Former Bear Bill McBride at Calculated Risk is sharing another of his excellent commentaries. This time his focus is on rising homeowner insurance costs. Timely for sure. Helene has gone through the southern states and another hurricane is coming. Insurance costs were up then and will more-than-likely increase again for states bordering the Atlantic. I have noticed our HO Insurance taking a jump also.

CalculatedRisk Newsletter

by Bill McBride

Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Average Payment Hits All-Time High; Spiking Insurance Costs Rising at 3X the Rate of Principal, Interest, and Taxes

The average monthly payment (principal, interest, taxes and insurance, or PITI) among active mortgages hit a record $2,070 in August; up $140

Economist David Zetland at The one-handed economist blog offers up another interesting book review detailing life in Ukraine during the nineties.

David Zetland, The One Arm Economist’s Book Review: “Death and the Penguin“

This 1996 novel by Andrei Kurkov tells the story of a failing writer who suddenly finds himself with a full-time job writing obituaries. He also has a penguin, Misha, who he “rescues” from Kyiv’s Zoo when they run out of money to feed their animals.

The book’s most interesting “contribution” is its description of the weirdnesses of 1990s Ukraine. It was hard for anyone to count on anything, as the Soviet world turned upside down.

You’d have to read it, but here are some characteristic passages:

“Am I ill?” he

Taken from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2024 and Annual Update

Partial Report: Real gross domestic product (GDP) is increasing at an annual rate of 3.0 percent as shown in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1). This is according to the “third” estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent (a revised report).

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.0 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private

A history lesson of what not to do and yet may still come to pass.

October 5th, 2024

by Prof. Heather Cox – Richardson

Letters from an American

More politics rather than economics. Some of it does fit. The concept is political for an upcoming election.

William McKinley is having a moment (which I confess is a sentence I never expected to write). 

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is elevating McKinley, a representative from Ohio from 1877 to 1891 and president from 1897 to 1901, to justify his plan to impose new high tariffs. 

Trump’s call for tariffs is not an economic plan; it is a worldview. Trump claims foreign countries pay tariff duties and thus putting new tariffs of 20% on all imports, and as much as 60% on

By Lloyd Alter

Carbon Upfront

Scope 4 emissions help me justify my flight to New Zealand and compensate for its carbon footprint.

I apologize for my posts not showing up at the usual times; I got back from Australia and New Zealand with a crushing jet lag that I still haven’t recovered from, with a cold thrown in as well. I hope to be back to my usual programming shortly.

Everyone is talking about “Scope 4” and “avoided emissions” these days. Joel Mackower of Trellis (formerly GreenBiz, it is sad that everyone is running from “green”) defines them:

In simple terms, Scope 4 refers to greenhouse gases never emitted due to a product’s cleaner production or attributes. Or, more precisely, “the difference in total lifecycle GHG emissions

R. J. Sigmund

September 29, 2024

The major Covid demographic metrics we track continued to trend lower this past week, but we have a new recombinant mutant out there that is multiplying quite rapidly and is forecast to become the dominant strain, probably just in time for the annual winter holidays infection wave.

Among the CDC’s “early indicators” “test positivity”, or the percentage of tests for Covid that were positive, fell to 11.6% during the week ending September 21st, down from 13.4% positive during the week ending September 14th, which had not been reported a week ago, test positivity was last reported at 14.9% during the week ending September 7th. Meanwhile, Covid cases accounted for 1.4% of hospital emergency room patients during

Interesting read as written by Attorney Joyce Vance.

by Joyce Vance

Civil Discourse

On Wednesday, Judge Tanya Chutkan unsealed a redacted version of Jack Smith’s immunity motion. Now we have a clear view of what Smith believes is still on the table after the Supreme Court’s decision. The short version: just about everything. Smith acknowledges that the Court took Trump’s interactions with DOJ officials out of the case, but he argues that everything else is either private conduct that is fair game or official conduct that he can overcome the presumption of immunity for by demonstrating prosecution won’t harm the presidency—as if it’s not Trump who’s harming the presidency. Smith is going to make the courts tell him no, if they are of a mind

Somewhere, there is a correlation between the two . . .

The Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico dockworker strikes are over.

