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Mike Norman

Mike Norman

Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Articles by Mike Norman

Some debriefing on continuous fiscal deficits and debt issuance — Bill Mitchell

9 days ago

A government cannot run continuous fiscal deficits! Yes it can. How? You need to understand what a deficit is and how it arises to answer that. But isn’t a fiscal surplus the norm that governments should aspire to? Why frame the question that way? Why not inquire into and understand that it is all about context? What do you mean, context? The situation is obvious, if it runs deficits it has to fund itself with debt, and that becomes dangerous, doesn’t it? It doesn’t ‘fund’ itself with debt and to think that means you don’t understand elemental characteristics of the currency that the governments issues as a monopoly. These claims about continuous deficits and debt financing are made regularly at various levels in society – at the family dinner table, during elections, in the media, and

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Episode 4 of the Smith Family Manga (S2) is now available — Bill Mitchell

15 days ago

Today (August 23, 2024), MMTed releases Episode 4 in the Second Season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit …William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryEpisode 4 of the Smith Family Manga (S2) is now availableBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

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Chartbook 310 The shock of the new: Dollar dominance and modern monetary macro in the 1920s. — Adam Tooze

20 days ago

Not MMT but relevant historically. How the world got here ((to dollar hegemony), as well as to monetarism, the accounting identity that is, as the basis of macro.  Adam Tooze is a historian rather than an economist, so he is able to shine a different light on the subject.ChartbookChartbook 310 The shock of the new: Dollar dominance and modern monetary macro in the 1920s. Adam Tooze | Shelby Cullom Davis chair of History at Columbia University and serves as Director of the European Institute

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NDX100 EPS

23 days ago

Something happened after the 2022 Biden unprecedented rate increases to really crush (-32%) the EPS of the NDX100… 🤔With the implication that this one time discount after the unprecedented Biden rate increases in 2022 might be reversed if those said rate increases were to be reversed…

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Major macroeconomic policy reform is needed to reduce the reliance on monetary policy — Bill Mitchell

26 days ago

There is some commentary emerging that is finally starting to question the reliance on monetary policy (setting interest rates) as the primary macroeconomic policy tool with fiscal policy forced into a passive role. In Australia, this debate has intensified in the last week following the hubris from the new Reserve Bank governor, who thinks her role is to sound like a ‘tough guy’ dishing out threats of ever increasing interest rate rises even as inflation falls. There was an Op Ed in the Sydney Morning Herald today (August 12, 2024) – Maybe only a recession will fix macroeconomic management – by the Economics Editor Ross Gittins, which challenges the current macroeconomic consensus. Some of this argument is acceptable. But when he advances his alternative proposal of “a new independent

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Episode 3 of the Smith Family Manga (S2) is now available — Bill Mitchell

29 days ago

Today (August 9, 2024), MMTed releases Episode 3 in the Second Season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit …William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryEpisode 3 of the Smith Family Manga (S2) is now availableBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

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US labour force data provides no basis (yet) for recession panic — Bill Mitchell

August 8, 2024

The financial markets around the world have over the last week demonstrated, once again, that they are subject to wild swings in irrationality despite mainstream economists holding out the idea that these sorts of transactions exhibit pure rationality. Some of the capital movements are explained by a shift in the interest rate spread between Japan and the US as the former nation decided to increase interest rates modestly. That altered the profitability of financial assets in each currency and so there were margins to exploit. But the big seings came when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data last Friday (August 2, 2024) – Employment Situation Summary – July 2024 – which showed payroll employment increasing by only 114,000 (well down on

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The Bank of England does not need a tiered reserve system for the Government to avoid austerity — Bill Mitchell

August 5, 2024

There is an interesting debate going on in the UK at present about the concept of tiered bank reserves. The concept is now being used by commentators to argue that the new British government does not need to inflict the austerity that the Chancellor has now announced (even though she is denying that is what the government is up to) because the government can simply reduce outlays to the commercial banks in order to meet the fiscal rules. The discussion is rather asinine really and features all the missteps that commentators make when trying to appear progressive but falling into the usual mainstream macroeconomic fictions….William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryThe Bank of England does not need a tiered reserve system for the Government to avoid austerityBill Mitchell | Professor in

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Trump: No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security

