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The Trump conviction, first thoughts

Summary:
It’s far from clear the conviction will have much effect on the race.  Most people will not learn much from the conviction.  Small effects could go either way:  marginal Trump voters could turn away from him, stronger partisans could become more mobilized, etc. I don’t want him thrown in jail, which I guess is unlikely in any event.  With appeals the sentence would not start until after the election, and that would be an incentive for him to remain in power if he wins this year.  If Trump loses he will go to jail on more serious charges. Taegan Goddard says Democrats should emphasize “that it’s shameful for the Republican party to nominate a convicted felon for the most powerful office in the land.”  I tend to think they should emphasize that

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It’s far from clear the conviction will have much effect on the race.  Most people will not learn much from the conviction.  Small effects could go either way:  marginal Trump voters could turn away from him, stronger partisans could become more mobilized, etc.

I don’t want him thrown in jail, which I guess is unlikely in any event.  With appeals the sentence would not start until after the election, and that would be an incentive for him to remain in power if he wins this year.  If Trump loses he will go to jail on more serious charges.

Taegan Goddard says Democrats should emphasize “that it’s shameful for the Republican party to nominate a convicted felon for the most powerful office in the land.”  I tend to think they should emphasize that the charges related to January 6th and withholding classified documents are much more serious.  We could have had a trial on those charges to let the public see the evidence, but Trump delayed over and over.  What is he hiding from us?

Jonathan Chait points out that John “torture memo” Yoo is calling for revenge prosecutions.  Chait points out that Yoo is affiliated with AEI and Hoover, “reasonable” right-wing think tanks.  Naturally, principled classical liberal Donald Boudreaux cites a WSJ op-ed which puts all the moral agency for this allegedly dangerous prosecution on the democratic prosecutor and none on Donald Trump.  And just by coincidence, no doubt, this happens at a time that the capitalist rich are rallying around the former guy.  The fact that Boudreaux earns over $80k a year from the Mercatus Center – where Charles Koch is emeritus board chair – is also just a coincidence. 

If you think self-proclaimed classical liberals will rally to protect democracy against Trump you’re smoking dope. 

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