goals for the nation and its citizens. They are good targets. The issue being whether she can convince a Congress these are worthy to pursue regardless of politics.

The key to what should be (and hopefully will be) Kamalanomics

by Robert Reich

Harris’s family-centered policies sold as $6,000 for newborns, a tax credit that will help people with children decide for themselves whether to work or stay at home. Additionally, universal affordable childcare which is useful and important to working mothers.

The rub? Many young men and women simply can’t afford to form families in the first place. As Harold Meyerson notes in The American Prospect, Harris’s

By Rafael Nam

NPR

The American dollar has been soaring this year relative to most currencies in the world. That’s providing a lot of benefits to Americans — but it’s also creating a lot of pain.

The strong dollar brings a number of advantages. It reinforces America’s economic dominance and it helps reduce inflation by making imports cheaper.

But a rising dollar doesn’t lift all boats. Some exporters have been hit as the stronger domestic currency makes them less competitive in overseas markets, while also creating economic headaches around the world.

Here are three things to know about the dollar – and its rally this year.

What’s behind the strong dollar — and will it last?

A solid dollar signifies a strong economy. And the U.S.

Kind of a rambling story here. What is going on? Investors are stripping the companies of their resources leaving bare bones so to speak. If you attempt to hold the prime investor responsible, the judges get in the way the same as we see SCOTUS Chief John Roberts becoming more involved and District Judge Cannon doing so under advisement of Justice Thomas.

A report on the taking over of a chain of hospitals by private investors. The antagonist being private investor Ralph who does not even show for a Senate hearing. He believes they can not touch him. Two posts back I talked about a state senator who tells a police officer she is exempt from a ticket. Then there is former president Trump, who claims similar, It appears Trump has Chief Justice John

By Bill McBride

Calculated Risk Newsletter

Intro: Former Angry Bear writer Bill McBribe taking up the issues of Mortgage Delinquency, Foreclosures, and Real Estate Owned (REO) foreclosed housing. The value of which decreased in the second quarter to (what Bill calls) a historically low total. Read on.

We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

Last week, CoreLogic reported on homeowner equity: CoreLogic: US Homeowners See Equity Gains Continue to Climb, but at a Slower Pace in Q2

The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages

I spent much time over my 50 years working in foreign countries. I needed something to do so I would sight see on weekends and in the early evenings. The Germans gave me a car so I would take off to visit castles, etc. Ended up in Czech Republic, off to Prague on a Sunday. The Germans paid for my gasoline and meals as they sent me to those countries. Cut over to Strausberg France, Zurich.

The same in China, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia.

I did work my butt off and I took time off as compensation of not being home. The following post is about Llyod traveling by train in New Zealand.

Riding the Northern Explorer: This is how to run a railroad

by Lloyd Alter

Carbon Upfront!

So I am in New Zealand, writing this in the last few

The U.S. economy has been growing faster than military spending, so defense spending as a share of GDP has been decreasing. While the $dollars spent are increasing, the percentage of GDP Defense Spending takes up has been decreasing since 1952. Perhaps a better question is do we really need to spend this much on Defense?

Perhaps wiser and defined expenditures may be in order?

U.S. Defense Spending in Historical and International Context

Econofact

The Issue:

The United States Department of Defense has requested nearly $850 billion for fiscal year 2025. This represents about 3% of national income and almost half of all federal discretionary budget outlays. What is this money spent on? While there had been talk in the past of a peace

By Tara Watson Williams College

EconoFact

“Relative to the late Bush and early Obama eras, the Trump administration removed a modest number of immigrants from the nation’s interior.” One would not think such was true. Apparently and as in other instances, the numbers say differently. Keep in mind this report is from 2021. It does give detail on the differences between Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Immigrant Deportations During the Trump Administration

The Issue

Immigration was a recurring theme during Tuesday’s presidential debate. The discussion occasionally focused on policy concerns such as funding for law enforcement at the southern border. They frequently veered toward more sensational topics.

This does not make sense.

Between Fund payouts and Social Security, we were well below $100,000. After deductions and expenses (mortgage, property tax, donations, etc.) our income taxes were very small. We set a side 7% of our SS for taxes and we had plenty left over. We are not the poorest and definitely not the richest. If we follow Trumps suggestion, we will be favoring the very rich getting Social Security. The ones who can afford to pay.

