Heterodox
If you had asked me to structure a bear market trade, a rise in breakevens would have been the bread and butter answer. However, things are starting to get awkward. Breakeven inflation is no longer cheap relative to where the Fed wants inflation to be (and inflation has averaged below where they wanted it for a considerable time). If one is bullish on oil, there is perhaps more room for headline inflation to rise. Otherwise, it will be hard for breakevens to follow the rise in nominal...
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