Tag Archives: politics

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity Dan Guild follows presidential approval closely and uses it to model election outcomes, including State level as well as Congressional and Senate races. He’s been very consistent, and very good. For the past several months, his hair has been on fire about a real decline in Biden’s approval ratings, for example, here. He is particularly concerned about the big decline among...

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity Dan Guild follows presidential approval closely and uses it to model election outcomes, including State level as well as Congressional and Senate races. He’s been very consistent, and very good. For the past several months, his hair has been on fire about a real decline in Biden’s approval ratings, for example, here. He is particularly concerned about the big decline among...

None so indignant as the scoundrel. -mois Long ago and far away on a Pie-Supper Night at a one-room schoolhouse, the auctioneer cried, “I’ve got two, who’ll give me four? Now, I’ve got four, who’ll give me six?” Two, four and six bits that is. Stock market still works with the fictional one-eighth dollar. But little later on, up in #2 on the good ship, GM2 Cross told those of us there that day...

None so indignant as the scoundrel. -mois Long ago and far away on a Pie-Supper Night at a one-room schoolhouse, the auctioneer cried, “I’ve got two, who’ll give me four? Now, I’ve got four, who’ll give me six?” Two, four and six bits that is. Stock market still works with the fictional one-eighth dollar. But little later on, up in #2 on the good ship, GM2 Cross told those of us there that day...

(Dan here…from Wednesday, Nov.3) About last night I was going to write about motor vehicle sales (not good), but FRED is down for maintenance. I might put something up later whenever the site comes back online.  In the meantime, because a few people have asked me offline what I make of last nights results (at least in Virginia), so herewith is my take. Virginia turned out about exactly how I expected. The RWers are as pi**ed as...

(Dan here…from Wednesday, Nov.3) About last night I was going to write about motor vehicle sales (not good), but FRED is down for maintenance. I might put something up later whenever the site comes back online.  In the meantime, because a few people have asked me offline what I make of last nights results (at least in Virginia), so herewith is my take. Virginia turned out about exactly how I expected. The RWers are as pi**ed as...

Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun The Delta decline is probably over. Nationwide US cases are up 4000/day from one week ago. The Northeast and South census regions still show a decline, but West and Midwest regions show increases:  One week ago only 3 States were in the “increasing” category. Now the increasing trend States include: NJ, AL, CA, NV, AZ, CO, NM, ND, SD, MI, MN, IA, and NE. There are also slight...

Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun The Delta decline is probably over. Nationwide US cases are up 4000/day from one week ago. The Northeast and South census regions still show a decline, but West and Midwest regions show increases:  One week ago only 3 States were in the “increasing” category. Now the increasing trend States include: NJ, AL, CA, NV, AZ, CO, NM, ND, SD, MI, MN, IA, and NE. There are also slight...

There is no shortage of explanations for Democratic losses in yesterday’s elections.  Here is my quick partial list with a few comments.  Additions welcome. Basic structural explanations: Democratic losses are a standard mid-term loss for the President’s party.  [No doubt.  Without checking, I suspect the losses were larger than normal.] Democratic losses reflect standard retrospective voting – the pandemic recovery is going poorly, the...

There is no shortage of explanations for Democratic losses in yesterday’s elections.  Here is my quick partial list with a few comments.  Additions welcome. Basic structural explanations: Democratic losses are a standard mid-term loss for the President’s party.  [No doubt.  Without checking, I suspect the losses were larger than normal.] Democratic losses reflect standard retrospective voting – the pandemic recovery is going poorly, the...