Tag Archives: jobs report

Scenes from the October jobs report: soft landing vs. continued slow deceleration  – by New Deal democrat  First, an editorial note: economic news is light this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two. That being said, let’s take a look at the most important trends, as I see them, from Friday’s employment report. The Big Question is, are we having a proverbial “soft landing?” Or is that just an illusory phase on...

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July. Here’s my in-depth synopsis....

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July. Here’s my in-depth synopsis....

Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary  – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators  continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. But the household side was not just weak, it was negative, with an...

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes that includes house prices, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report, and of course on Friday nonfarm payrolls. Speaking of which, 3 of the 5 short leading indicators that haven’t rolled over yet are included in the jobs report – construction and...

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports  – by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, laying out all of the short leading indicators, and concluding conditions have now been met for a recession to begin at any point in the next 6 months. There’s one graph I intended to use which didn’t make it through to the final published piece. Here it is: Typically recessions have only begun when 8 of the 10...

May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs.  Because of the pandemic, several million fewer players have been trying to sit in those chairs, leaving many empty. Additionally, there has been...

March jobs report: yet another strong showing for jobs and unemployment; while strong wage growth nevertheless likely lags inflation Here are the three main trends I was most interested in this month: 1. Is the pace of job growth beginning to decelerate?  2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? 3. Are the leading indicators in the report beginning to flag? The answers were: 1. The 6 month average of monthly gains, which...

February jobs report: a Big Win!, NDd There were two main trends I was looking for in this jobs report:  1. Is the pace of job growth beginning to decelerate?  2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating? The answers were: 1. The 6-month average of monthly gains, which was running at 548,000 in the 2nd half of 2021, increased in February to 582,000. 2. Wage growth, which averaged 5.9% in the 2nd half of 2021, is now up 6.7%...

January jobs report: huge gain in wages, huge upward revisions to past few months, limited Omicron impact Here are the three issues I was looking to see addressed in this jobs report: 1. Would last month’s “poor” 199,000 number of new jobs be revised higher? 2. Is wage growth holding up? Is it accelerating?3. In December, big decreases in the number of initial jobless claims were not reflected in a better jobs number. Would the big increase in...