The strike by tens of thousands of dockworkers on the East and Gulf coasts has been called off, after the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, representing ocean carriers and port operators, reached a tentative agreement on wages.

The two sides also agreed to extend the existing contract until Jan. 15, 2025. In the meantime, they will return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues, including the union’s demand on a ban on all automation at the ports.

The International Longshoremen’s Association had been seeking $5-an-hour raises in each of the next six years,

I am not sure I would call this similar to Chicago politics. Which is something I lived with or observed for a number of years. It is a bit of crooked mixed with a bit of silly. Read on . . .

Low move by high court may nullify Arizona votes on Make Elections Fair Act, AZCentral

The Make Elections Fair Act would flush Arizona’s partisan primary election system down the toilet. It will be on the ballot in November.

And we all will vote on it.

And our votes … may not get counted.

The Arizona Supreme Court is doing something that no other court in Arizona has done before. Something nullifying the votes of millions of Arizona citizens. The court would also negate the work of those who collected the 550,000 signatures to put the initiative

Largely speaking direct labor is not the issue of costs have I have presented in another post. It is the overhead such as healthcare insurance which can better handled in another manner. Inflation grows and minimum wage income is stagnant.

Studies have found little or no job loss due to Minimum Wage Laws, Economic Policy Institute

There is always political heat around minimum wage increases, largely driven by concerns about job losses. The story goes, after a minimum wage increase many employers will not be able to afford to pay their workers the new higher minimum wage. They will then shrink their payrolls. If these job losses are large enough, they could even swamp the higher wages and lead to lower overall wage income for the entire group of

As Category 4 Hurricane Helene approached the Florida Panhandle, a number of Republican senators and representatives voted against supplementing disaster relief in a government funding extension which was passed by both houses of Congress.

Many of the Republican lawmakers voted against the provision of additional necessary funding to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) represent states that were hit particularly hard by Hurricane Helene.

Obviously not the full list below. More Details and Sources Below.

Partial list of Republicans Who Voted Against FEMA Relief Before Helene Battered Their Home States, MSN

North Carolina:

Representative Dan Bishop, NC 8th District

Senator Ted Budd

South Carolina:

Representative Jeff

Another take on J.D,’s and Tim’s debate last night. Tim came off the line rather slow last night. This is like the gearing in some automobiles where you are slow off the line and gain greater speed as you go along. It was pretty clear Tim owned J.D. at the end.

Will it change votes, probably not. “A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”

Joyce Vance at Civil Discourse. Walz versus Vance

Governor Walz seemed nervous starting out but closed strong. He scored points when J.D. Vance refused to disavow family separation and pretended that his ticket would support shaking hands and “coming back together” if they lost the election. But Vance was slick, rehearsed and had a good presentation. He had obviously been coached to

In addition to what you will hopefully read below. Repubs and Dems went to court and presented their reasoning for and against new laws allowing for a “reasonable inquiry” to be conducted before election certification and gives election workers the ability to “to examine all election related documentation created during the conduct of elections.”  You can surmise who was for and against this..

New Georgia Law Spurs Bogus Challenges to Voter Eligibility

by Andrew Garber

Brennan Center for Justice

A new law went into effect in Georgia this month that makes it easier for people to attempt to kick their neighbors off the rolls through voter challenges. Georgia already made voter challenges far too easy. Now, voters in the state face increased

Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate.

by Bill McBride

@ Calculated Risk

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.11% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in August, down from up 4.5% YoY in July.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this

I did not know this. In Phoenix, etc. The subject of this commentary, “Invitation Homes” has approximately 7300 available homes for rent at prices which would equal a mortgage payment, property taxes, and the required homeowner’s insurance. I am sitting in the middle of all of this in AZ.

The only reason I can think of for not buying is poor credit, bankruptcy, no funds to pay for a realtor, closing, etc. Even so, why would you mess with rental properties? Miscellaneous fees . . .

FTC Takes Action Against Invitation Homes for Deceiving Renters, Charging Junk Fees, Withholding Security Deposits, and Employing Unfair Eviction Practices, Federal Trade Commission

Proposed settlement would require the rental property company “Invitation Homes”

Author Sharon Lerner at ProPublica featured at MedPage Today

AB: Bit of a rewrite to shorten this up for readers at Angry Bear. Just when you think agencies and the management team will do the right thing, they do not. Lower echelon scientists to make public the issues with the findings that were not theirs and made public as theirs.

