From Lars Syll
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from Lars Syll
Model builders face a constant temptation to make things more complicated than necessary because this makes them appear more capable than they really are.
Remember that a model is not the truth.
It is a lie to help you get your point across.
And in the case of modeling economic risk, your model is a lie about others, who are probably lying themselves.
And what’s worse than a simple lie?
A complicated lie.