Russia is a strategic petrostate in a double sense. It is too big a part of global energy markets to permit Iran-style sanctions against Russian energy sales. Russia accounts for about 40 percent of Europe’s gas imports. Comprehensive sanctions would be too destabilizing to global energy markets and that would blow back on the United States in a significant way. China could not stand by and allow it to happen. Furthermore, Moscow, unlike some major oil and gas exporters, has proven capable...
Read More »War in Ukraine seems unlikely but, for the US and Europe, peace will taste bitter
If more U.S.-Russia talks are to happen, what should be on the table? Thomas Graham and Rajan Menon, writing in Politico Magazine, attempt to thread the needle of Russia’s Ukraine demands by considering a moratorium on the country’s future NATO membership amid a larger security compromise. “Now is the time to think big and imagine a new, more durable order, one that can encompass Russia,” they write. Others go further, with Anatol Lieven, writing in the Quincy Institute for Responsible...
Read More »IPA’s weekly links
Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. Some student-created infographic examples from the Communicating Economics website. Communicating Economics is a site with tools, tips, and videos of in-person college level lectures on, well, pretty much what the title says. It comes from the person behind Econ Films, whom I’ve worked with before and are very good at at what they do. A Belgian court has cleared the way for the remains of the first Prime Minister of an...
Read More »Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order — John J. Mearsheimer
AbstractThe liberal international order, erected after the Cold War, was crumbling by 2019. It was flawed from the start and thus destined to fail. The spread of liberal democracy around the globe—essential for building that order—faced strong resistance because of nationalism, which emphasizes self-determination. Some targeted states also resisted U.S. efforts to promote liberal democracy for security-related reasons. Additionally, problems arose because a liberal order calls for states to...
Read More »IPA’s weekly links
Ethiopian Prime Minister and Nobel Laureate Abiy Ahmed Ali Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work towards peace with Eritrea, though the committee acknowledged it’s still a work in progress. Ethiopia has also loosened some of its more repressive policies around security and journalism recently. Commentary from BBC starting around 6 minutes here (both stories h/t Laura Seay).For longer...
Read More »The Saker interviews A.B. Abrams about the geostrategic developments in Asia The Saker
I recently received a copy of a most interesting book, A.B. Abrams’ “Power and Primacy: the history of western intervention in Asia” and as soon as I started reading it I decided that I wanted to interview the author and ask him about what is taking place in Asia in our times. This was especially interesting to me since Putin has embarked on the Russian version of Obama’s “pivot to Asia“, with the big difference that Putin’s pivot has already proven to be a fantastic success, whereas...
Read More »Fareed Zakaria Woke Up? — Andrei Martyanov
Blowing a lead.Reminiscence of the FutureFareed Zakaria Woke Up? Andrei MartyanovSee alsoCheckpoint AsiaTrump Has Lost All Leverage With Iran Marko Marjanović Also at CATrump Remembers He’s the President, Tells Bolton, Pompeo to Dial It Back on Iran Erin Banco China’s State Media Tells Us It Picked the ‘Wrong Rival at the Wrong Time’ Teddy Ng
Read More »Pepe Escobar — The Eagle, the Bear and the Dragon
The eagle has conveniently forgotten that the original, Ancient Silk Road linked the dragon with the Roman empire for centuries – with no interlopers outside of Eurasia, muses Pepe Escobar. Consortium NewsPEPE ESCOBAR: The Eagle, the Bear and the Dragon
Read More »Alastair Crooke — It’s Not Just A Trade War; And It’s Not Just China…
So, what is going on? Well, the US military complex is ‘for real’ on this. They are gearing-up for the coming military-standoff with China. The constant harking on themes that China is stealing America’s technology, its knowhow and its data – and now the barrage of allegations about China ‘hacking’ and (shades of the Russiagate) interfering in US elections, essentially (but not wholly) is about shaping a casus belli versus China. The rude fact is that the US military were shocked to find...
Read More »Martin Sieff — Woodrow Wilson Goes to Europe: One Hundred Years of Delusional American Madness
We are now in the dubious position of “celebrating” – if that is the word – the 100th anniversary of US President Woodrow Wilson’s departure on December 4, 1918 on the liner SS George Washington for the Versailles Peace Conference where he was confident he would dictate his brilliant solutions that would end war in the world for all time. Historians and psychiatrists – including Dr. Sigmund Freud himself who co-authored a book on Wilson – have endlessly debated whether Wilson was sane and...
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