Tag Archives: Bayesianism

One way that heuristic thinking works.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceN=1 survey tells me Cynthia Nixon will lose by a lot (no joke)Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Some philosophy of statistics. Short read. Not wonkish.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceThe fallacy of the excluded middle — statistical philosophy editionAndrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

According to Keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty – not quantifiable stochastic risk – which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations. Sometimes we ‘simply do not know.’ Keynes would not have accepted the view of Bayesian economists, according to whom expectations “tend to be distributed, for the same information set, about the prediction of the theory.” Keynes, rather, thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or...