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Mike Norman

Mike Norman

Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Articles by Mike Norman

Goodbye empire? US sanctions are failing in the face of multipolarity — Felix Livshitz

2 days ago

Published by the Council on Foreign Relations NGO, Foreign Affairs provides space for officials within the US military industrial complex to communicate with one another on matters they believe to be of the utmost significance. Therefore, it is important to pay attention when the magazine makes major pronouncements on any issue.It recently published an appraisal of US sanctions – the conclusion being that they are increasingly ineffective, have prompted Beijing and Moscow to create alternative global financial structures to insulate themselves and others from punitive actions, and that Washington and its acolytes will no longer be able to force countries to do their bidding, let alone destroy dissenting states, through such measures in the very near future.RT — Question More (Russian

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Migrating to Mastodon and some additional announcements — Bill Mitchell

3 days ago

Today, I have a few news and information items. First, I detail how to migrate to Mastodon so that you can continue to follow me as I escape Twitter. Second, I provide enrolment details for the next offering of our MMT edX MOOC. Third, I provide access details to my annual Helsinki public lecture which will take place tomorrow starting at 19:00 EAST.Bill Mitchell – billy blogMigrating to Mastodon and some additional announcementsBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australiael

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MMT And Banking — Brian Romanchuk

3 days ago

Since I am in the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) camp, I cannot write a book on baking without covering some of the critiques of MMT and banking. I wrote about this topic in Section 5.7 of my earlier book, Modern Monetary Theory and the Recovery. In this section, I am give a minimal explanation of the topic, without covering too much of the same ground of that earlier text.Note: This is a draft of a section that will go into my banking primer manuscript.Bond EconomicsMMT And BankingBrian Romanchuk

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The Most Egregious Mistake — Alastair Crooke

4 days ago

The situation is more complicated than this but Alastair Crooke brings out some key factors. There were actually two big mistakes that he mentions. First is the mistake of overestimating finance and underestimating productive capacity. Andrei Martyanov had been writing about this for some years.The second, which is related to the first, is the abject failure of intelligence to properly access the strength of the Russian economy. This is seldom mentioned but it is a huge factor. Alastair Crooke served in British intel so it is well aware of it.These mistakes together constitute a blunder that is leading to disaster. The US and its allies either have not yet realized this or have backed themselves into a corner from which they cannot escape without climbing down, and that threatens bringing

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Why sanctions may backfire — Heribert Dieter

4 days ago

The title should be, Why sanctions are backfiring. The hypotheticals are present realities.Interestingly, many have observed that when sanctions were used, war not long behind but they also perfunctorily say that this situation is likely different. Really? War is already raging and escalating along with increased sanctions that are having no noticeable effect on Russia’ behavior.This is a policy mistake that is turning into a strategic blunder of major proportions. Iraq was a strategic blunder but proportionately insignificant in comparison with Russia and China, who have been driven together into a de facto alliance against the US and its allies, many of whom have been dragged into this unfolding conflict reluctantly. War is returning to Europe, the very thing that NATO, the Common

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A Second Civil War — Aidan Simardone

4 days ago

The article is really about the economic "war" underway in the US between rural and urban areas rather than mostly political differences. So was the Civil War, which was about the abolition slavery, a political matter, but emancipation resulted in huge loss of capital. The Civil War was also about the urban-rurual divide, with the urban North dominated by factories and the rural South dominated by agriculture, chiefly cotton production.According to Bouie, slavery’s abolition was an existential threat to White slaveowners, whereas he’s “not sure there’s anything in American society right now that plays the same role”.Bouie is right. Ideas and beliefs are important, but without an economic basis, they cannot generate war. However, he is wrong that post-1991 polarization has no economic

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Putin urges EAEU nations to boost cooperation between national payment systems — TASS

4 days ago

"A consistent reduction of economic risks created by the use of foreign currencies and payment systems for mutual trade is seen as an urgent task. We believe that connecting partners to the Bank of Russia’s financial messaging system and developing inter-system cooperation between national payment systems is an indispensable condition for stable settlements within the Union," he said in an address to heads of EAEU members on the occasion of Russia’s chairmanship in the integration in 2023, which was published on the Kremlin’s website on Monday."Harmonization of financial markets should create favorable conditions for the member states’ capital to remain within the union and for it to be invested in the national economies. We also consider it advisable to examine the possibility of

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Rasmussen— Debt Ceiling: 56% Prefer Shutdown

4 days ago

As President Joe Biden prepares to face off with House Republicans over the U.S. government’s debt ceiling, a majority of voters would rather have a government shutdown than to have Congress sign off on more spending.A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters would rather have a partial government shutdown until Congress can agree to either cut spending or keep it the same. Just 34% would rather avoid a partial shutdown by authorizing more spending…The rest is behind a paywall. But you get the drift.Rasmussen Reports — Jan 23, 2023Debt Ceiling: 56% Prefer Shutdown

