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Tag Archives: probability theory

Lars P. Syll — a question of economic methodology

Radical uncertainty is feature of a complex adaptive system a chief characteristic of which is emergence. Emergence is at the heart of evolution theory. Emergence in this context means that there is no way to predict what will emerge from a complex adaptive system based on investigation of the past and present state of the system. This implies that surprise is a characteristic of such systems. This also implies that complex adaptive systems are like open systems rather than closed,...

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Lars P. Syll — The limits of probabilistic reasoning

This is an important issue and some background is needed. This is a fundamental issue in epistemology. As such it involves not only mathematics and science but also philosophy and logic. It is not an exaggeration to assert that this debate has been going on for millennia around the world and it remains undecided, which implies the need for further exploration. To claim certainty under such circumstances is premature. Furthermore, the certainty of models comes from the logic and math....

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