Tag Archives: oil price

When we think of a "squeeze" we usually assume "short squeeze." However, the collapse in WTF price is apparently due to a long squeeze. The main lesson to be taken away is for financial speculators. If you are incapable of taking delivery of a futures contract, you should be asking yourself exactly why you are trading the product. One of the standard trade strategies I saw in sell side research back in the day was hedging breakeven trades with oil futures. Although that looked cute,...

Oil glut?SputnikSaudi Oil Industry at Risk as American, European Refiners Refusing Riyadh’s Crude – Reports

Russia rejected its OPEC+ partners' request late last week to further curtail its oil production next month because it understood that doing so would make its American shale rivals more competitive, which would in turn empower the US to continue weaponizing energy for geostrategic ends, thus eventually leading to a dangerous scenario that Moscow might have been powerless to reverse if it didn't act when it finally did.... One WorldRussia's Rejection Of OPEC+ Was The Result Of Cold...

Oil prices will need to trade at around $9 to $10 per barrel in the long run if gasoline is going to be able to compete with electric vehicles and renewable energy. That startling conclusion comes from BNP Paribas, which warned in a new report that crude oil is facing an existential and likely mortal threat from renewable energy and EVs.... Oilprice.comThe Threat That Will Send Oil Down To $10 Nick Cunningham

The effect of these events on oil prices has been more marked than OPEC+’s largely expected decision to extend the oil production cuts of 1.2 million bpd into the first quarter of 2020. Pricesspiked towards the end of June, when reports began emerging that insurers are upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and they haven’t fallen much from that level. The effect events in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman from the last two months have had on oil prices...

Last week’s attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman have ratcheted up tension in the Middle East. Lloyd’s List has reported a tenfold rise in war risk marine rates for tankers.... Oil PriceThe War Risk Premium For Oil Prices Ross McCracken

Maybe Iran holds the Trump card? Putting the West on notice.The Vineyard of the SakerWhy Trump now wants talks with Iran Pepe EscobarSee alsoReminiscence of the FuturePepe Escobar's Superb Segment On European Elections. Andrei Martyanov

The expiration of US waivers on sanctions targeting Iran and its foreign trade partners ends this Thursday. This will affect India, China, Japan, S. Korea and Turkey. While China is currently the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, both India and China have warned that such a step could destabilise the global energy market and the Middle East.... Sputnik InternationalIndia-China Oil Bloc Proposal a Good Step, Say Energy Analysts

The two countries have set up a joint working group that would identify subjects of cooperation in the energy sector, including ways to rein in global oil prices. The group, set up a month ago, will be co-chaired by a joint secretary in the oil ministry and his Chinese counterpart.China and India, second- and third-largest oil consumers, respectively, have been meaning to form a joint front for more than a decade to assert their weight in the oil market, dominated by a producers’ cartel,...

The bottom line is that despite the agreement in Vienna, the price of oil, in the short-term, is bound to go up. Analyses by BNP Paribas, among others, are adamant that supply problems with Venezuela and Libya, plus the proverbial “uncertainty” about the sanctions on Iran, lead to “oil fundamentals still…favorable for oil prices to rise over the next six months despite the OPEC+ decision.”... Take-away. Considering that in realpolitik terms Riyadh simply is not allowed any “decision” in oil...