Sunday , August 1 2021
Home / Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

Articles by Cullen Roche

What’s Next for the Fed and Inflation

2 days ago

Here’s an interview I did on the TD Ameritrade Network explaining a few current hot topics:
Why the Fed should stop using the term “transitory”
What’s the likely future of inflation?
At what point will the Fed start worrying about inflation and potentially raise rates?
Why housing and the recovery could pose the biggest risks to inflation upside.
I hope you enjoy.
[embedded content]

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Learning From Bad Inflation Takes

11 days ago

The great thing about Twitter is that the instant you put a bad take into the universe you will get roasted for it. The bad part about Twitter is that the instant you put a bad take into the universe you will roasted for it. I kid, kind of. There’s actually a lot to learn in saying the wrong things and I’ve surely benefitted from putting my wrong opinions out into the universe only to have someone correct me. So I guess you could say that there’s no such thing as a stupid take, only stupid responses. Or something like that. Anyhow, here are some bad takes on inflation that I think are learning experiences. And don’t worry, bad inflation takes don’t have a political bias so you should be able to find something to confirm your preferred political bias in here:
1. AOC on inflation. AOC was

Read More »

The Fed Should Stop Using the Term “Transitory”

18 days ago

This website exists in large part because our government is extremely bad at communicating complex topics to the general public. I’ve tried to fill that void by explaining some of these more complex topics over the years. So I dedicate yet another post to our government, whose communication skills continue to leave something to be desired….

TRANSITORY – adjective 

The Fed keeps saying inflation will be “transitory” so they’re willing to keep rates low and keep pumping their balance sheet because they’re not worried about sustained high inflation. This has become a bit of a joke online because your Average Joe knows that none of this will actually be “transitory”. This is a significant communication

Read More »

How Does the Fed “Manipulate” Interest Rates?

24 days ago

Warning – hard money types are going to lose their minds over this article. I apologize in advance. 
It’s impossible to talk about interest rates without running into people who think the Fed has “manipulated” interest rates lower than they otherwise would be. As if the bond market has become nothing more than one huge completely manipulated Federal Reserve market. This is a really intuitively appealing argument and it’s not even completely wrong, but I want to add some important operational facts for context. Importantly, I am not here to say that the Fed doesn’t manipulate stuff. In fact, the Fed is an explicit manipulation of the regulatory structure of the overnight settlement market. But I am here to argue that the Fed doesn’t manipulate rates DOWN. In fact, they pretty much always

Read More »

What is “Fractional Reserve Banking”?

July 1, 2021

The term “fractional reserve banking” is commonly used in a confusing manner in both mainstream economics and within lay conversations about economics. I hope this article with clear up some of the common confusions. 
Fractional reserve banking is the idea that banks take their reserves and lend them into some fraction based on the quantity of reserves they hold. This idea has been largely debunked since the financial crisis. In reality, banks do not lend their reserves, except to one another inside of the reserve system (which is a closed system, ie, reserves don’t even leave the system). They don’t even lend based on the quantity of reserves they hold. In reality, banks make loans and find reserves after the fact if they must. And if the Central Bank has a reserve requirement in place

Read More »

Does a 100 Vol Asset Belong in Retirement Accounts?

June 24, 2021

The Washington Post reports that some 401K providers are considering cryptocurrencies in their portfolios. The idea that alternative assets should be more widely available has become a more and more common refrain due to the fact that many of the best performing asset classes in the last 10 years are crypto and venture capital, two asset classes that are closed off to most traditional investment accounts like 401Ks and IRAs. Should this change? Let’s explore. For the purposes of this exercise I’ll focus on cryptocurrencies as opposed to specific venture capital investments. 
As you enter or near retirement most people will need this portfolio to provide a certain level of stability to offset the unpredictability that comes with reduced income streams from working. This account is

