The Angry Bear

Can the Fed successfully steer between Scylla and Charybdis? An update As I type this, the spread between 2 year and 10 year Treasuries is back to 0.25%, the level below which I switch my rating on the yield curve from positive to neutral. Already the spread is tight enough that, even if it never inverts, it suggests a slowdown in the next 6-12 months, as happened in 1984 and 1995 in the graph below of real YoY GDP growth and the Fed funds rate:...

(Dan here…a little late posting,,,my fault) A graph for Sunday: 2012 Obama voters by 2016 vote  – by New Deal democrat This is a graph I’ve been meaning to comment on, that I saw on Vox.com a couple of weeks ago. It breaks down Obama voters from 2012 based on who they voted for in 2016, and adds in Romney voters who voted for Clinton in 2016: As an aside, note that the graphs measure opinions per group, and definitely *not* their number. Also,...

Weekly Indicators for August 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were 4 long leading indicators that were on the cusp of changing. To see what happened, please  put a penny or two in my pocket by heading on over and reading!

(Dan here…lifted from Roberts Stochastic Thoughts) Totally Twitty Fiskin of Antoine Levy Antoine Levy has some ideas about how the European Central Bank could help uncompetitive economies on the European perifery. I would like to read it and decide if he has good ideas. Unfortunately, to do so, I have to sfogare (let off steam) with some francophobic Euroskepticism. This is therapy. don’t waste time reading it”The euro improved the credibility of monetary...

Industrial production cools a bit; retail sales continue strong Both industrial production and retail sales for July were reported this morning. Let’s take a look at both. First, industrial production increased m/m to another all time high (gray in the graph below), as did manufacturing (red): At the same time, if you zoom in on the inset, you can see that manufacturing growth has slowed down somewhat this year.  It is only up +0.8% in the last 5...

“The national landscape in 2018 tilts in favor of Republicans with Republicans sitting on 208 safe seats, 10 seats away from a majority, and 22 additional and not projected seats leaning Republican(too close to call).” It would take Democrats casting 55% of the votes in a national two-party election to tip the House majority the other way. It is possible as it did happen in 2008 when there was a 57% turnout. What makes the following projections disturbing...

Economic Policy Institute has published a new study on the surge in CEO compensation: Summary What this report finds: This report looks at trends in chief executive officer (CEO) compensation, using two different measures. The first measure includes stock options realized (in addition to salary, bonuses, restricted stock grants, and long-term incentive payouts). By this measure, in 2017 the average CEO of the 350 largest firms in the U.S. received $18.9...

Is Aretha The Equal Of Michelangelo? In the Washington Post of August 17, Chris Richards declared that the performance by Aretha Franklin of the title cut on her 1972 gospel-soul album, “Amazing Grace” “deserves to be compared to everything Michelangelo ever painted.”  Now  I am not prepared to go that far, but  when I learned she had died, it as this particular song by her on that album (which I have in vinyl from when it first came out) that I wanted...

(Dan here…Lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) Politico End Zone Dance The cover article of politico is a concession by Blake Hounshell that he was wrong and that I and many others were right. I enjoy a little end zone dance in comments The case is overwhelmingly convincing. Also none of the critical evidence is new. As you now are no longer a russiagate skeptic, you should concede that you were foolish in February. All the (100% convincing)...