August 3, 2024

If he can get back in, would be substantial fiscal stimulus… Trump at least talking about economic proposals Dems just talking about all the transgender and climate nutter stuff while prices for real items remain elevated, unemployment rate keeps rising and rate of job creation keeps falling…[embedded content]Trump telling Powell at the Fed not to modify the policy rate before the election if he wants to finish his term if Trump gets back in…. Prediction markets now 100% probability of a cut in September so looks like Fed is going to reduce the rate before the election…Trump will then claim “election interference!” and will probably then get in front of it by promising to fire Powell on day one and guarantee a new Fed chairman who will immediately lower the policy rate to a point where

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British Chancellor fails the basic test – language is meant to impart meaning — Bill Mitchell

August 1, 2024

Language is meant to bring meaning to discourse. That means we want to use terms that convey information that is of use to us in making our way in the world. The problem is that economists have perverted that process and introduced a metaphorical language that is intended to persuade the reader/listener to accept a particular view of the world but which undermines their ability to actually understand the phenomenon in question. Marx knew long ago how language could be constructed to advance the interests of the ruling class. The mainstream economics commentary that is also used by politicians falls into this category. Terms are used that have no meaning in an elemental sense but provide support for ideological agendas. We, the public, allow that to happen because we are ignorant about the

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MMT and international trade–some further considerations in a degrowth context— Bill Mitchell

July 29, 2024

One of the undercurrents at the recent UK MMT Conference in Leeds was
the apparent unwillingness of MMT economists to acknowledge their
mistake in dealing with international trade. In our new book – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure
(published July 2024) – we devote a chapter to this issue. There are
various strands to the criticisms we receive ranging from claims we are
simply wrong at the most elemental level to others claiming trade has no
part in the MMT framework. All miss the point and I am surprised people
have tried to make a ‘career’ (or advance their egos) on this issue. As
I have noted several times in the past, the issue is nuanced but the
elementary facts are not. I am now working on a section for my new book
(with Dr Louisa Connors) on

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Episode 2 of the second season of our Manga – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money — Bill Mitchell

July 27, 2024

Today (July 26, 2024), MMTed releases Episode 2 in the second season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit …William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryEpisode 2 of the second season of our Manga – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money – available nowBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

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Currency Hierarchy — Eric Tymoigne

July 23, 2024

In Stabilizing and Unstable Economy, Minsky noted that “[a]n economy has a number of different types of money: everyone can create money; the problem is to get it accepted” (p. 228). While governments and banks usually get the spotlight, tens of thousands of monetary instruments have been issued by localities, ecclesiastic domains, local seigneurs, taverns and other private agents in many periods of monetary history, worldwide, up to the present [see Burn (1853); von Glahn (1996); Fletcher (2003); Blanc (2017)]. All these instruments are part of a “hierarchy of money” (Bell, 2001), “debt pyramid” (Olivecrona, 1957), “pyramid of credit” (Murad, 1954), or “scale of credit” (Wilson, 1811); a concept used to categorize the variety of monetary instruments available in a given area common to

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UK MMT Conference 2024 – Slides available for download

July 19, 2024

Download PDF’s of slide sets from the presentations at the recent UK MMT conference.The Gower Initiative for Modern Money StudiesUK MMT Conference 2024 – SlidesSee alsoThe National (Scotland)Scotland needs its own currency ASAP after indy, say top economistsScotonomics

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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) as ideological fortress for monetary technocrats — Vadym Syrota

July 16, 2024

Not MMT per se, but it explains something of the tenacious hold that neoliberalism has on economic and monetary policy owing to the Bank of International Settlements ((BIS).Monetary Policy Institute Blog #146The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) as ideological fortress for monetary technocratsVadym Syrota, Ph.D. in economics, independent banking expert, contributor to the specialized blog of the Kennan Institute Woodrow Wilson Center (USA)See alsoThe development of BRICS and its expansion in the Global South speaks to this issue internationally. In this view, it is not possible to reform the existing system. Another system this is based on different assumptions needs to be developed instead.The failure of heterodox approaches to reform or replace neoclassical economics also argues

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Season 2 of our Manga – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money — Bill Mitchell

July 12, 2024

Today (July 12, 2024), MMTed releases Episode 1 in the Second Season of our Manga series – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money. We have spent the last several months developing the storylines and graphics and Season 2 will run from today to December 6, 2024 with episodes appearing on a fortnightly basis.Have a bit of fun with it while learning Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and circulate it to those who you think will benefit …William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheorySeason 2 of our Manga – The Smith Family and their Adventures with Money – available nowBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

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Thinking back 50 years to Nixon’s resignation.

