by His interview by Hannity some days ago is below.[embedded content]And of course rhetoric is one thing; if he gets into office what he does may well be very different. In that respect, he is a wildcard.Note carefully: (1) Trump says he will not cut entitlements; so, incidentally, does Bernie Sanders.(2) his major line on the economy is: ditch free trade deals and offshoring of jobs and end the exporting of manufacturing to the Third World (despite laughably paying empty lip service to “free trade”). Bernie Sanders agrees.But it is difficult to see how he can do this without smashing up the WTO and America’s various free trade deals. That means a revolution in the international trade regime and probably US protectionism and tariffs.(3) Trump says he wants to spend much more on US infrastructure. Bernie Sanders agrees.(4) the bad news: he seems to be talking the talk of budget balancing and cutting government spending. But it is bizarrely difficult to see how he can do this if pushes through his massive and regressive tax cut plan and increases military and infrastructure spending. A Trump presidency will either crash the US economy through fiscal austerity, or (perhaps more likely?) Trump will ditch the fiscal responsibility and go for Reaganomics Mark II: a large tax cut, massive deficits and perhaps even increases in discretionary spending.
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Lord Keynes considers the following as important: Short on Policy Detail, Trump: Big on Rhetoric
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And of course rhetoric is one thing; if he gets into office what he does may well be very different. In that respect, he is a wildcard.
Note carefully:
Conclusion: Trump is Bernie Sanders-lite.(1) Trump says he will not cut entitlements; so, incidentally, does Bernie Sanders.
(2) his major line on the economy is: ditch free trade deals and offshoring of jobs and end the exporting of manufacturing to the Third World (despite laughably paying empty lip service to “free trade”). Bernie Sanders agrees.
But it is difficult to see how he can do this without smashing up the WTO and America’s various free trade deals. That means a revolution in the international trade regime and probably US protectionism and tariffs.
(3) Trump says he wants to spend much more on US infrastructure. Bernie Sanders agrees.
(4) the bad news: he seems to be talking the talk of budget balancing and cutting government spending. But it is bizarrely difficult to see how he can do this if pushes through his massive and regressive tax cut plan and increases military and infrastructure spending. A Trump presidency will either crash the US economy through fiscal austerity, or (perhaps more likely?) Trump will ditch the fiscal responsibility and go for Reaganomics Mark II: a large tax cut, massive deficits and perhaps even increases in discretionary spending. So possibly his fiscal policy, if he gets in, will actually turn out to be expansionary, and generally speaking somewhat like that planned by Bernie Sanders.
(5) on health care: Trump seems to have retreated from any significant government involvement here, and favours market-based models.
(6) Trump rejects open borders. So does Bernie Sanders. But Trump, if builds his wall, deports many illegal immigrants and pursues policies to bring back manufacturing, may actually do something for working class Americans: he will impose a degree of labour market and trade protectionism.
(7) even on foreign policy there are similarities between Sanders and Trump, and Trump generally still rejects the fanatic neoconservative foreign policy in the GOP.
The major differences: Trump wants low taxes; Bernie wants high progressive taxes. Bernie is in favour of universal health care; Trump once believed in that, but has retreated into market-based health care.
Of course, as I said, his rhetoric may very well be different from what he does in office.
The bottom line is that Trump will probably either:
Either way, Trump could pave the way for a populist Democrat to reject neoliberalism in the next election cycle.(1) crash America by fiscal austerity or continue its economic stagnation, and accelerate its catastrophic decline under neoliberalism (because Trump will impose an extreme form of neoliberalism, albeit maybe with some trade or labour protectionism) or
(2) smash up the current free trade consensus and actually impose some Keynesian stimulus, and trade and labour market protectionism.