Catching up: November JOLTS report
Let me catch up on some data I didn’t examine last week: the November JOLTS report.
It decomposes the jobs numbers into a number of metrics, but is less than 20 years old, so only covers one full business cycle, so is of limited forecasting use.
To reiterate, here is the order in which the JOLTS series peaked during the 2000s expansion:
Hires peaked first, from December 2004 through September 2005
Quits peaked next, in September 2005
Layoffs and Discharges peaked next, from October 2005 through September 2006
Openings peaked last, in April 2007
So to start, here are YoY hires and quits for the entirety of the series, measured YoY
Hires has turned negative for some months in the past year, while quits remainRead More »