Real-World Economics Review

from Lars Syll There are three fundamental differences between statistical and causal assumptions. First, statistical assumptions, even untested, are testable in principle, given sufficiently large sample and sufficiently fine measurements. Causal assumptions, in contrast, cannot be verified even in principle, unless one resorts to experimental control. This difference is especially accentuated in Bayesian analysis. Though the priors that Bayesians commonly assign to statistical...

from Dean Baker There has been a lot of silliness around President Biden’s proposed infrastructure packages and the extent to which they are affordable for the country. First and foremost, there has been tremendous confusion about the size of the package. This is because the media have engaged in a feast of really big numbers, where they give us the size of the package with no context whatsoever, leaving their audience almost completely ignorant about the actual cost. We have been told...

from Ken Zimmerman (originally a comment) Neoliberal economists announce to all, whether they want to hear it or not regularly, those who are wealthy and powerful deserve both, and more due to their greater intelligence, commitment, foresight, and competitive spirit. They deny that prejudices of any kind, racial, ethnic, gender, political, etc. play any part in such determinations. Referencing to the old Grouhcho Marx’s joke, these economists want us to believe their theory rather than...

Source: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44705/6

from Lars Syll There are three fundamental differences between statistical and causal assumptions. First, statistical assumptions, even untested, are testable in principle, given sufficiently large sample and sufficiently fine measurements. Causal assumptions, in contrast, cannot be verified even in principle, unless one resorts to experimental control. This difference is especially accentuated in Bayesian analysis. Though the priors that Bayesians commonly assign to statistical...

May 1st brought wet weather so I worked on my new additions in the garage today. Mustache engine guard and the Holdfast system with the Sissy Bar and Luggage Rack.

from Jayati Ghosh The unfolding pandemic horror in India has many causes. These include the complacency, inaction and irresponsibility of government leaders, even when it was evident for several months that a fresh wave of infections of new mutant variants threatened the population. Continued massive election rallies, many addressed by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, brought large numbers to congested gatherings and lulled many into underplaying the threat of infection. The...

from Maria Alejandra Madi While the study of wicked problems is not new, there is a need to develop a broader understanding of its scope in policies under the paradigm of complexity. The origin of the term “wicked Problem” goes back to Rittel and Webber’s (1973) questioning of the validity of technical-scientific approaches in social policy and urban planning. In the face of complexity and uncertainty, these problems require iterative approaches, with the consideration of multiple causes...

from Ted Trainer and current RWER issue The conventional approach to development assumes that movement towards a single unified global economic system is desirable. This is seen as providing greater access for all to markets, productive and export opportunities and sources of imports. Globalization involves reducing impediments to trade and investment such as tariffs, protection, subsidies and government intervention in the market. The pressure is on economies and individuals to produce...