Trump’s Tax-Cut Proposal Shakes Up Social Security Debate – WSJ

Donald Trump’s plan to repeal income taxes on Social Security benefits would eliminate an unpopular levy, make it easier for older people to keep working, and leave a big hole in the program’s finances. 

At $1.5 trillion over a decade,

When you read this, pay attention to who is funding who for the presidency. It is surprising and it is not surprising. We have heard this person who longs to be a president again and people still support this person? The energy companies backing are profit and control mongers. They see an opportunity and they are preparing for when and if Trump becomes President.

Under a President Kamala Harris, they would still be profitable. They would also be accountable which they do not want. They are willing to sacrifice the country and its citizens for this for the greater freedom under a Trump presidency.

Many of these companies already have the executive orders written for when Trump takes office..

~~~~~~~

The United States is producing more

Teacher pay rises in 2023

by Sylvia Allegretto

Economic Policy Institute

Just offering up a portion of an EPI report on Teacher’s Earnings

Public school teachers attaining a bachelor’s degree to teach in the U.S. do not make similar wages as what other similarly degreed people in other fields. There is a pay gap between the disciplines and gender. The EPI report compares the pay of public-school teachers with the pay of college graduates working in other professions. The author is using BLS data to back their findings. This data is a the basis for Teacher pay rises in 2023.

Weekly Wage Trends

Shown in Figure A; Inflation-adjusted teacher wages were relatively flat from 1996 through 2021. This indicates teacher wages, on average,

By Dean Baker

CEPR

The effort to bring back manufacturing jobs has been a major theme in the 2024 election. Both parties say they consider this a high priority for the next administration. However, there is a notable difference in that the Biden-Harris administration has actively supported an increase in unionization, while the Republicans have indicated, at best, neutrality if not outright hostility towards unions.

This distinction is important in the context of manufacturing jobs. Many people seem to assume that manufacturing jobs are automatically good jobs, paying more than non manufacturing jobs.

While that was true four decades ago, before the massive job loss of manufacturing jobs due to trade, it is not clear this is still the

USPS Shuts Out Wyomingites Who Want To Comment On Rural Delivery Plan

People trying to sign up to comment on the latest U.S. Postal Service proposal that would impact rural delivery in much of Wyoming are finding themselves shut out after a barely publicized deadline to register for Thursday’s virtual meeting passed.

The U.S. Postal Service had announced it won’t hold a second in-person forum for people to comment on its latest plan to cut $3 billion in costs, in part by sacrificing rural mail delivery.

“There will be one virtual conference,” USPS spokeswoman Alexandra (Ali) Reams told Cowboy State Daily on Wednesday. “Consistent with our notice on usps.com, registration closed at noon on Sept. 3.”

It was not clear exactly which notice

Labor market remains strong. Even so, the Fed should cut rates in September (EPI)

Two things are true right now for the U.S. economy: 

The labor market is extraordinarily strong when judged by any historical benchmark. 
The Federal Reserve is behind the curve in cutting interest rates and should start cutting rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. To aim for something like a federal funds rate that is at least two percentage points lower by mid-2025. 
These might strike some as being in tension, normally we want the Fed to cut interest rates to stimulate a weak economy. Why then, if the labor market is quite strong, do we need them to cut?  

Simply put, the interest rates the Fed controls are now at levels that

This is a good update as done by Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson at Letters from an American. As Prof. Heather writes, Trump is denying the reality of his failure(s) during the debate, He took the bait VP Kamala Harris laid out during the debate hook, sinker, line, and the pole. It was brutal to watch. And funny as Trump got a well-deserved comeuppance.

As I said Trump is in denial that he lost. Any offer for another debate with Harris is being pushed aside by Trump claiming he won the debate so why do it again?

Major event for Kamala Harris? Taylor Swift’s support for Kamala Harris. Apparently, many people registered to vote as a result. Read on . . .

~~~~~~~

Today, Trump backed out of another debate with Vice President Kamala Harris. He

An update on what is happening here is Arizona. There is more than just TSMC building in the Phoenix area. Intel has a couple of plants under construction also.

TSMC has good news as it looks to make chips in the U.S.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s production trials in Arizona are yielding results similar to its factories in Taiwan.