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Transitory Stuff

June 19, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
1) “Transitory” inflation….Contrary to popular opinion, I am not the Director of Communications at the Federal Reserve. I don’t even work for the Federal Reserve. I’m just a lowly asset manager who happens to oversee a big chunk of fixed income so I worry incessantly about inflation and interest rates. That led me to obsess about how the Fed actually works and so here I am constantly writing about how the Fed works and how they think about things. If I am being honest, I think the Fed is generally terrible at communicating things to the outside world. So, they end up being an easy target for pretty much anyone who wants to dunk on them.
Anyhow, the Fed loves using the term “transitory” to describe blips in inflation. But I’ll be blunt, I

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Bitcoin, Moar Bitcoin and Inflation

June 8, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
1) Moar Bitcoin!  Back when I was a young adventurous person I used to have an exciting portfolio filled with interesting individual stock bets. But then I learned a bunch of economics/finance, got old/fat and turned into a pretty boring indexer. So I just love it when other people make wildly insane bets that I can write blog posts about. And I think that’s why I love the MicroStrategy story so much. In case you haven’t been following along, Michael Saylor, the firm’s founder has basically turned into a full blown laser eyed Bitcoin Maximalist. He’s convinced that the USD is going to blow up and that 15% annual inflation is coming. So he doesn’t want to hodl his firm’s cash in USD. But instead of going down the traditional finance route

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – The More Things Change the More They Stay the Same

June 2, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
1) Markets are crazy, part 2,343,325. I like to say that markets don’t really “cycle” like a sine wave. They tend to trend up and to the right with temporary shocks along the way. Whatever causes the shock (up or down) will always be different. But the responses are more or less the same. That is, people get greedy, then they get really greedy, then they get fearful and then they get really fearful. Timing all of this is damn near impossible, but while the causal factors are always “different this time”, the one constant that’s never different this time is human emotion.
We’re obviously living through one of the “really greedy” phases. Case in point, AMC bonds, which have to be one of the charts of the year. These bonds were left for

Read More »

Everything Wrong with the “Money Printer Go Brrrr” Meme

May 26, 2021

You’ve probably seen some version of the following meme in the last few years. In case you haven’t it’s generally used to infer that Jerome Powell is printing money and hyperinflation is coming. I love a good meme and few things make me happier than hilarious nonsense on the internet. So I feel bad debunking this meme because it’s kind of funny and memes are mostly harmless, but this is one of those memes used by people who want you to believe something that isn’t right. Anyhow let’s get into it.
[embedded content]
Problem #1 – Jerome Powell Doesn’t actually Print Cash. 
Let’s start with a really basic problem in this meme – the Fed firing cash out of the money printer….
That cash that Jerome is firing out of the money printer isn’t really in his control. Technically, the cash in your

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Crypto, Crypto, Crypto

May 24, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about.
1) So. Much. Crypto. 
I am about to write a post entirely about crypto. But before I do that I want to make it clear that this space gets WAY too much attention. I mean, we’re talking about an asset class that is incredibly small relative to the scope of the global financial asset portfolio. At just 1% of global financial assets the entire crypto space is about the size of Amazon. Amazingly though, the crypto space dominates the airwaves. It’s virtually all anyone can talk about these days. So, here I am to pile on.
Of course, the reason it’s getting so much attention is because of the sharp increase in prices. Crypto is the get rich quick narrative of the year. Or, more recently, the get poor quickly narrative. I was looking at the

Read More »

Let’s Talk About Inflation

May 12, 2021

Whooboy. What a CPI print. Here are some highlights in case you have a life and don’t drool over BLS reports:
The all items index experienced its largest increase (4.2%) since Sept 2008.
The used car index was up 10% in April, its largest increase since 1953.
The core index (ex food and energy) was up 0.9% in April, its largest increase since April 1982.
Fun. There will be a tendency in many circles to assume that this is the return of the 1970s or something like that. I think we need to relax and try not to overreact. Here’s why:
1) These figures are exaggerated by base effects. The price index troughed in May of 2020 at 256. So the year over year comps start looking exaggerated because of the COVID effect. Basically, the economy was in crash mode last April and May so prices

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Losing Reserve Currency Status

