Background
Assumption #1: Voting is an affirmative action. You have to be willing to do it. When I say, “if it’s raining, I’m not going to waste my time voting for Joe Biden and Tammy Murphy,” it will not change the outcome of the Presidential or, probably, even the New Jersey Senate election. But the turnout will be lower than a sunny day would be. Similarly, “if it’s only drizzling, I’ll probably vote for Andy Kim, at which point I might as well vote for Biden,” sets another level. The number of contests, the preference for the candidates, the weather all affect voter turnout because voters have to want to vote for or against someone or something. (See, for instance, the bid to get a measure on the Florida ballot to make women’s
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