Trial production yields at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s factory in Arizona are reportedly similar to those in Taiwan, as it anticipates billions in funding.

The chipmaker’s yield rate, or the amount of functional chips it can produce per manufacturing process, at its first factory in Phoenix is similar to yield rates at comparable factories in Taiwan, Bloomberg reported, citing an

R.j. sigmund‘s notes on Covid Metrics

It appears all US Covid metrics are now heading down except for deaths, but we can expect deaths to head lower in a week or two as well, as the reduced numbers of those who are newly infected work through the health care system…among the CDC’s “early indicators” “test positivity”, or the percentage of tests for Covid that were positive, fell to 16.3% during the week ending August 31st, after test positivity  for the week ending August 24th was revised down to 16.7% from the 17.0% reported a week ago . . . at the same time, Covid cases accounted for 2.3% of hospital emergency room patients during the week ending August 31st, down from a unrevised 2.5% of emergency patients during the week ending August 24th;

A federal judge in Louisiana declares a state can not use race as a reason to reject a project which may cause pollution. Stating “’Pollution does not discriminate,’ and that if a regulating authority had to consider race in its enforcement decision making, it will ‘indeed participate in racism.’”

The new ruling bars Louisiana from considering whether to permit industrial facilities in communities already facing a disparate impact from pollution.

Louisiana federal court permanently blocks civil rights protections for Black communities’ statewide.

by Terry L. Jones

flood light news

The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana this week issued a permanent injunction that prevents the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

A relatively long piece on Carbon Capture by Vox. It does touch on every topic concerning capture and storage.

Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions

by Amy Westervelt

Vox

This spring, Democrats wrapped up a nearly three-year investigation into the fossil fuel industry’s role in climate disinformation and asked the Department of Justice to pick up where they left off. In House and Senate Democrats’ final report and hearing, investigators concluded that major oil companies had not only misled the public on climate change for decades, but also were continuing to misinform them about the industry’s preferred climate “solutions”— particularly biofuels and carbon capture.

Sen.

This is a brief introduction to the housing state of affairs in Arizona. It is building up quickly. Builders, declarants, and corporate HOAs have a great swath of control over what is occurring. None of which has controlling input from residents. What I am also seeing in the Planning and Zoning Commissions is ignorance on how these developments should be dealt with regard to lot sizes, roads, etc. They are more of a rubber stamp. These communities are being built with little regard for supporting infrastructure.

I also wonder if water resources will sustain such growth. As Angry Bear presented here: “Water in Arizona is an Important Resource. Much of Its Use is by Out of State Corporations, Angry Bear,” I wonder how much we are drawing out of the

Indeed, everything Postmaster DeJoy has done has slowed the USPS even more . . .

USPS plans rural slowdown after election to cut costs, The Washington Post (archive.ph)

Top U.S. Postal Service officials are considering plans to allow slower mail delivery in the coming months for long-distance and rural service to cut costs at the financially troubled agency — but not until after the election.

The changes would give customers within 50 miles of the Postal Service’s largest processing facilities faster delivery service, which accounts for the vast majority of mail and packages, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy told The Washington Post. But the agency cannot afford to maintain the same model for deliveries into far-flung areas, he said. That

Much of this is the result of commercial healthcare gaming the system with pricing. Medicare Advantage can not compete head-to-head with Traditional Medicare much less the VA. VA sent me to Barrows (Arizona) for an issue with my back and right leg. I was going numb and it was painful to walk.

So to make up for just giving me epidural shots in my spine (surgeon’s suggestions), they decide to work on my blood pressure, cholesterol, and weight. They wanted another comprehensive blood test even though I had one two months earlier. Said no to it all. My cholesterol and blood pressure is far better than average. I dropped 24 pounds and still decreasing. The word for all of this is “Coding” the patient so Medicare and the VA pays more for it. I still

By Garry George

Audubon

The goal of conservation is to protect biodiversity and prevent species from disappearing. We often associate this work with the maintenance of natural areas, but Audubon’s science shows that bird populations are feeling impacts of climate change even in protected places like wildlife refuges. As just one example, Burrowing Owls are projected to lose 14% of their current range if the average global temperature increases by 3 degrees Celsius. Unless we can reduce pollution and slow the rate of warming, many bird species will face extinction due to factors like range loss and sea level rise.  