May 11, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about.
1. Is the Fed “Playing with Fire”? 
Stan Druckenmiller had an op-ed in the WSJ about how Fed policy has been too loose for too long. I think there are some reasonable perspectives here. I’ve been pretty vocal about the risk of inflation overshooting the Fed’s target this year. I also think there’s an increasingly convincing argument that the Fed’s policies have contributed to a lot of financial market craziness in the last year. It would not surprise me at all to see the Fed backpedaling later this year or in 2022 as they unwind the balance sheet a bit and raise interest rates to try to contain inflation and the housing market.
At the same time, I think this was a risk worth taking. For instance, let’s say the Pandemic had turned out to

Read More »

The Scarcity of Money Myth

April 27, 2021

I’m here to ruin some long running narratives. I apologize in advance.
Money is not scarce. It never has been and it never will be. More importantly, scarcity of money is not a strength.¹ It is a weakness. Sound weird? Yeah, I bet. Let me explain.
Back in college I was kind of obsessed with commodities and commodity money. I’d been reading a lot of Austrian econ and all that stuff. But then I came across the endogenous money theories and I learned over time that money is not a physical thing or a rock in the ground or anything “natural” at all. Money is actually a very unnatural thing. We’re the only species that uses it because it is pretty much something we conjure up in our minds. More specifically, “money” is really just a bunch of contractual agreements. It’s “I’ll give you 25

Read More »

Credo Wealth Interview on the Macro Landscape

April 20, 2021

I recently joined Deon Guows of Credo Wealth, a $5B wealth management firm in London, to discuss the macro landscape in the years to come. We hit on a huge number of topics. Check out the chapter time stamps in the YouTube video to navigate to specific parts. I hope you enjoy!
[embedded content]

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Housing Bubble 2.0, Passive Investing and Hyperinflation

April 8, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
Is the Housing Market a Bubble (Again)?
I’m starting to see a lot of chatter about a housing bubble 2.0. So I went on Twitter and asked people what they thought. There were tons of smart responses if you want to review them. Ben Carlson also wrote a nice piece about the state of the housing market. I think Ben gets the big picture right. Basically, this isn’t that much like 2006 because:
The buyers are mostly high creditworthy wealthy people.
There hasn’t been a big building boom. In fact, supply is tight.
There’s a lot more to the story, but that’s the basic gist of what’s going on.
I’d only add that the current price boom seems to be more about COVID than anything else. In other words, I think that future demand has been pulled into

Read More »

Let’s Talk Some More About Assflation

March 31, 2021

One of the persistent themes since 2008 is the theory that there has been excessive “asset price inflation”. I’ve talked about this quite a bit before, but it is worth repeating. And no, “assflation” does not refer to the 19 lbs we’ve all put on during COVID. It refers specifically to the term “asset inflation”. This is the idea that the “inflation” that was supposed to show up in consumer prices has been showing up in asset prices like stocks and housing. There’s a bit of truth to this, but let’s discuss this in more detail so we can keep things in the right perspective.
Capital Goods vs Consumption Goods
It’s important to make a clear distinction between capital goods and consumption goods in the context of the term “inflation”.
A consumption good is something that you literally

Read More »

Understanding Government Liabilities

March 29, 2021

I keep running into a strange issue in macroeconomic discussions – no one seems to agree on how we should account for government liabilities. For instance, Gold standard economists believe government issued cash is not a liability (even though the Federal Reserve specifically shows it as a liability on their balance sheet). MMT economists say government “debt” is an IOU, but not borrowed debt. They also, at times, refer to government debt as equity.¹ Other people think the government’s debt needs to be repaid. Other people think it’s some sort of debilitating liability, as if there isn’t an asset side of the equation that balances out. There’s even a whole new monetary movement designed to argue for “debt free money”. Anyhow, I want to try to explain this in a simple way that hopefully

Read More »

Stocks Don’t “Only Go Up”

