Fed’l budget to flip back to deficit. Strong leading fiscal flows. Liquidity to return. It’s bullish.

Fed’l budget balance reverts back to deficit. Leading spending flows remain strong. Market will rise.

Surplus shrunk to $21.5 bln. Will be back in deficit by early next week. Today could have been the bottom.

This place is wild. I want to buy a building.

May still running a $50 bln surplus. Deadly for market.

The stock market is trading like there’s been a 30% contraction in the economy, when in actuality the economy is growing at around 2%. Some stocks at generational lows. You won’t get these bargains ever again.

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Just checked today. Federal budget still in surplus this month by $31 bln. Continues to drain liquidity from markets.

Using the swimming pool analogy for hte economy, the April tax haul was the equivalent of draining all the water (yes…real liquidity) out of the pool. Luckily, the drain is plugged and the water is flowing back in again, but it will take time to fill up.

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Fed rate hike was totally baked in and meaningless. More important, the drag from April tax deposits is over. Recovery in economy and market on the way.

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There’s been so much buildup, hype, and hysteria leading up to this Fed policy switch.

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April’s $300 bln + tax haul was a serious liquidity drain, and it torpedoed stocks. What happens next?

Interest rates are viewed as the be all end all for the economy. Is that true?

If stocks crater, it won’t be because of rates, it will be from record taxes being collected by the government. The deficit is already down $1T compared to last year.

Bank credit is booming. No way the economy craters with a credit expansion like this. No way. Stocks are a major, major bargain right now.

Hard to believe that we have not gotten off this interest rate insanity. Interest rates have very little effect on the economy.

As the US exports record amounts of petroleum and natural gas, the dollar’s bull run may be only beginning.

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There’s 2 things working against the yen, and neither of them have anything to do with monetary policy.

NO ONE is bullish. It’s all doom and gloom. When the economy remains resilient and stocks fly higher, I will be breaking out the popcorn and taking it all in.

If you were ever going to be a contrarian now is the time!

I always worried that this could happen or worse.

You often here analyst and commentators talking about liquidity but their understanding of it is wrong. Here is what makes up liquidity. 

I understand the selling. It’s fear and emotion. However, I also see strong supportive factors.

I had a friend who was a gifted S&P trader. I once asked him how he did it. He said, he tries to think of what would cause the most pain to other traders, and he did that.

Fed policy will lead to much stronger earnings for the banks.

For every action there is a reaction. There’s two f*cking sides to a balance sheet!

Same behavior over and over again. Like Pavlov’s dogs.

A big name Wall Street analyst says it is. I have my doubts.

More likely the ones who got fooled were the ones who sold.

End of quarter rotation so stocks went down bonds went up. Bull trend still intact.