Lars P. Syll

Alan Kirman debunking mainstream economics .[embedded content] An economic theory that does not go beyond proving theorems and conditional ‘if-then’ statements — and do not make assertions and put forward hypotheses about real-world individuals and institutions — is of little consequence for anyone wanting to use theories to better understand, explain or predict real-world phenomena. Building theories and models on patently ridiculous assumptions we know...

Which causal inference books to read Source All suggestions are highly readable, but for the general reader, yours truly would also like to recommend The book of why by Pearl & Mackenzie.

Why economics has failed so miserably .[embedded content] The economy is — as emphasised by both Keynes and Soros — pervaded by genuine uncertainty and reflexivity. The uncertainty makes the future difficult to anticipate and reflexivity often makes our expectations about the future something that actually changes the future. They both severely undermine the explanations and predictions that are made  within the standard economic models.

Gendern oder nicht gendern? .[embedded content]

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RCT — a questionable claim of establishing causality The ideal RCT is the special case in which the trial’s treatment status is also assigned randomly (in addition to drawing random samples from the two populations, one treated and one not) and the only error is due to sampling variability … In this special case, as the number of trials increases, the mean of the trial estimates tends to get closer to the true mean impact. This is the sense in which an...

Don’t buy into the inflation scare .[embedded content]

The role of RCTs in development .[embedded content]

Econometrics — science based on unwarranted assumptions There is first of all the central question of methodology — the logic of applying the method of multiple correlation to unanalysed economic material, which we know to be non-homogeneous through time. If we are dealing with the action of numerically measurable, independent forces, adequately analysed so that we were dealing with independent atomic factors and between them completely comprehensive,...