[unable to retrieve full-text content]Data drought continues  – by New Deal democrat There is no new significant economic data today, and I am on the road. Meaningful reporting should resume tomorrow with housing permits, starts, and construction. In the meantime, here is a look at a high frequency series I keep track of: Redbook retail sales, for the past […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today. Since I didn’t publish a link to my “Weekly Indicators” post up at Seeking Alpha over the weekend, here it is now. Left to its own devices, as I’ve written a number of times recently, the economy is in “steady as she goes” mode, with few […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat It’s that time of month again for my favorite indicator for the consumption side of the economy: retail sales have been tracked for over 75 years. When they are lower YoY, that has historically been a good (not perfect) indicator that a recession is near. That’s because that same 75-year […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat Now that we are well past the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 last week, and the four-week average declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the usual one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million: On […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]January CPI: a new paradigm, with the reappearance of some old suspects  – by New Deal democrat Needless to say, January’s increase of 0.5% in consumer prices was not welcome. And there was a changing of the guard somewhat, as several of the old suspects (food and energy) made new appearances. Some of the spike […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat While we are waiting for new economic data tomorrow, let me pick up on an issue I closed with yesterday: while manufacturing has turned down, goods production in the US economy is being held up by construction, and in particular residential construction. Given the severe hike in mortgage rates as well […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat There’s no new significant news until Wednesday, so let’s catch up graphically with a few important items from Friday’s employment report for January. As I wrote then, probably the most important developments weren’t in the monthly numbers, but rather the annual revisions to both the Establishment and Household Surveys.  For […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]Real retail sales on the cusp of breaking out of their multi-year doldrums  – by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and as I reiterated yesterday real per capita retail sales has a history as a long leading indicator. Which means that retail sales for November, which rose 0.7% nominally, continues its recent strong string […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators – those that forecast a recession at least one year beforehand – in almost two years. That’s because the hurricane force tailwind of the supply-side deflationary unlinking of the global supply chain completely swamped everything else. So if I […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]Weekly Indicators for December 9 – 13  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the short-term forecast and nowcast have remained relatively constant, the “action” has been in the long leading indicators – some things good, some bad. The biggest thing that happened this week is that the […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat With the update on inflation earlier this week, let’s take a look a real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Plus there is a significant update to my yellow flag caution on the employment situation. First, nominally nonsupervisory wages rose slightly under 0.3% in November, while consumer prices rose slightly […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat As is so often the case this time of year, seasonality likely played havoc with this week’s new jobless claims. Last year Thanksgiving was November 23rd; this year it was the 28th, putting it in a different week for many statistics. So the jobless claims this morning were for the […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]November consumer inflation remains well-contained except for the two most lagging sectors of shelter and transportation services – by New Deal democrat Let me pick up where I left off yesterday discussing trends in consumer prices. One thing I have done every month for the last couple of years is to review all the categories […]
The post November Problem Inflation Sectors? Shelter and Transportation Services appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat No economic news again today. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report for November. As to which, I have read a few posts in which the claim is made that inflation, especially core inflation, is picking up again. It certainly could happen, but in my opinion the evidence for such a […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Most of the commentary about Friday’s jobs report for November was positive. By contrast, my summary – in which I averaged the two last reports to take into account the hurricane whipsaw – was much more cautious, as were the takes by a few other commentators I respect, like Ernie Tedeschi. […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week whipsawed the data that was heavily influenced by Thanksgiving week.  The tone of the short leading and coincident data remains positive. The negativity of much of the long leading data is becoming more problematic. As usual, clicking over and reading […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends  – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt  – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. It also is a slight leading indicators for both initial jobless claims and unemployment; and for forecasting wage growth as well.  Like many other statistics concerning jobs, the […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wednesday. The “big” takeaway I’ve seen elsewhere is that inflation picked up, and maybe will complicate the Fed’s task. But I don’t see where it’s such a big deal. The […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October. Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“ There was something of a mirror image […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]If you have been reading New Deal democrat all along, you will remember NDd’s commentary on October 23rd (the link is below) discussing the possible stall of corporate profits. Maybe it is an easy call and maybe not. There are negatives to corporate profits stalling. Read on . . .  – by New Deal democrat […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lowest since last May. The four-week moving average declined -1,250 to 217,000, also a six-month low. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.907 million: As with one […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Briefly . . . With the hurricane-induced weakness past, the short term forecast has improved to very positive. At the same time, while a few series have whipsawed the coincident nowcast to a neutral status. Importantly, consumer spending still remains strong. As […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s report on existing home sales indicated, at least for one month, a pause or even reversal in the previous trend of abating price increases and increased inventory. While existing home sales are  not nearly so important to the economy as new home sales, to the extent that home buyers […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat No data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed at the end of yesterday’s post; namely, if housing does indeed forecast an oncoming recession, what should we expect next in that sector? To cut to the chase, ultimately we […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat Housing data for October, like that for September, has to be viewed with an asterisk, due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Since the effects of both were in the South Census Region, where relevant in the analysis below I will also discuss the numbers excluding that region. The most leading […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by New Deal democrat Starting tomorrow we get to the time of month when the data on the important long leading sector of housing begins to be reported. So let me update a few important points about where this sector is likely going and its effects on the economy. As we probably all know […]
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[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. More the recent ‘same’ this week: short term and coincident indicators are a little noisy, but continue to say the economic OK. Meanwhile the longer leading indicators are mixed and weighing on future growth. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]
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