“The national landscape in 2018 tilts in favor of Republicans with Republicans sitting on 208 safe seats, 10 seats away from a majority, and 22 additional and not projected seats leaning Republican(too close to call).” It would take Democrats casting 55% of the votes in a national two-party election to tip the House majority the other way. It is possible as it did happen in 2008 when there was a 57% turnout. What makes the following projections disturbing is the accuracy of Fair Vote projections does not take into consideration polls, demographic characteristics of the districts, incumbent’s voting record, any scandals, or money spent. The basis for these projections are the presidential election results (both in the district and nationally) from 2016, and
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“The national landscape in 2018 tilts in favor of Republicans with Republicans sitting on 208 safe seats, 10 seats away from a majority, and 22 additional and not projected seats leaning Republican(too close to call).” It would take Democrats casting 55% of the votes in a national two-party election to tip the House majority the other way. It is possible as it did happen in 2008 when there was a 57% turnout.
What makes the following projections disturbing is the accuracy of Fair Vote projections does not take into consideration polls, demographic characteristics of the districts, incumbent’s voting record, any scandals, or money spent. The basis for these projections are the presidential election results (both in the district and nationally) from 2016, and an incumbent’s performance in prior elections. The only changes incorporated are when incumbents announce they will not seek re-election or when a state redraws congressional district lines. The methodology in the report is in detail with the only overwhelmingly important factor being a district’s partisanship measured only by the relative presidential vote in that district.
I have advocated for much smaller congressional districts along the lines of what is in Article 1 Section 2 of the Constitution which would remove much of the ability to gerrymander, give greater representation to people, and make Congressional representations responsive to the interests of the district rather than a select group in power. Fair Vote advocates another way worth taking into consideration. Read more of the site for a explanation. The following is how they view the 2018 House election outcome
Rather than follow 538 or Princeton Consortium both of who made a mess out of the 2016 election, I picked up on Fair Vote Organization. With 435 House Seats being elected every two years, one could believe there would be a small number of incumbents reelected each cycle. It is safe to say, the percentage returning to office is projected at 86% by the Fair Vote Org. or 374 seats secured by incumbents. So much for a Blue Wave? Incumbents can feel relatively secure in returning to office regardless of the opponent, how much is spent, or type of partisan wave occurring. The following chart represents 2018 Projections including Toss-Ups.