Naked Keynesianism

A long demand by progressive economists demanding the end of the surcharges that the IMF imposed on developing countries has had a positive outcome, with the executive board reducing them. The statement by Kristalina Georgieva can be read here. A strong effort on this by Joe Stiglitz, Martín Gúzman, Kevin Gallagher, Mark Weisbrot, to cite a few should be noted. I had recently signed the letter below favoring this policy."Dear International Monetary Fund Board of Directors,This Friday October...

So both the (inverted) yield curve and the Sahm rule indicate a recession. This together with two months of slower employment creation, and the slightly higher unemployment rate, has many wondering whether the economy will crash soon. I discussed before -- a while ago, before the pandemic recession, that had nothing to do with the yield curve -- why an inverted yield curve doesn't necessarily mean a forthcoming recession. The Sahm rule, like the inverted yield curve has an impressive track...

 Spaghetti economics: Shootout at Harvard Square There were two letters about the poorly written (not the English, always impeccable, contrasting to my spaghetti English, which is always slightly off, like the Westerns) piece that The Economist had on Donald Harris. One by Robert Blecker, Steve Fazzari and Peter Ho, setting the record straight on the breadth and depth of Harris' contributions to economics. On this, they echo what the Post said about Harris' policy advice in his native...

I start teaching this week (tomorrow). One of the things we are encouraged to discuss with students is the issue of academic misconduct. One of those problems that always existed, and not just among students, and it is hard to say whether things are better or worse than before, even though everyone thinks it has worsened. Certainly AI has made things even more complicated. At least in my classes, AI has limited impact, since it is an average of what is out there, and that is conventional...

[embedded content] My colleague and friend Geoff Schneider on teaching and pluralism in economics.  He was the director of the Teaching & Learning Center at Bucknell, when I arrived here, and I learned quite a bit from him. At any rate, worth watching it.

[embedded content] Carlos Pinkusfeld interviews Ramaa Vausdevan (Colorado State University) and Franklin Serrano (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) to discuss the complex challenges of monetary policy in the international arena. Exploring issues such as financial globalization, the influence of large economies on the global monetary system, and the implications for developing countries, the experts offer important perspectives on the role of central banks and the effectiveness of...

 Original thoughts  The 30 year anniversary of the stabilization plan that controlled high inflation in Brazil, the so-called Real Plan, just passed earlier in July. I wanted to write something about it, but it got buried with other things. Here just some very short reflections. There was a huge coverage in the media and several new books and papers written about it, including by several of the actual participants of the stabilization plan. If I have to leave one impression beyond the...

By Sergio CesarattoA debate has developed in Europe (on Vox.eu and elsewhere) on the fiscal costs related to the interest payments that central banks in the eurozone are bestowing on commercial banks, a result of the way monetary policy is currently conducted. The implementation of monetary policy currently revolves around the ECB’s direct control of the interest rate paid on an abundant excess of bank reserves (relative to mandatory reserve requirements) (see Cesaratto 2020, chapter 7)....

The election in Venezuela is always contentious. I've written quite a bit about it over the years (see everything here; on the previous presidential election see here). Some have decided already that is a fraud, and sustain that the previous ones were also, although that is far from clear, and most likely Maduro (let alone Chávez did win all the previous elections). This time around things are less clear. First of all, the opposition seemed more unified, even with the disqualification of...

The big question in the case of Argentina, as always is when it will explode. If the current developments are an indicator of anything, it should be sooner rather than later. Note that the fundamental problems regarding the possible crisis and default are associated to the external debt in dollars (one has to repeat this all the time). It does not mean that there weren't other problems with the Argentine economy, but the domestic issues do NOT lead to a default (yes, that means the fiscal...