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Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

Videos by Cullen Roche

2023 Market Outlook: Inflation, Recession, and the Fed w/ Cullen Roche (TIP523)

Stig Brodersen has invited back Investment expert Cullen Roche to discuss how to optimize your portfolio for financial independence and sleeping well at night. 

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 – Intro
00:00:38 – What the difference is between CPI and PCE
00:08:23 – Whether central bankers should be elected? 
00:15:24 – What the velocity of money is, and how it impacts inflation?
00:20:23 – What it means for inflation and the US dollar that the world is decoupling 
00:25:26 – What a balance sheet recession is and why it is important to understand investors
00:31:49 – Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still working
00:39:06 – Which longer cycle we are missing in the financial markets 
00:40:45 – Whether the next 40 years of stock market performance will look like the previous 40

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Ep. 257: Cullen Roche Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).

The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
▪️ Entrepreneurism
▪️ Investing in yourself
▪️ The advantages of starting a blog
▪️ Why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe
▪️ Eliminating your biases
▪️ Why the US going bankrupt is a myth
▪️ The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers
▪️ Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys
▪️ Bringing risk down to something we can measure
▪️ Warren Buffett
▪️ Hedging your bets

Jump in!

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Cullen Roche On Macro Outlook And Housing Risks

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, joins Julia La Roche on episode 50 for a wide-ranging discussion of the macro environment and Housing — the risk keeping him up at night.

In this episode, Roche raises the point that when it comes to macro research, a lot of economists argue that the U.S. economy is a housing economy, meaning when the housing market slows down a lot, it filters through everything else.

“It’s really up in the air… Does this environment look more like a 2008-type of slowdown? Is it more like a 2002-ish type of long drawn-out slowdown that nothing really crashes, but things persistently adjust lower?” Roche said on the show.

Roche is in more of the 2002 scenario camp, but he notes there’s still an outlier risk of a credit event

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The 3 Most Important Investing Charts Today

Markets went crazy after last week’s employment report. What happened and what are the important takeaways from it all? In this video we explain three of the most important charts in the economy today and what they could mean for the future of the financial markets and the economy.

Chapters:

0:08 Intro
00:24 Average hourly earnings and the wage price spiral relief
00:36 Why would rising wages be bad?
00:58 Temp help and why it matters
01:41 Fed Funds Futures
02:24 Three big takeaways from these charts
02.:30 The return of the 1970s looks increasingly low
02:40 The risk of a deep housing downturn is still in play
3:00 Is a 5% overnight rate the gift of the decade?
03:20 Conclusion

Cullen Roche is the CIO of Discipline Funds, an asset management and financial advisory firm. He has

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Macro Masterclass with Cullen Roche | The Bitcoin Layer

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. Nik sat down with Cullen Roche, author, macro investor, and Chief Investment Officer at Discipline Funds. Cullen discusses the current macroeconomic environment, similarities and differences to 2008, and how stocks will respond as we reach peak interest rates for this cycle.

Follow Cullen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/cullenroche

Cullen’s Book ‘Pragmatic Capitalism’: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance/dp/1137279311/

New YouTube videos every Wednesday and Friday. New Substack posts
every Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday.

Thanks to our Sponsor!
VOLTAGE: https://TheBitcoinLayer.com/voltage

Subscribe to TBL on Substack:

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Cullen Roche – Why Macro Matters

Cullen Roche is the Founder of Discipline Funds. Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory and asset management firm. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche founded his own investment partnership in 2005 after working at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he helped oversee $500MM+ in assets under management. During the the 7 years running the partnership he was able to guide the small business to high risk adjusted returns with no negative full year returns during one of the most turbulent periods in stock market history.

Mr. Roche’s primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, behavioral finance and monetary theory.

He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times.

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Macro Investing | Understanding How And Why w/ Cullen Roche (TIP486)

Stig Brodersen has invited back Investment expert Cullen Roche to talk about how the world of investing has changed over the past decades and why you need to think as a macro investor first and foremost. 
 
