[unable to retrieve full-text content]by Explainer Migration Policy Institute Immigrants in the United States commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born population, not-with-standing the assertion by critics that immigration is linked to higher rates of criminal activity. This reality of reduced criminality, which holds across immigrant groups including unauthorized immigrants, has been demonstrated through research as well as […]
The post Immigrants and Crime in the United States appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The last 4 years of Border Encounters appears to be more than what the Trump Administration experienced. Is this a bad thing? Why did it occur? Has there been more crime? Encounter data includes U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible, and Title 42 Expulsion. Demographics for […]
The post Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible, and Title 42 Expulsions appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There is considerable doubt about Richard Glossip’s guilt for a brutal 1997 murder in Oklahoma City, for which he has twice been sentenced to death. It also appears unquestionable that he has never gotten a fair trial.  Glossip’s case is now before the U.S. Supreme Court, where his fate may actually be determined by the incoherence of the court’s recusal […]
The post And It Makes No Difference Whether the Needed Fifth Vote is Missing Because . . . appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]by Bill McBride Calculated Risk News Letter Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States:  How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis U.S. housing costs are out of control. The median home for sale was rarely more than four times […]
The post A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]You are going to hear a lot from Vance saying, “Trump would, Trump says, Trump did, etc. Vance has little foundation to support his commentary. It will always be they said and not I believe or say . . . That is the Republican version of a vice president. Feet made of sand . . […]
The post Vance . . . Trump administration would end funding to Planned Parenthood appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]What the Economists say Not likely. However it is a good economic and political ploy to play on voters. And Trump plays it well to stir up voters. The tariffs Trump proposes will hurt far more US citizens economically than immigrants coming to America legally or illegally. Trump is betting he can play on people’s […]
The post Are immigrants taking jobs from ‘native’ U.S. workers?  appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Eric Kramer’s Observation in his Post: “Pennsylvania canvassing report.” Eric: For those of you who are Harris supporters and looking for good news, one of my co-canvassers pointed out that we have seen no Trump canvassers and little evidence of past Trump canvass efforts (not much Trump literature on porches).  And we’ve been in very […]
The post Canvassing and the Election appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Initiative and Program Updates that have come into being in 2024 and also 2025 under the Biden Administration impacting Elderly Economics. The reporting is by AARP. Some of those who have passed into history that caught my eye too. Federal Income Tax Brackets for 2025 In the U.S. tax system, income tax rates are graduated, […]
The post Taxes, Postage, and Medicare Updates appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser, like me, is an Old School blogger, and like me, is focused on forecasting.  Yesterday he wrote a piece about supplementing the yield curve with a second condition, the private nonfinancial debt service ratio. Basically, what percent of income is needed to service debt. Doing […]
The post Why has the inverted yield curve failed? A fundamentals-based explanation appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]“There is a stubbornness about me that never can bear to be frightened at the will of others. My courage always rises at every attempt to intimidate me.” Jane Austen, Pride and Prejudice Robert Reich speaks out about the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times failure to endorse a candidate for president. Both stop […]
The post Cowardice and intimidation at The Washington Post and L.A. Times appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Yep! I think the people are correct though about the inflationary actions of Biden during the PANDEMIC when the nation shut down and people were not working. The administration should not have doled out money in multiple Economic Stimulus packages during the pandemic. All those deficit spending and inflation . . . oh my! We […]
