Alright, nerds. It’s time to put on our thinking caps and fill up our pocket protectors. We’re gonna talk about inverted yield curves.
First things first – What is an inverted yield curve?
An inverted yield curve is a description of the comparison between 10 year Treasury note yields and 2 year treasury note yields. Those are the only two instruments that matter here. If anyone else says an inverted curve is some version of some other set of instruments then take away their nerd badge. They’re out of the club. So, for instance, if the 10 year is yielding 2% and the 2 year is yielding 2.5% then the curve is inverted by 0.5%. Here’s a current picture:
Inversions are weird because the curve should normally shift upwards. Short maturities should yield lower amounts than longer maturitiesRead More »