March 25, 2021

It’s become popular during the last year to argue that “stocks only go up”. And yes, it sure feels like that some times. In fact, in the long-term, it’s mostly true. The odds of you losing money in the long-term are low:

The problem with this view is that we don’t live our lives in the long-term. We live our lives in the short-term and a large portion of our financial liabilities are short-term – our rent, mortgage, car payments, etc. In financial portfolios we have what is called a perpetual asset liability mismatch. That is, you have certain short-term and long-term liabilities that you need to match with certain short-term and long-term assets. None of us can match those liabilities perfectly because we don’t really know what they’ll look like across time. And while the stock market

Read More »

Why Stocks and Bonds are the Core of any Portfolio

March 16, 2021

“Stocks are overvalued and risky. Bonds yield nothing and expose you to interest rate risk. So you need to invest in alternative assets.” – Pretty Much Everyone
I am a big advocate of a core and satellite approach to asset allocation. For instance, in my book I talked about the Total Portfolio approach. That is, everyone should own a diverse group of assets and consider how their Total Portfolio relates to what we typically think of as our “investment portfolio”. This might include real estate, cars, collectibles, art, Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, etc. Some of these items will lose value over time. Others will increase in value. You diversify specifically because you never know the future. But at the core of this portfolio are stocks and bonds. Why? Because everyone needs a high degree of

Read More »

How Worrisome is the Rise in Interest Rates?

March 1, 2021

The key to understanding the COVID-19 recession was in understanding that it was an exogenous shock. This made it quite different from your standard recession in the sense that a boom did not cause the bust. There was no endogenous build up of unsustainable forces that led to the decline in output. COVID was much more akin to a natural disaster. This meant that the recession could be deep and painful, but it was unlikely to last very long. This was crucial to understand (and a key component of my optimism last April) because it meant that the probability of a deflationary (or disinflationary) recovery was unlikely. For example, the 2008 recession was an inherent credit crisis. Credit expanded too much and when home prices collapsed that credit had to contract as well. Credit

Read More »

Why Pump & Dumps Are Dangerous

February 4, 2021

On Sunday evening, before GameStop had fallen 85% from its peak, I said:

My guess is GME will collapse in the coming months or year when this charade passes and a lot of people will get hurt along the way.

I can’t lie. I am really mad to be right about this. Mainly because all of the narratives surrounding this whole charade have been so disingenuous/misinformed and a lot of famous people promoted those bad narratives along the way. And now we’re finding out that a lot of small retail investors are left holding the bag. In fact, we’re finding out that hedge funds made a lot of money at the cost of retail investors. So, what happened here? How can we try to avoid this again in the future?
One of the worst narratives that started this whole thing had to do with how short sellers are

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – YOLO Gambling is Reckless

February 2, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. Actually, they’re all basically the same thing and they’re all GameStop, of course. But whatever.
1) The Short Sellers Did It!  The GameStop saga has been a nearly endless stream of bad narratives. And the one narrative that no one is discussing, the one that actually makes sense is “YOLO gambling is reckless”. But we’ll come back to that in a minute.
The bad narratives started with evil short sellers. You know how it goes – short sellers are bad and need to be destroyed. Luckily for us a Reddit Forum of day traders was just the right hero. Of course, anyone who fully understands how short selling works knows that that narrative was nonsense. Yeah, it’s kinda cool to see a big high fee hedge fund get caught up in a retail trading frenzy,

Read More »

My View On: Short Selling

January 29, 2021

The recent craziness in Gamestop has resulted in a lot of hot takes on short selling. I have the hottest takes, of course, so let’s dive into this a bit deeper and put this debate to rest. 
Here’s a piping hot take from the richest man in the world:

Wow. That kinda makes sense. But wait, does it really? No, Cullen, stop. Back up. Let’s explain how this works first. Just so we’re all on the same page.
Short Selling Basics. This whole convo kinda reminds me of the buyback debates or the national debt debates or the money multiplier debates. You know, the types of debates in finance where 95% of the popular narratives are based on a misunderstanding of the first principle basics of the things involved. So, let’s all get on the same page here about how this works.
If you want to bet on XYZ

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – GAMESTONK!