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 – Intro
00:00:53 – Why and how do we need to understand the macro environment when we invest
00:07:29 – Why we should think of the economy as we think of the human body
00:19:54 – Why the traditional buy-and-hold equity strategy is flawed
00:27:40 – Why a house we live in is typically not a good investment
00:33:05 – How has the stock market performed after inflation and taxes? 
00:37:50 – Why investors are not globally diversified when they  invest in the S&P500
00:47:57 – Why bonds bear markets are different from bear markets in stocks
00:56:05

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The Best Place to Invest Cash Right Now

In this video we discuss the underlying dynamics of interest rates and why banks pay you interest on your deposits. We also go into the basics of how a savings account and money market fund works. Lastly, we discuss some of the best options for beating the low rates currently offered by banks.

Useful links:

1) Treasury Direct

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/

2) Why do Banks Need Deposits?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbJjJMr4jDc&t=2s

Cullen Roche is the CIO of Discipline Funds, an asset management and financial advisory firm. He has managed billions of dollars in his career and helped thousands of people achieve financial independence. He is the author of the best-selling book "Pragmatic Capitalism" as well as the most widely read macroeconomic paper on the SSRN database

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Cullen Roche – The Most Important Financial Question to Ask

Am I providing my family with the best possible life I can?

That was the question that Cullen Roche, an accomplished author, writer, and expert in global macroeconomics, behavioral finance, and monetary theory, brought to our attention during our conversation.

We also discussed the topic of inflation, what it is, how to understand it, and where it is going. Do you ever wonder why the US government is not bankrupt because of the national debt? It’s because the US government is not your average household, and we talk about why that is too.

Cullen and I also discuss the critical aspects that a wealth advisor provides, which do not involve stereotypical investment management. There is nothing sexy about helping people to allocate their savings to support their wealth

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Cullen Roche: Will The Federal Reserve Cause A Severe Recession In 2023?

Cullen Roche addresses if The Fed will cause a severe recession in 2023.

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche: The 2008 Housing Crisis vs. Now (2022-2023)

Cullen Roche explains the difference between the 2008 housing crisis and where the housing market stands now in 2022-2023.

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Inflation Or Deflation? 1970s vs. 2020s [Cullen Roche]

Cullen Roche discusses inflation and deflation in the 1970s versus the 2020s.

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche: What Inflation Really Looks Like

Cullen Roche shares his take on what inflation really looks like. #inflation

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche’s 2023 Housing Market Outlook – Is A Crash Coming? #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche discusses the 2023 housing market outlook and answers the question, "is a crash coming?" #shorts #realestate

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche On How Alternative Investments Can Improve A Portfolio #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche breaks down how alternative investments can improve a portfolio. #shorts #investing #alts

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche On Why A Stock Market Correction Is Healthy #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche shares why a stock market correction is healthy. #shorts #investing

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Why Cullen Roche Is Bearish On The Macroeconomy (2022) #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche explains why he is bearish on the macroeconomy. #shorts #investing

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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An Inside Look At DSCF (Discipline Fund ETF)

Cullen Roche offers an inside look at DSCF (Discipline Fund ETF).

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche On The Risk Of A Stock Market Crash (2022) #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche breaks down the risk of a stock market crash in 2022. #shorts #investing

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Cullen Roche: Are We In A Recession? (2022) #shorts #investing

Cullen Roche answers the question many investors have in 2022, "Are we in a recession?" #shorts #investing

###

AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on tax-advantaged investment strategies to help preserve and grow generational wealth.

Learn more about AltsDb:
https://altsdb.com/

Connect with us on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/altsdb/

Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/altsdbcom

Listen on Apple Podcasts:

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Will The Housing Market Crash In 2023? With Cullen Roche

The Fed has hiked interest rates multiple times this year, but inflation remains stubbornly high. So are current housing prices unsustainable? If so, when will a housing market correction occur (and how deep will it be)?

