The Angry Bear

Steve Hutkins of Save the Post Office has been live blogging and providing updates to the 12 federal district court cases filed. In the November 6, 2020 Update Steve discusses the delivery updates being filed in court and which are being used by some news outlets to show the USPS has been delivering ballots late and not on Election Day. Steve cautions against the use of this data as actual delivery dates are different than processing dates. November 6,...

Whining Pundits  As I write this the outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain, although the trends seem to be heading steadily in Biden’s favor and it seems very unlikely he will lose, but the hanging on of this is beginning to get to many of us.  Most other races have been decided, although some of those are still up in the air.  In any case, although it is near certain Biden will win, it will be by a substantially lower margin that...

Steve Hutkins on-line live blogging at Save the Post Office has been updating the progress of the “Lawsuits against DeJoy, USPS & Trump with relation to mail delays and election mail. This is the sweep ordered by the court for the USPS to perform to discover and report via the  “sweep of facilities”  how many ballots (were) are being delayed due to the USPS. The twitter link in the Afternoon Update has numerous comments on the delay by the USPS...

Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims continued their decline, also to a new pandemic low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by only 543 to 738,166, just above October 3’s revised pandemic low of 731,249. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 7,000 to 751,000, a new pandemic low (which was also last...

Warning! First person ahead. I don’t usually talk about myself, don’t even like to talk about people, but this a story that I want to tell and don’t know how to otherwise do so. So, your forbearance, please. Those of you who have been around as long as I, have probably witnessed personnel changes that follow a change in political Administrations. I happened to be on campus when Reagan became governor in 1967 and saw people with no qualifications...

The Morning After Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand the re-election of Donald Trump, together with a continuing GOP majority in the Senate. Not to mention the prospect of continuing to shelter in place for perhaps years as the COVID pandemic is allowed to run free. As of this morning, absentee and mail-in ballots are still being counted in many swing States. As a result, as...

Biden Narrowly Leads In Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin  Several months ago I forecast that “He who wins Prairie du Chien wins the White House.”  I also argued more generally that SW Wisconsin would determine Wisconsin. As of right now Trump is leading by about 2% in Wisconsin, and he seems to be ahead in most of the counties of SW Wisconsin, although Milwaukee has not yet come in.  And the county Prairie du Chien is in, Crawford Trump is leading 4620 to...

Two Questions about the Election  I am about to turn in and let the vote-counting continue without me.  It will be a troubled sleep since the election was mostly a disaster.  (Universal preschool won in Oregon, and if everywhere were like here I would be happier.) Meanwhile two questions: 1. What went wrong with the polls?  They didn’t do too badly in 2016; the popular vote was close to the consensus prediction, and the electoral college was a squeaker...

I promised myself not to forecast. I promised you that I would call Pennsylvania when I could. I get Trump ahead by about 700,000 and 2,000,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Assuming independents split (generous to Trump) Dem-Rep on absentees is about 50% so … I call Pennsylvania for Biden. (I may delete this post tomorrow). But I promised.

September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read on October (ISM manufacturing). Both were very positive in their important components. While total construction spending was only up 0.3% from a downwardly revised August, private residential construction spending (i.e., non-public housing construction) increased 2.8%:...