Tag Archives: politics

Biden Narrowly Leads In Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin  Several months ago I forecast that “He who wins Prairie du Chien wins the White House.”  I also argued more generally that SW Wisconsin would determine Wisconsin. As of right now Trump is leading by about 2% in Wisconsin, and he seems to be ahead in most of the counties of SW Wisconsin, although Milwaukee has not yet come in.  And the county Prairie du Chien is in, Crawford Trump is leading 4620 to...

Two Questions about the Election  I am about to turn in and let the vote-counting continue without me.  It will be a troubled sleep since the election was mostly a disaster.  (Universal preschool won in Oregon, and if everywhere were like here I would be happier.) Meanwhile two questions: 1. What went wrong with the polls?  They didn’t do too badly in 2016; the popular vote was close to the consensus prediction, and the electoral college was a squeaker...

I promised myself not to forecast. I promised you that I would call Pennsylvania when I could. I get Trump ahead by about 700,000 and 2,000,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Assuming independents split (generous to Trump) Dem-Rep on absentees is about 50% so … I call Pennsylvania for Biden. (I may delete this post tomorrow). But I promised.

The final 2020 Presidential Electoral College forecast: Biden 350, Trump 181, 7 toss-ups Here is my final nowcast for the Presidential 2020 election, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. For this final installment, I am also including forecasts from 3 “fundamentals” models, including the one based on the Index of Leading Indicators that already...

Our beloved Constitution has flaws. Only a very few, but these few have cost the Nation dearly, and, unless corrected, will continue to do so. It is very possible that unless corrected, they will lead to the Nation’s demise. These flaws have been and are being taken advantage of by the worst among us, and used against the rest of us. The electoral college, that most undemocratic of bodies, has, in just sixteen years, seated two of our most incompetent...

Guest Author at Angry Bear is Professor Joel Eissenberg. Dr. Joel Eissenberg is a professor of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology and is probably a good person to ask questions concerning pandemics and bringing new vaccines to market. Ask questions  .  .   .  I am sure he will answer the same as he has commented in the Comments section. He also reviewed my layman’s piece on Moderna’s mRNA. I am hoping he will contribute at Angry Bear on healthcare from...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office This post was written in 2016 and slightly updated on Oct. 31, 2018, exactly two years ago today. The update started like this: According to this AP report today, alarms are already being raised about the rejection of many mail-in ballots in next week’s elections. Several of these […]

Been chatting (email) with a friend based in North Carolina. I thought I would share the comments at AB. ———————- I had to spend a good deal of time cleaning up after the remnants of Zeta. We got 5 inches of rain and 45 mph winds. I managed to get leaves out of the ditches and culverts before the storm so what came down didn’t do too much damage to the road. I had it cleaned up the next day. Our local power company is Western Carolina University – an odd...

“What you just Heard from Senator Graham is what we get The discussion of what is going on in Washington D.C. I do not care what is going on in Washington D.C. Because right now, Rome is on fire right here in South Carolina” Part of Jamie Harrison’s opening statement (above) – Jamie gets the stats right and focuses on the people – Lindsey focuses on liberal and conservative ideologies. [embedded content]If you have not heard Jamie Harrison speak before,...

The final 2020 Senate nowcast: 51 Democrats, 48 GOPers, 1 true toss-up Here are the final maps for the Senate, including all polls since October 1. I’ll post the Presidential nowcast separately later since it is going to be significantly longer this week. To refresh, In the first map below: – States where the race is closer than 3% are shown as toss-ups. – States where the range is between 3% to 5% are light colors. – States where the range is between 5%...