Saturday , September 7 2024
Home / EconoSpeak / Muth and Lucas: Call your offices!

Muth and Lucas: Call your offices!

Summary:
On his Marginal Revolution blog, Tyler Cowen describes the recent "purge" in the trucking industry. The pandemic shift in demand towards goods, as opposed to services, produced a big increase in the demand for trucking, which in turn produced a huge response, including a  big increase in the number of small trucking companies. Now that is all being reversed, precipitously, with trucking companies falling like flies--the purge.This all sounds very, very "cobwebby" to me. It was Muth's article criticizing the cobweb model that inspired Lucas' "rational expectations revolution." I am old enough to have learned the cobweb model in  a principles course, but I don't know of any modern texts where it appears. We moderns have read Muth and know that rational expectations kill cobwebs.Let's

Topics:
kevin quinn considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Bill Haskell writes Labor Market Conditions – Sahm

Lars Pålsson Syll writes Skogskyrkogården — A Masterpiece of Landscape Architecture

NewDealdemocrat writes August jobs report: for the first time, including revisions, more consistent with a hard landing

Robert Vienneau writes Goal: Perturb Special Case Of Steedman’s Corn-Tractor Model

 On his Marginal Revolution blog, Tyler Cowen describes the recent "purge" in the trucking industry. The pandemic shift in demand towards goods, as opposed to services, produced a big increase in the demand for trucking, which in turn produced a huge response, including a  big increase in the number of small trucking companies. Now that is all being reversed, precipitously, with trucking companies falling like flies--the purge.

This all sounds very, very "cobwebby" to me. It was Muth's article criticizing the cobweb model that inspired Lucas' "rational expectations revolution." I am old enough to have learned the cobweb model in  a principles course, but I don't know of any modern texts where it appears. We moderns have read Muth and know that rational expectations kill cobwebs.

Let's  syllologize:

If ratex is true, then no cobwebs.

Cobwebs.

Ergo, ratex is false.


qed



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *