Tag Archives: rigorous thinking

One way that heuristic thinking works.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceN=1 survey tells me Cynthia Nixon will lose by a lot (no joke)Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

We need courses devoted to such matters because we are living in a time where the dangers to informed and rational thought are not so much bad or sloppy thought but a poisoning of the flow of reliable information. It is not the transition from premises to conclusion that is often at fault but the premises themselves.... A sound argument is one whose logical form is valid and whose premises are true. The conclusion of a sound argument then follows from the premises and is true both...