September manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down
– by New Deal democrat
As usual, we begin another month and another quarter with important manufacturing and construction data.
The ISM manufacturing index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months before a recession, and in three cases did not actually cross the line until the first month of the recession itself – although the recession did not begin until after the total index fell below 50, and in fact usually below 48.
In September the overall index declined to 50.9 – just slightly expansionary – and new orders declined to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of 47.1:Read More »