The post Economic Stimulus Over the Last Four Years and the Results of It appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Infidel’s commentary as taken from his blog Infidel753 Last week I posted on why the country needs a Democratic landslide.  This post is about the reasons why I think it’s most likely there will actually be one.  Those reasons why are, of course, the meat of the matter — anybody can claim to believe something, but the important […]
The post Why I anticipate a blue wave appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]This is not the complete report which can be found here: Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good. The report questions our present knowledge of water how it is viewed and its usage. I will let the authors explain. The Problem Humanity Has Created Humanity has thrown the global water cycle off balance […]
The post A Brief on the Economics of Water Usage appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]He wanted generals like Hitler’s, a leader he sometimes praised. “Do you really believe you’re not loyal to me?” Trump asked then–chief of staff General John Kelly. Kelly was clear: “I’m certainly part of the administration, but my ultimate loyalty is to the rule of law.” October 22, 2024 – by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson […]
The post Shifting the burden of supporting the country from the wealthy to average Americans appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Getting the vote out has been a big factor in voting. Much of voting today is done via mail. The U.S. Postal Services plays a large role in making sure votes are delivered on time. The graph below is from the September 30, 2024 review of the USPS performance resulting from the America Plan. A […]
The post U.S. Postal Service’s Delivering for America Plan appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]This is interesting as the fight is over wetlands which is something we were battling about in Michigan too. Builders like to build close to them or fill in parts of it to expand their development. We did manage to establish 75-foot setbacks to houses so as to protect the wetland. The subdivision we lived […]
The post Policy Wins in 2024 for Wetland Protection appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The question here is whether primary care can be commercialized more so than what it has been to date? Will profitability deliver a better healthcare model? Who will it serve? Can it survive without large healthcare institutions and hospitals supporting it? It might given where its location and the costs of utilizing it. Can Primary […]
The post Can Retail Business Implement Primary Healthcare? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]SCOTUS: Actually, Presidents Are Kings – by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse One of the last lines in Joyce Vance commentary at Civil Discourse is the title I used for this lengthy (and it is) Post of hers. Why is it the men on SCOTUS are a bunch of cowards when it comes to Trump? What […]
The post The only force holding Trump accountable for trying to interfere in the last election is the voters in the up coming one appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Many of you have noticed unwanted occurrences at Angry Bear. We have had four occurrences of down time. I am not sure why this is happening. Each time, Joel and I have alerted our present Server staff without being demanding or obnoxious. The latter serves no purpose. We need their help while we transition to […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]Joyce Vance @ Civil Discourse This is not going to be one of those ho-hum, just like any other week kind of weeks. Over the weekend, Donald Trump talked about the size of Arnold Palmer’s penis and called Kamala Harris a “shit vice president” while an adoring crowd cheered. Harris’ response? She told MSNBC’s Al Sharpton, “the American people deserve so […]
The post The Week Ahead appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There is a story here somewhere, I have to look at it a bit closer in what Medicare is doing. As you can see expenditures in the US are double or more than what occurs in other countries. Yet, the US life expectancy is less than other countries. It appears there is a cut which […]
The post Medicare Doctor Payment System is Not Keeping Up with Inflation appeared first on Angry Bear.

