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Immigration, Population, Replacement, Politics and the Economy

Summary:
Just some ramblings of mine after looking at numbers . . . . Immigration, Population Replacement, Politics, and the Economy are what comes together to ensure national growth. I am going to talk each in no particular order to answer my own questions that come up from time to time. Voting patterns continue to change. I started to track three states only because of 2016. I was nosey to see if they were radical in changes. They are not and the patterns go back to 1988 and 1992. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voter politics are changing. They are slowly becoming more Democratic. Since 1988 and 1990, they have gone Dem except in 2016 when they voted for Mickey Mouse, etc. The fools put trump in office because they did not like trump or

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Just some ramblings of mine after looking at numbers . . . .

Immigration, Population Replacement, Politics, and the Economy are what comes together to ensure national growth. I am going to talk each in no particular order to answer my own questions that come up from time to time.

Voting patterns continue to change. I started to track three states only because of 2016. I was nosey to see if they were radical in changes. They are not and the patterns go back to 1988 and 1992.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania voter politics are changing. They are slowly becoming more Democratic. Since 1988 and 1990, they have gone Dem except in 2016 when they voted for Mickey Mouse, etc. The fools put trump in office because they did not like trump or Clinton. In 2020, things were back to what happened previously since 88 and 92. Also, people migrating to other states appear to be more liberal than the ones living there already.

AZ is a purple state as of the last election. It looks like Senator Kelly has a good chance to win re-election. Kelly having better chances comes after Republicans and SCOTUS have blown things up and are still at it with insulin prices now for people with commercial insurance. Also, having found 10 more boxes of documents in trump’s possession does not help no matter how hard Repubs stomp their feet. We could use two more Dem Senators so we can tell Manchin where to politely go. Manchin is running West Virginia into the ground with his thoughts on the economy. In many areas, West Virginia ranks near the bottom of the fifty states.

The numeric today for the United States does not reflect massive immigration or population growth. The whole concept of immigrants over running the US being spun by Republicans is a lie and meant to agitate. It is working in many places. When we hit 300 million in 2006, the future growth in population was already happening. We reached this number mostly because of immigration.

On immigration “300 Million and Counting” | Smithsonian Magazine, Joel Garreau, 2006,

“This is crucial to everyone who plans to retire, because once you do, you’ll want a bunch of young, hardworking, tax-paying people supporting you, whether directly, through family contributions, or indirectly, through Social Security or pension programs. Unless you’re rich enough to live off your investments, there is no alternative. As it happens, retirement is on the minds of many, and not just in the United States.”

Today in AZ, people believe the state and the nation is being overrun by immigrants. Quite the opposite is taking place. Immigration is way down. Replacement rate has decreased. The US is on the verge of becoming much like European countries with decreasing population growth as the population ages.

There is some serious paranoia out there about immigration. Politicians, Republican politicians are making the most of it. I guess we could say the numbers do not reflect reality. Today’s reveal uses US Census, US Government numbers. They have their fingers in everything. There could be a conspiracy here? Doubtful . . .

What is interesting with all the noise about immigration is it having little impact on population growth. The other interesting part is the median age in 2006 was ~35. In 2020, the median age is 38.6. The US still has a younger population than much of the rest of the world even with a ~4 year shift.

“Population Grew 0.1% in 2021, Slowest Rate Since America’s Founding” (census.gov)

Some Facts

  • Twenty twenty-one is the first year since 1937 the U.S. population grew by fewer than one million people. The lowest numeric growth since at least 1900 (Census Bureau began annual population estimates).
  • Apart from the last few years, when population growth slowed to historically low levels, the slowest rate of growth in the 20th century was from 1918-1919 amid the influenza pandemic and WW I.
  • The U.S. population grew at a slower rate in 2021 than in any other year since the founding of the nation. Data is based on historical decennial censuses and annual population estimates.
  • The U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2021 Population Estimates released December 2021 reveals the population grew 0.1%. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the slower growth the country has experienced in recent years.
  • For Social Security, the latest SSA projections indicate there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.
  • Statistical Replacement Rate in 2020 fell to 1,637.5 births per 1,000 women and down from 1.7 births per 1,000 women in 2019. Unless there is increased and younger population, the nation could have economic issues as a growing portion of the population ages out.
  • In 2020, 1 in ~6 people were 65+ years of age and in 2040 1 in 5 will be 65+ years of age.

Kind of giving some direction here. Figure 1 pictorially reflects growth in population since 1900.

Immigration, Population, Replacement, Politics and the Economy

Population Change and Components of Change

  • Quick Read. Births are down and deaths are up. International Migration is down. Percent change in population growth is way down.
  • COVID-19, Declining Birth Rates and International Migration resulted in Historically Small Population Gains (US Census)
  • Slower population growth has been a trend in the United States for several years. The trend comes from decreasing fertility and net international migration, combined with increasing mortality due to an aging population.
  • Politically, larger populated states could lose representation. If immigrants were removed from the population count; Florida, Texas, and California would each lose one House Representative.

Immigration to the United States from other countries typically results in population growth. Intermarriage with other backgrounds typically does not happen for at least one generation. In 2006, Bush was the president and there was the problem of hopeful immigrants showing up at the Mexican border. Still an issue today and more so a political one. Figure 2 reflects population change and the components of the change. As you can see population growth is down as well as international immigration.

Immigration, Population, Replacement, Politics and the Economy

In Figure 2 displayed pictorially, immigration is way down and the US is not being overrun by immigrants. Saying it again to get the point across.

Largest Population Growth States

In the US, population is shifting from the North and East states to the South and West states. States gaining population are in Table 1. States losing population are in Table 2.

Immigration, Population, Replacement, Politics and the Economy

States in Population Decline

Immigration, Population, Replacement, Politics and the Economy

Joei Garreau, 300 Million and Counting

“However the debate is resolved, it’s probably worth noting a few historical assimilation practices in the United States.

– First, the US has a long and distinguished record of taking illiterate peasants from every desert, tundra and bog and turning them into overfed suburbanites in three generations or less.

– Second, new immigrants usually do not marry outside their ethnic group; their adult children do, with some controversy, and their adult grandchildren can’t remember what the fuss was all about.

– Finally, the traditional deal America has offered immigrants is: work, pay taxes, learn English, send your kids to school and stay out of trouble with the law, and we’ll pretty much leave you alone.

One fortuitous result of the enormous wave of immigrants coming to the United States is the median age is only a little over 35 (2006), one of the lowest among the world’s more developed countries. This country also has the most productive population per person of any country on the planet—no matter how you measure it, and especially compared with Japan and the members of the European Union.”

Joel Garreau wrote this in 2006. I do not see much change here other than decreased immigration, an aging baby-boomer population, average age of 38.6, a lower replacement rate, and a lot of political nonsense and scare tactics on the wrong issues.

References

“New Vintage 2021 Population Estimates Available for the Nation, States and Puerto Rico” (census.gov)

“Population Grew 0.1% in 2021, Slowest Rate Since America’s Founding” (census.gov)

“The US Population Is Aging” | Urban Institute

2020 RR: 1.6375 births U.S. Birthrate Fell By 4% In 2020, Hitting Another Record Low,”: NPR

“300 Million and Counting” | Smithsonian Magazine, Joel Garreau,

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