July 12, 2024

Thinking back to President Nixon’s resignation in 1974 due to the Watergate scandal, it almost seems juvenile by today’s level of scandals. Nevertheless, Nixon resigned. (He would have been impeached by the Senate anyway, most likely.)Now we have a geriatric, senile old man who can’t find his way off a stage or put intelligible sentences together and who is under pressure from his own party but won’t step down for the good of the country. The total collapse of integrity and accountability from 50 years ago. No surprise.Today, we lack leaders like Nixon. None of the current figures would make the same decision he did, especially for an issue that would be considered minor by today’s standards.

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Warren Mosler Says US Is Spending Too Much — Bloomberg

July 9, 2024

BloombergOdd Lots Podcast: Warren Mosler Says US Is Spending Too MuchMAEIL BUSINESS NEWSPAPER Korea’s No. 1 Economic MediaWarren Mosler warns of snowball U.S. fiscal deficit "There’s no guarantee that high interest rates will bring down inflation".Yoon Wan SupMachine Translation

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Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure (video)–Promo — Bill Mitchell

July 5, 2024

Here is a short video about our new book – Modern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure – which will be published on July 15, 2024.William Mitchell — Modern Monetary TheoryModern Monetary Theory: Bill and Warren’s Excellent Adventure – PromoBill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

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Atlanta Fed reduces Q2 GDP forecast once again, as I said they would

June 30, 2024

Back in April, the Atlanta Fed’s first GDP forecast for Q2 was 4.2%. I said that was ridiculous based on the year-over-year drop in net government transfers. I said they would have to revise that lower, probably equal to Q1 GDP of 1.6% if that. And sure enough, they did…FIVE TIMES, until they got it down to 1.5%-1.6%.Then, because of one strong retail sales report in May, they boosted it back up to 3.2%. Once again, I said they’d have to bring that down because the year-over-year drop in net government transfers had gotten worse. And sure enough, they did. Now they have it at 2.1%, which probably has to decrease even more.I don’t know what their model is, but mine is very simple, more accurate, and timely. Net government transfers are the first derivative of all economic activity.

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Dems warn Trump could “stoke inflation!”…

June 27, 2024

Dems doubling down on their current moron monetarist thesis that a plurality of voters will prefer the current regressive high interest rate policy over some other less regressive Trump fiscal/monetary policy…Sixteen of the world’s most notable economists — all Nobel Prize winners — are warning that former President Donald Trump could stoke inflation if he wins the presidency in November and moves forward with his economic plans. https://t.co/JRbXTuje2F— CBS News (@CBSNews) June 26, 2024

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Watch this Movie — Bethesda 1971

June 20, 2024

The Daily Kos is influential "on the left." This is good review of "Finding the Money" and hopefully it will wake more folks up to the fact that affordability is not the issue but rather the availability of real resources.Daily KosWatch this MovieBethesda 1971

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Everything you want to know about MMT — Lars P. Syll

June 20, 2024

One of the positive contributions of MMT, especially from a European point of view, is that it makes it transparently clear why the euro-experiment has been such a monumental disaster. The neoliberal dream of having over-national currencies just doesn’t fit well with reality. When an economy is in a crisis, it must be possible for the state to manage and spend its own money to stabilize the economy.Lars P. Syll’s BlogEverything you want to know about MMTLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

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Trump floats concept of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs

June 13, 2024

Even libertarian douchebag and alleged STEM degree Massie on board….  Would need a big GOP sweep to get it passed….I guess the tax elimination is going to over ride the debt doomsday thesis of these libertarian morons in their pea brains….  Hard to understand how their brains work….I’d  take it…  we could get rid of the tax but they would still be stupid…Can’t have everything…👍Most intriguing policy idea from the GOP meeting at the Capitol Hill Club this morning:Trump briefly floated the concept of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs. 🧐 pic.twitter.com/hw0k8gwlGa— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) June 13, 2024

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IMF: Dollar’s “stealth erosion” in global reserves by other currencies—Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen, Chima Simpson-Bell

June 12, 2024

Taking a longer view, over the last two decades, the fact that the value of the US dollar has been broadly unchanged, while the US dollar’s share of global reserves has declined, indicates that central banks have indeed been shifting gradually away from the dollar.BNEIMF: Dollar’s "stealth erosion" in global reserves by other currenciesSerkan Arslanalp for the IMF, Barry Eichengreen, Chima Simpson-Bell

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