– by Bill McBride

Calculated Risk Newsletter

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).

Active Inventory in September

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing

The message can not get any clearer than what is being stated by CVS management. The discussion now being had is things will be better in 2025. Kind of doubtful as MedPac zeroes in on Medicare Advantage plans. I suspect more will be done to rein in MA plans. Read on and also the article.

“Brown echoed Pearl, noting that a lot of CVS’ challenges come from Medicare Advantage, which touches Aetna, Oak Street Health and Caremark. In 2024, CVS made a strategic decision to focus on adding more seniors into its Medicare Advantage product. However, more people are utilizing healthcare services than the company anticipated. Stating . . .

“As the utilization went up, the profit margins went down. The goal of a Medicare Advantage program is to not only get

Kind of have to jump around on this one. Both commentaries by Kareem are good. I just happen to like the Nationalism one better.

Christian Nationalism is Here & People Can Now Communicate in Dreams (Really!) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

US elections 2024, The Guardian

SUMMARY: Kamala Harris’s economic policies proved far more popular than Donald Trump’s plans in a blind test of their proposals.

Four of the top five most popular proposals were from the Democratic candidate’s campaign, according to a new Harris Poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian.

The poll showed strong optimism from Democrats about Harris’s presidential candidacy but – once again – highlighted pessimism around the US economy from both sides of the aisle.

Americans

– by Sara B. Heller and Max Kapustin

Econofact, November 2022

Let me be clear on the topic before you read the article. The full text is: “In a research  paper with colleagues, we find that it is possible by using data such as arrest and victimization records that cities already collect, to accurately identify specific people at high risk of being shot without introducing the kinds of racial bias that are of most concern in algorithmic prediction. For example, a machine learning algorithm trained on such data in Chicago can identify 500 people from which ~13 percent of whom go on to be shot within 18 months.

I find the message stunning.

The Issue:

In 2020, almost 25,000 people were murdered in the U.S. Nearly 80% of them were with

Decoding Medicare Advantage

by Andrew Sprung

xpostfactoid

Can STAT’s exposure of UHC’s exhortations to goose Medicare Advantage enrollees’ risk scores spur action to reduce MA overpayment?

Load these Codes

It is beyond reasonable doubt that the federal government’s payments to Medicare Advantage plans are grossly inflated by the plans’ gaming of the program’s risk adjustment system, designed to deter plans from cherry-picking health enrollees. The risk adjustment program pays plans more for enrollees with higher “risk scores,” calculated on the basis of enrollees’ diagnosed medical conditions. Plans have various means of inflating enrollees’ risk scores — most notoriously, home risk assessments and chart reviews — a retroactive

– by R.J. Sigmund

Most of the demographic indicators of this summer’s Covid wave continued to recede rapidly in this week’s reports, and wastewater levels of the virus, the most definitive indicator of infections, have fallen to “low.” Among the CDC’s “early indicators” “test positivity”, or the percentage of tests for Covid that were positive, fell to 7.7% during the week ending October 5th, down from 9.5% positive during the week ending September 28th, which had not been reported a week ago,

Test positivity was last reported at 11.6% during the week ending September 21st, down from 13.4% during the week ending September 14th, so we’ve had a significant decrease in positive tests. Mean while, Covid cases accounted for 0.8% of hospital

Current Release October 17, 2024

Market Groups

The major market groups posted mixed results in September. Among consumer goods, the production of durables decreased 0.7 percent. In contrast, the index for nondurables increased 0.5 percent, boosted by a 1.7 percent increase in energy goods. The output of business equipment declined 3.5 percent in September, weighed down by a sharp drop of 14.2 percent in the production of transit equipment largely due to the work stoppage in civilian aircraft. Business supplies posted a gain in September, while the index of construction supplies edged down. The production of non-energy materials edged down 0.1 percent in September, as a 0.3 percent decline in the durable non-energy component more than offset a

By Mark Joseph Stern

Not going to say too much as I said my piece here; “Looks Like SCOTUS May Hold for the US on “Ghost” Guns, Angry Bear by Amy Howe at SCOTUS Blog. To sum it up, there is no defense for bullet spewing weapons not having serial numbers.

Slate Jurisprudence

Lawyers with bad arguments in defense of terrible causes are on a winning streak at this Supreme Court. The conservative supermajority often seems committed to laundering feeble and nutty arguments into plausible-sounding law on behalf of right-wing litigants. It was therefore more gratifying than it should have been on Tuesday to hear the court regain its sanity, if only temporarily, to smack down the ghost gun industry’s bid for resurrection. A clear majority of the

A conversation on providing for disability.

The right to work as an equal also extends to the disabled. Contingencies are made for the disabled and is a key factor in having the ability to provide for themselves. Doors that open with the touch of a button. Wheelchair accommodations to go up a step or a set of stairs. Access to the use of bathrooms. Adequate desks and chairs.

In which case if not available, society takes away the ability of the disabled to secure economic equality with those without disabilities. And such falls back on society to provide food and shelter as well as other means to live as people.

Disability justice is key to the pursuit of economic equality; the latter requires commitment to the former. There has to be a