Lars P. Syll

.[embedded content] A thing of beauty is a joy for ever: Its loveliness increases; it will never Pass into nothingness

For many people, deductive reasoning is the mark of science: induction – in which the argument is derived from the subject matter – is the characteristic method of history or literary criticism. But this is an artificial, exaggerated distinction. Scientific progress … is frequently the result of observation that something does work, which runs far ahead of any understanding of why it works. Not within the economics profession. There, deductive reasoning based on logical...

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A freedom fighter’s speech to European Parliament .[embedded content]

Use of covariates in RCTs (wonkish) .[embedded content]

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How to make good decisions in a radically uncertain world .[embedded content] To understand real-world decisions and unforeseeable changes in behaviour, ergodic probability distributions are of no avail. In a world full of genuine uncertainty — where real historical time rules the roost — the probabilities that ruled the past are not necessarily those that will rule the future. Time is what prevents everything from happening at once. To simply assume that...

A day that will live forever in infamy in European history How do you grieve for a nation? I don’t know. But one thing I do know is that February 24th 2022 is one of the saddest days I and all my brothers and sisters in Ukraine have ever experienced. The verdict of history will be harsh. .[embedded content]

Bayes vs classical statistical p-testing .[embedded content] [For more on the RCT referred to in the video, take a look here. Mortality numbers are, of course, important, but so is the fact that among the 241 patients who received the drug, 52 developed severe illness, compared to 43 of 249 patients who did not take the drug … ]

MMT and ‘monetary crankery’ MMTists often like to position themselves as the only ones to properly understand the ‘operational realities’ of modern monetary systems. Ironically, many of the claims made by MMTists on this topic are misleading at best. One common rhetorical tactic that I’ve noticed they employ, which often catches their critics out, is to use the term ‘government’ in a way that’s different typically from how it is used in mainstream...