A watchdog’ ‘s findings of health harms from chemicals was blocked and the finders of fact were retaliated against . . .

More than 3 years ago, a small group of government scientists came forward with disturbing allegations.

During President Donald Trump’s administration, the government scientists claimed their managers at the EPA began pressuring them. This effort was to make the new chemicals they were

Nothing new under the sun here. Maintaining profits has been a matter of fact for decades. It became more popular under Pres. Reagan.

Deere Reports Strong Profits Amid Layoffs of Workers Across Iowa, Des Moines Register

August 13, 2024 and Kevin Baskins at the Des Moines Register reports on the Deere & Company layoffs across the state of Iowa. Layoffs happen when the economy turns down, companies make mistakes, or when a new competitor hits the market. Just about anything can prompt a company to cut labor. Easiest thing in the world to do with Labor even though a company may have to kick into the Iowa’s unemployment funding for its present 22,000 employees. Neither are there plans to move Deere outside of the North American continent.

By Bill McBride

Calculated Risk

Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in August, and multi-family serious delinquencies decreased slightly.

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.52%, up from 0.51% June. Freddie’s rate is down year-over-year from 0.55% in August 2023.  This is below the pre-pandemic lows.

Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.50%, up from 0.49% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.53% in August 2023.  This is also below the pre-pandemic

Good Old Days? A story . . . I was at Parker-Hannifin Fluid Power for a bit over 4-years. Due to the economic slowdown in 1982, they let me go. I was replaced by someone out of sales. The explanation? His wanting to learn about manufacturing hydraulic and air cylinders. It was obvious he was losing his job in Sales. My boss came out of Sales and knew little about production planning and control. Over 4 years I made him look good by cutting inventory costs and improving distribution. So, there was no late orders and inventory was low.

He started a conversation with me one time where I disagreed with what he was saying to do. Being me and knowing the job, I asked a question and he agreed with me, asked another and he agreed also, and asked one last

But not enough for everyone.”

A partial taken from The Conversation on Drug Prices

The impact of the drug negotiations has been modest at best. There is a lot of talk and hurrahs. The results are not there yet. When I go to the outside for care, the VA pays the doctors at a minimum. If they want VA patients, them they accept minimal payments. If the VA disappeared those minimal payments would disappear. Like healthcare, pharmaceuticals are costly (a polite way of saying overpriced). I have a post somewhere discussing the ICER review of the top 10 in pricing. I also have a report using MedPac information too. I just have not finished them up to present.

The following? It is just a review of what id going on or has been going on in

Looking at business firms by age, what type of firms create jobs, and in what industry. In manufacturing, it would be older firms (eleven years or older) creating the most jobs. Older firms of eleven or more years are also creating more jobs in Retail. As we look at each category, older firms play a distinct role in job creation. The only time we see a distinct difference is in Accommodations where start-ups and one- to five-year-old firms have an impact.

The next chart (below) shows how firms vary in job creation, As you can see Firms of unknown age are having a lesser impact on job creation. Firms of eleven years or older are creating more jobs as they age. This could be due to adapting to the economy more so than some of the others depicted

Louis DeJoy, the Trump-appointed head of the United States Postal Service (USPS), is screwing with the 2024 election. His failure could impact the outcome of a close election. If it is close. With the help of a former NC postmaster and Steve Hutkins of Save the Post Office, we have been tracking the lack of progress with the USPS.

Keep in mind, the USPS goal is to deliver mail to every segment of the population, no matter where they live, and on a timely basis. That goal has been disrupted many times over by political interests who believe they could make it better “if” and those who are advocating against it and stymieing it efforts. Brief summation below.

“Dejoy has faced criticism and calls to step down since 2020, after he instituted

Excellent reporting by Motor Trend revealing how a new tech radio gives you music and can also eaves-drop on you. The result of eaves dropping is to schedule commercials that may appeal to your interests. The radio then will program commercial ads that may suit your interests. Maybe by introducing something new?

What do you think? Can you be persuaded by your radio pitching an ad for a new car after hearing you discuss cars with a passenger? A Ford for sure! The influx or commercials on TVs and radios is annoying presently. A radio attempting to appeal to my interests could result in a negative response. Anyone tired yet of political advertisements on TV?