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Exaggerating China’s military spending, St. Louis Fed breaks all statistical rules with misleading graph — Ben Norton

4 days ago

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published a jaw-droppingly misleading graph that portrays China as spending more on its military than the US. In reality, the Pentagon’s budget is roughly three times larger….When the St. Louis Fed published the deceptive graph on Twitter, it went viral, garnering hundreds of negative responses.Michael P. McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, quipped, “If they’re willing to put this out, just imagine the internal analyses the Fed conducts to manage the economy”.In an accompanying report, the St. Louis Fed admitted that China’s 2021 defense spending was just 1.7% of GDP, “which was the lowest share among the six nations in the figure…How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff was required reading in my stat course

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“SpaceX Falcon Heavy landing explosion forces Elon Musk into humiliating explanation“

5 days ago

Look how these Art degree morons describe the result of this rocket test by Musk… “humiliating explanation!”…SpaceX Falcon Heavy landing explosion forces Elon Musk into humiliating explanationhttps://t.co/PSYWlohkHI pic.twitter.com/nQsiq2mQZe— Daily Express (@Daily_Express) June 27, 2019 Here’s musk: "The South African entrepreneur posted: “High entry force & heat breached engine bay & centre engine TVC failed.”  No biggie… make some adjustments…That was a few years ago now today:Amazing success for the Falcon Heavy with USSF-67 – watching these side boosters land never gets old. 👏 @SpaceX @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/0wFYXBLjQO— Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) January 16, 2023These Art degree people are disgraced dummies…  a humiliation of humanity…We need to default…

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Rocky defaults

5 days ago

Second greatest scene in motion picture history… up at 4am to train and fails:[embedded content]We need to default…Yet here he is a month later:[embedded content]We need to default you pussies…

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Bill Mitchell – Military spending binge is working to keep economies growing

5 days ago

Its been around 9 months since the central banks of the world (bar Japan) started to push up interest rates. And still there are no firms signs that a recession is impending. There are some signs of a growth slowdown but that is not uniform across the globe. The US seems to be continuing to grow. While that suggests that monetary policy is less effective than the mainstream economists claim – which is no surprise to non-mainstream economists who have long understood that fiscal policy is the tool of choice for counter-stabilisation, there are other offsetting factors that are at play here. Governments around the world have seriously ramped up their fiscal outlays over 2022 on military procurements as the perceived threat from Russia and China has been magnified by military generals and

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These Are the Times that Try Men’s Soul’s. And mine too. — Stephanie Kelton

5 days ago

Stephanie Kelton traces the problem to misunderstandings resulting from a poor choice of terms in which to talk about government finance, modeling it conceptually on household and firms finance, even when the former is the monopoly issuer of its currency and all that implies financially and economically, whereas firms and households are users of the currency that must obtain the currency, e.g, to pay taxes, since the government is the sole supplier. Consequently, it’s a mess that those in a position to profit from can exploit. She suggests adopting a terminology that fits operational realities based on existing institutional arrangements instead of continuing to use terms that promote a fantasy.The LensThese Are the Times that Try Men’s Soul’s. And mine too.Stephanie Kelton | Professor of

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The Debt Ceiling Limit is Destructive, Duplicative, and Dumb — Stephanie Kelton

6 days ago

When the limit is reached, it forces Congress to reaffirm its willingness to spend what it is already legally obligated to spend.In my view (I am not a constitutional lawyer), the president should just ignore the debt ceiling as contradictory. Now, the president is assuming that one horn of the dilemma prevails when there is no logical reason for doing so. A constitutional argument can be made that the debt ceiling is in violation of the Constitution, specifically the Fourteenth Amendment, Section Four, and therefore, it doesn’t stand. The LensThe Debt Ceiling Limit is Destructive, Duplicative, and DumbStephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats’ chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic

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Zero Hedge — India Overtakes China As World’s Most Populous Nation

6 days ago

Mixed blessing, especially with the level of disorganization and divisiveness in India. Demographics leads to opportunities and challenges and population increase can increase growth but it can also present emergent challenges that are difficult to meet without high-level organization, which India has not demonstrated so far.In contrast, China recognized its demographic challenges decades ago, which was the purpose of the one-child policy. Now China growth has stabilized and even begun to shrink. While this is positive overall, it also presents challenges such as an aging population for a while. But China’s major issue at the time of the institution of the policy was not being able to feed its growing population. That spelt political trouble down the line so the government acted to