January 28, 2021

I’d love to talk about the mechanics of Central Banking or index funds, but the only thing that matters in financial markets right now is Gamestop. So…we’re going to talk about index funds. Seriously. But also we’ll talk about Gamestop so don’t worry. If you haven’t been reading up on the Gamestop saga then maybe circle back to yesterday’s article. 
1) Robin Hood or Robinhood? The big story of the day is that Robinhood the trading platform shut down access to buying new shares of Gamestop. This essentially locks out potential new buyers and forces existing holders to sell on their platform. The stock dropped 70% at one point on that news. A lot of people are outraged by this. They feel like Robinhood is protecting big hedge funds from further losses and taking advantage of the little

Read More »

Three Things I Think I Think – Civil WHAT?

January 26, 2021

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:
1) There’s Gonna be a Civil WHAT?  Here’s an interesting tweet from Ray Dalio:

I really like Ray Dalio. His All Weather portfolio is more or less the kind of permanent portfolio that I think most savers should try to implement (for most of their savings). But I have a hard time figuring out how some of his broader macro views fit into all of this. For instance, he believes that there are long-term debt cycles that create patterns in social and economic behavior. Okay, that makes some sense. But honestly, how could he have enough data to justify a view like this? If a long-term debt cycle is 100 years then we’ve had, what, one or one and half long-term debt cycles in the modern economic age? How could you formulate sound judgments about

Read More »

Rational Reminder Podcast – Understanding the Modern Monetary System

January 24, 2021

I recorded this podcast a few weeks ago with Cam Passmore and Ben Felix on the Rational Reminder show. Ben had read some of my work over the years and reached out to me before publishing this absolutely wonderful explanation of QE. He asked for my critique of the video, but I couldn’t find any. He had succinctly and thoroughly explained the topic like few can. Then he asked me to come on his podcast to do something I’ve never done before – go through my popular paper “Understanding the Modern Monetary System” point by point. Cam and Ben are great interviewers and really know their stuff. There’s a ton of good content on their page. I hope you enjoy this one.
[embedded content]

Read More »

2021 World Podcast Tour Begins!

January 14, 2021

Well, it looks like it’s going to be another year of Zoom calls so what better way to start it off than a podcast recorded on a Zoom call.
I joined Stig and Preston on The Investor’s Podcast again and we covered a lot of ground including:
– Why money supply expansion is not equal to inflation– Understanding the new rules of bond investing in today’s inflation and interest rate environment– How to protect your portfolio against inflation– Whether there is a rational argument for stocks to be trading at 50 times earnings
I hope you enjoy!

Read More »

Is All of Finance Just a Big Network Effect?

January 7, 2021

In college I was a registered Republican. After I graduated I registered as a Democrat. And a few years ago I registered as an Independent. I guess I just couldn’t ever figure out which tribe I belonged to – which network I wanted to associate with. The last 8 years have been interesting to me mainly because I feel like I’ve watched two competing network effects trying to convince one another that their network is better and the more they can demean, retain and recruit others the more powerful their network becomes.
Anyhow, I am really exhausted from all the politics of the last few years so I won’t torture you with more of it. But it all has me thinking about the power of network effects and how people can buy into things that are only loosely grounded in fact (or sometimes void of any

Read More »

Is Inflation Really 10%?

January 6, 2021

One of the long running themes on this website is low inflation and debunking narratives about how very high inflation might be around the corner. I like to work from a first principles understanding, looking at things for what they are and trying to be as objective as possible. Overall, my predictions about low inflation and low interest rates over the last 10 years have been mostly spot-on.
Sure, in the last year I’ve been predicting rising inflation due to the huge stimulus measures, but I want to keep that in perspective – when I say I expect higher inflation I am saying that I expect inflation to return to 2019 or higher levels and that the Fed could start to feel pressure to raise rates by 2022. That means 2-3% inflation and rising rates. It doesn’t mean a return to the 1970s or

Read More »