I would turn the radio off or plug in a chip, disk, tape, etc. to avoid the use of my

I wanted to put up the entire report. It is just too long. However, the link is there for addition reading to back up the Executive Summary. Angry Bear has been reporting on the rising costs of pharmaceuticals. Hopefully, the Executive Summary will add to Angry Bears knowledge base.

PBM Report Final with Redactions

House.gov Report

Pharmacy Benefit Managers’ (PBMs) role as intermediaries between drug manufacturers and health insurance providers should have made them, in theory, the best positioned entities to decrease the cost of prescription drugs.1 Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) manage prescription drug plans for health insurance programs, including Medicare, and serve as intermediaries with pharmacies, employers and drugmakers.

There is an assumption by many politicians and believing citizens, the USPS is supposed to be profitable entity and run like a business. This is what the Postmaster General brings to the table as a solution. It was never the goal of the USPS to be such. Its task is to deliver mail to every place in the nation at the same amount of time. This in itself costs.

PMG Dejoy believes this is ok. The USPS can penalize people who live outside of a 50-mile radius of the new distribution centers and increase the costs of first-class mail as the delivery time increases. Something is wrong with the proposed logic.

The issues with the $87 billion in losses? A large part of this was the pre-funding of the USPS retirement plan. This was sponsored by Senator

This not much of a post. It is promoting an extension of the premium credits for those who could not afford healthcare insurance previously. A simple read and a necessary one to make people aware.

195 Congress Members were Calling for an Extension of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits – MedCity News, Marissa Plescia

In letters, members of Congress were urging their leadership to extend the enhanced premium healthcare tax credits which are expiring in 2025. Introduced in 2021, the premium tax credits lowered health insurance costs for millions of people purchasing coverage on the marketplace.

One of the letters was signed by 41 Senators. It was addressed to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).

Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US. Climate change plays a big role, The Conversation

Millions of Americans have been watching with growing alarm as their homeowner insurance premiums rise and their coverage shrinks. Nationwide, premiums rose 34% between 2017 and 2023, and they continued to rise in 2024 across much of the country.

To add insult to injury, those rates go even higher if you make a claim – as much as 25% if you claim a total loss of your home.

Why is this happening?

There are a few reasons, but a common thread: Climate change is fueling more severe weather, and insurers are responding to rising damage claims. The losses are exacerbated by more frequent extreme weather disasters striking densely

September 23, 2024

Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson

Letters from an American

That is how they are describing a desperate Trump .

“There’s nothing sadder than an aging salesman trying to close one last deal,” MSNBC’s Ryan Teague Beckwith wrote on September 21. Beckwith went on to list seven of Trump’s most recent campaign promises, most delivered off the cuff at rallies, that are transparent attempts to close the deal with different groups of voters.

Trump is also threatening voters. On September 19, he told two Jewish audiences that he had not been “treated properly by voters who happen to be Jewish,” and that if he doesn’t win the 2024 election, “the Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss,” adding in that case, “Israel, in my

By Edward Carver

Common Dreams

In a first-of-its-kind lawsuit, California Attorney General Rob Bonta on Monday sued oil giant ExxonMobil for allegedly deceiving the public about the recyclability of plastics so as to continue increasing production.

The 147-page lawsuit, filed in San Francisco County Superior Court, came following a yearslong  investigation that environmental groups were hoping would lead to legal action. They widely celebrated Bonta’s move.

“This is the single most consequential lawsuit filed against the plastics industry for its persistent and continued lying about plastics recycling,” Judith Enck, founder of the advocacy group Beyond Plastics and a former senior Environmental Protection Agency official, said in

By Chris Dall

University Minnesota.edu

“ambient air pollution and heightened antibiotic use”

A new study by Spanish researchers suggests that short-term exposure to air pollution may be tied to increased antibiotic use in people experiencing respiratory symptoms. The study, was published in JAMA Network Open, found that increases of daily ambient air pollution in 11 Spanish cities over 7 years were associated with increased antibiotic consumption among people who sought care for acute respiratory symptoms on the day of exposure.

Exposure to air pollution has previously been tied to a variety of adverse health effects, among them increased risk of stroke, heart disease, and lung cancer. But the authors of the study say the identification