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“Golden ruble 3.0” –How Russia can change the infrastructure of foreign trade — Sergey Glazyev and Dmitry Mityaev

6 days ago

Trade is settled either by barter, including using commodities, mostly precious metals historically, or a "safe currency" that countries are willing to hold. The USD, GBP, and EUR are considered safe currencies. Thus, an issue arises with "de-dollarization," which includes all currencies that Western powers control the use of. These currencies are considered "safe," that is, are not only default free but also relatively stable, but being subject to Western control, they put users at a disadvantage in that they can be "weaponized." So the question arises, how to settle trade without using currency or settlement systems of "unfriendly" states.One solution is two-party trade settled either by exchange of commodities that the respective partners to the trade desire, or by using their own

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Extending Capital to Nature, Reducing Nature to Capital— Peter Dorman

6 days ago

Capitalizing the commons. Peter Dorman explains why this should not be done.Basically, actual value lies real resources ("stuff"), not in nominal terms ("money"). For example, this is suggested by the distinction between nominal (market price) and real (inflation-adjusted price). The value of stuff is based on availability and utility. The most "valuable" real resources are are vital resources. On this scale, air and water are the most valuable, although owing to their availability, they are considered free goods.The Biden administration has announced it is inaugurating a program to incorporate the value of natural resources and ecological services into national income accounts. The New York Times article reporting this development predictably portrays the response as divided between two

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The Fed’s Sole Mandate — Lev Menand

6 days ago

This is an important post by a law professor. Hat tip to Adam Tooze for pointing me toward it. Here is a key excerpt. According to Professor Menand, the Fed’s sole mandate is promoting full capacity utilization and not chiefly managing inflation or running a command economy based on monetary policy decisions. The Fed has only a contributory role. Presently, it is widely assumed that the Fed has a mandate to manage the economy using monetary policy either as a replacement to fiscal policy or as a counter to it using the central bank "reaction function."Here is a key excerpt:In 1977, Congress added Section 2A to the Federal Reserve Act, charging the Fed with “maintain[ing the] long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long-run potential to

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13 Firms Hoard $1 Trillion In Cash

6 days ago

This was a year ago probably have even more now… Soon to be generating an additional $60B annual risk free munnie for doing nothing… 🤑13 Firms Hoard $1 Trillion In Cash (We’re Looking At You Big Tech) https://t.co/VaNgozrS61 via @IBDinvestors— Patrick Morris (@patrickmorris) February 5, 2022

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Trump v Biden

6 days ago

Trump: “DON’T CUT Social Security/Medicare”New policy video from @realDonaldTrump: Cut foreign aid to countries that hate us, cut the billions in Green New Deal extremism, secure the border & stop illegals from using taxpayer funded services, but DON’T CUT Social Security/Medicare for our seniors.pic.twitter.com/1UT065yOZ1— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) January 20, 2023 Biden: “Put all of it on the table”[embedded content]

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Dems crack

7 days ago

According to McCarthy here the Biden people cracked:President Biden: I accept your invitation to sit down and discuss a responsible debt ceiling increase to address irresponsible government spending.I look forward to our meeting.— Kevin McCarthy (@SpeakerMcCarthy) January 20, 2023 We’ll see….

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The Return Of The Debt Ceiling (Again) — Brian Romanchuk

7 days ago

The debt ceiling is being used a negotiating tool in American politics yet again. My concern with American politics is that most things seem to be over-dramatised, while some disturbing things are shoved under the carpet. The debt ceiling is a great source of hysterics from south of the border. My highly non-informed take is that this debt ceiling drama will end in the usual way, going to the 11th hour before some kind of deal is struck.American politics is kabuki. Externally, the drama is veneer over the bipartisan money/power grab. Internally, the only matter in contention is how the loot is divided. Behind the scenes it runs on legalized corruption and burying the bodies.However, there is some genuine drama going on now. Both parties are trying to destroy the other in a zero-sum game

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Another analogy

7 days ago

MTG with the “checkbook!" analogy:Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer wrote checks the American people can’t pay. Then they worked with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi to pass the problem to @HouseGOP.I will not sign off on a clean bill raising the debt ceiling limit! pic.twitter.com/Kne73d73Cp— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) January 19, 2023 Ultra MAGA digging in for a slog…

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Analogy

7 days ago

It’s the good oooolld “govt as business!” art degree analogy by this person who I guarantee does not even know what Basis of Accounting the US govt uses…. GUARANTEED… lock it…Would you invest in this business?Total debt: $31 trillionAssets: $4.8 trillionAnnual revenue: $4.9 trillionAnnual Income: $1.4 trillion LossThis is the US Government.— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 19, 2023

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