Cullen Roche, founder and CIO of Discipline Funds, joins the show to discuss what real estate investors should expect going into 2023.

Show notes: https://altsdb.com/2022/09/cullen-roche-057/

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical information they need to make smarter investment decisions.

Our podcasts, newsletters, and events focus on

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Inflation vs. Deflation vs. Disinflation, With Cullen Roche

Inflation has taken center stage in 2022, but its causes are a lot more complex than many investors assume. Moreover, it’s not yet clear to what extent higher #inflation will sustain into 2023 and beyond (i.e., whether the peak is already in the rear-view mirror).

Cullen Roche, founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, joins AltsDb host Andy Hagans to demystify inflation, #deflation and disinflation (and what investors need to know).

Show notes: https://altsdb.com/2022/09/cullen-roche-056/

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AltsDb produces content and events for High Net Worth investors, family offices and financial advisors who place capital in alternative investments.

Founded in 2021 by Jimmy Atkinson and Andy Hagans, our mission is to provide our audience with the critical

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Everything Investors Need to Know About Federal Reserve Policy with Cullen Roche

There has been a lot of debate about Federal Reserve policy in the wake of the pandemic. But many of those involved in that debate want to promote a specific position and interpret the facts in a way to accomplish that goal. In this episode, we wanted to take a step back cover the facts about the Federal Reserve and how it operates. And we couldn’t think of a better person to do that with than our friend Cullen Roche. We discuss the history of the Fed, what its mandates are, the tools it can use to achieve its goals, and how all of that applies to the situation we find ourselves in today.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT CULLEN
https://disciplinefunds.com
https://www.pragcap.com
https://twitter.com/cullenroche

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast

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Cullen Roche – Debunking Common Investment Myths (Live from San Diego)

This week on Standard Deviations with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Dr. Crosby is joined by Cullen Roche. Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds. Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances. He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.

Tune in to hear:

– What is “all duration investing” and what behavioral upside might this approach have for investors?

– How can you better organize a bucketing approach to reflect those investments’ time horizons?

– What about the tendency for all time horizons to become today in the face of

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How The U.S. Tries To Control Inflation | Inflation Masterclass w/ Cullen Roche (TIP472)

By popular demand, Stig Brodersen has invited back Investment expert Cullen Roche for the 9th time! They continue their inflation masterclass and talk about the current outlook for inflation. 
 
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 – Intro
00:00:40 – Why inflation will be moderate in the coming years
00:08:19 – Why deflation is more likely than hyperinflation
00:16:54 – Whether velocity of money is important for inflation
00:21:41 – Whether a negative budget balance leads to inflation 
00:32:03 – How you include inflation expectations in your retirement portfolio 
00:42:35 – What the optimal inflation or deflationary target is
00:51:41 – What would a deflationary world look like? 
00:56:56 – Whether we are entering a period of a "Fed call"
01:04:07 – What the 2Y treasury is telling

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‘Bear Markets Always End’ – How to Prepare for a Market Rebalance With Cullen Roche | Making Money

The first half of the year is in the books… And, unfortunately, it was the worst first six-month period since 1970. But the odds are good that we’ll be able to climb out of this rut.

In this episode of Making Money With Matt McCall, I’m kicking off the second half of 2022 by sitting down with Cullen Roche, the founder and chief investment officer of advisory firm Discipline Funds. This is a must-watch interview full of insights from both Roche and me that could help set you up for a strong finish to 2022.

⭐️ Get Matt’s FREE report ➡️ https://bit.ly/3r4zmtl

➡️ Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/StansberryResearch
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What Is Money?

We had to cover the most essential question there is. What is money? We go into the essential properties of money and the scale of moneyness. All in less than 3 minutes. #money #bitcoin #stocks

Links to learn more:
1) What is money? IMF
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/basics.htm

2) What is money? Pragmatic Capitalism
https://www.pragcap.com/what-is-money/

3) Understanding the Modern Monetary System. Cullen Roche
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1905625

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