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Weekly update on SNB interventions: Sight deposits are debt for the central bank. An increase of sight deposits implies more debt and SNB interventions

The latest data show that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lost over half its owners' equity compared to December 2014. It is now less than 40 billion CHF, as compared to 86 billion in December 2014. We show the history for balance sheet and owners' equity.

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag. Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the lower the bond yields. Wealth is typically...

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration. They shall be a template for the tactical asset allocation along these dimensions for other conservative asset managers - CHF holdings certainly excluded because the SNB nearly exclusively buys foreign assets.

Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos was one of the first to use the term "euro glut". He anticipated a massive capital outflow from Europe that countered the huge European current account surplus. The Euro glut also led to the end of the EUR/CHF peg. Reasons are missing investment opportunities in Europe despite the high savings rate.

The former chief editor of "The Economist" Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to Shakespeare's seven phases of life. The seven stages are: Young debtor nation, Mature debtor nation, Debt repayment nation, Young creditor nation, Mature creditor nation, Credit disposition /Asset Liquidation nation and the back to start stage

Latest update for June 2015: The pace of SNB intervention is slowing. Sight deposits, the indicator for SNB interventions, rise by 0.5 billion francs per week. April and May: Sight deposits rise by 1.5 billion CHF per week. Thanks to this intervention the SNB is able to maintain the EUR/CHF around 1.0450.

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will profit on it.

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion game and the inflation game. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the "risk aversion game", the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil prices. The "inflation game" started earlier than we...