That’s why climate action is conservation and why clean energy is key to saving billions of birds. Rooftop solar and microgrids

I did some rewriting on this particular commentary and added two charts from another commentary (at the bottom). The point being to give graphical depiction of the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and who it benefited the most. You can see (for whatever reason) why the Republican Party is pushing for this and taking it from Medicaid. You can also wonder why less wealthy Republicans making far less than the major beneficiaries are not up in arms. The charts are very telling amongst Park’s verbiage.

GOP Pushes to Make Trump Tax Cuts Permanent Makes Medicaid Top Target for Draconian Cuts.

by Edwin Park

Center For Children and Families,

Edwin Park has been writing about the many conservative and Congressional Republican plans and

Interesting and brief piece by Dean Baker of CEPR in relation to price gouging.

There continues to be a debate about the extent to which “price-gouging” or “greedflation” has been responsible for the rise in prices since the pandemic. We can debate the extent to which companies were able to take advantage of monopoly power during the pandemic. Whatever the cause, it is clear the profit share of corporate income has risen from before the pandemic (shown in the graph below).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the four quarters before the pandemic, the profit share averaged 22.7 percent of the net income generated in the corporate sector.[1] It rose to 26.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022. Since then, it fallen back somewhat to

If this is going to be a close election between trump and Kamala Harris, I will be surprised, Trump just keeps babbling away with his commentaries. Taken from the reports I have read, the audience coming out to hear him speak, have been leaving early. The more desperate trump gets, the more he babbles.

It will be interesting to see who shows up for the debate. The babbler or a thinking (if such can be done) trump.

Enoy the read.

September 7, 2024

by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson

Letters from an American

By rights, tonight’s post should be a picture, but Trump’s behavior today merits a marker because it feels like a dramatic escalation of the themes we’ve seen for years. Please feel free to ignore—as I often say, I am trying to leave

The one element we lack at Angry Bear is regular woman commenters and/or a woman writer. I have searched and asked. Explained it does take time and you are exposed to silly or rude comments. It is a different perspective coming from women. A perspective I can not present.

Angry Bear has Annie’s permission to present her words at Angry Bear. This is a good commentary by Annie as taken from her site “annieasksyou.”

Looking Toward Tuesday’s “Debate” Between the Prosecutor and the Felonious Traitor

by Annie

annie asks you . . .

In my title for this post, “Looking Toward” does not mean “Looking Forward to.”

I wish VP Harris did not have to face Trump, inevitably elevating him by her presence. (There’s still a chance he’ll invent a

It is an accurate rant and depicts what I see on the highway.

I see much of this in Arizona where we live today. An explosion of oversized vehicles which typically do not carry anything but people. As one planning commissioner said to the builders, sixty percent of the vehicles being driven in southern Arizona are pickups. The implication here was driveways must be long enough to accommodate them so they do not block a sidewalk. And then, do the behemoths fit in the garage and allow for doors to be opened without banging a wall or the other vehicle next to it.

The dynamics of driving a large vehicle differ greatly from a standard automobile. They use more fuel, take longer time and more distance to stop, cause more wear on the roads, take up

This report by Employ America was written the day before the Unemployment report was released on the 6th. There is another link to a report on Indeed at the end of this report. It too makes for an interesting tead.

The good news from the August jobs report is the labor market is not weakening as quickly as July’s shaky report would have you believe. The bad news is the labor market’s strength is slowly fading. Time is a-wasting for the Fed to take action. Employ America

Sufficient Conditions (Exist) For Frontloading Interest Rate Cuts

We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate is 4.2% or above, or (2) the

Been lucky to have Andrew Sprung of xpostfactoid writing on the topic of perpetrators conceiving, executing, and expanding their carefully planned scheme of large-scale unauthorized plan-switching amongst ACA healthcare insurance subscribers. In the end, people switched over to other plans get lesser healthcare insurance than what they had signed up for initially with a different plan. The plan switch generates a bonus for the person selling a plan and making the switch. Fraud would be the descriptor for this.

TrueCoverage and Enhance Health were using “leads” developed by Minerva Marketing using online ads misrepresenting ACA premium subsidies as cash benefits. And of course, people see the word money go with the flow thinking they will come away