Originally Published at The Bonddad Blog
by New Deal democrat
Industrial production is an indicator that has faded somewhat in importance in the modern era since China’s accession to normal trading status in 2000. Before that, a downturn in production was an excellent coincident indicator for a general downturn in the economy. Since then there have been several downturns, most importantly during 2015-16, when the broader economy, most notably housing and the consumer, did not follow. That was again the case of the downturn in 2023 – which has not resolved yet.
This morning’s report was another case of good news and bad news. The good news is that industrial production rose 0.1% for the month, and manufacturing production rose 0.8% from
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