– by New Deal democrat
First, a programming note: I’ll post about retail sales later today.
Consumer inflation in April continued essentially to be an interplay between shelter and gas prices, with a side helping of auto insurance and repairs. During late 2022 and early 2023, shelter was still accelerating or steady at a high rate of inflation, while gas prices were falling. Beginning in late 2023, the dynamic reversed, as shelter inflation was slowly decelerating, while gas prices had bottomed. That remained the case in April.
So first, let’s look at the month over month change in headline inflation (blue) vs. inflation less energy (red) and inflation less shelter (gold) for the past two years:
All three rounded to +0.3% increases in
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