– by New Deal democrat
In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:
Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average, vs. a “soft landing” stabilization – and even whether the recent increase in monthly jobs numbers signifies a re-strengthening.
Based on the leading relationship of initial and continuing jobless claims, whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or whether there is further weakness.
Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, whether YoY wage growth would continue to decline
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